u/microalpha26

▲ 6 r/EquityResearchIndia+1 crossposts

Granules India Breakout Incoming?

CMP: ~₹731

It is a textbook breakout retest setup.

Key levels:
• ₹730 → breakout support
• ₹745 → momentum confirmation
• ₹680–700 → major FVG demand zone

Structure still extremely bullish:

  • Higher highs + higher lows
  • Light pullback volume
  • No major distribution

Fundamentals improving fast:
• EBITDA margins: 21% → 24%
• PAT growth: +33%
• Debt free almost
• FDA overhang easing
• Europe CDMO + peptide business scaling

I've posted my trade setup take a look at it, if you feel something different do let me know

https://youtu.be/ooSrpMsQZXY

u/microalpha26 — 9 days ago

CMP: ~₹610

Context:
Massive run ₹300 → ₹896, followed by a ~45% correction to ₹489.
Monthly = still in distribution / recovery phase, not full bullish reversal yet.

₹489 bounce = strong demand below ₹500.

Key Levels:

  • Support (demand): ₹540–₹570 (FVG)
  • Major support: ₹489
  • Resistance: ₹613 (current), ₹650 (breakout), ₹700–₹720 (HTF shift)
  • CMP: ~₹610

Structure:

  • Weekly = downtrend, now relief rally into resistance
  • ₹613 = decision zone
  • Daily = sharp move → imbalance left below

Expectation:

  • Pullback into ₹540–₹570 → higher probability entry
  • Break ₹650 → structure shift
  • Until then → recovery, not reversal

Fundamentals (why it stands out):

  • Dual engine: residential + rental (DCCDL)
  • ~94% occupancy → strong recurring cash flow
  • Net cash balance sheet (~₹11,000 Cr cash)
  • ₹55,000 Cr unrecognised revenue → future earnings visibility
  • Dahlias slowdown = timing issue, not demand problem

Positioning vs peers:

  • Godrej → sales heavy
  • Prestige → cyclical
  • DLF → premium + rental stability + balance sheet strength

Trade Setup:

  • Entry: ₹560 (pullback + confirmation)
  • Stop Loss: ₹470
  • Target: ₹830
  • R:R: ~1:3

Check out my fleshed out analysis in the video below and let me know what you think about it as well

https://youtu.be/pB3Nwsi5wtM

u/microalpha26 — 25 days ago