u/mr_gacawa

The Upshot posted an analysis of national school enrollment trends this week. I took a minute to see where Seattle fits in. TLDR:

We are not alone. School districts across the country are facing declining enrollment and budget shortfalls due to demographic declines, and a crash in the fertility rate after the financial crisis. But, there are other factors, and some are hit harder than most.
Districts that were impacted the hardest had these factors in common:
- High housing costs driving families to the suburbs
- Competition from private schools that kept students after the pandemic
- Large immigrant populations in decline due to the recent crackdown

Here's where Seattle fits in:

Washington enrollment grew 2% over the past decade
Pudget Sound grew 1%
Seattle Enrollment dropped -8.2% 2019 - 2025 (the years available)

That puts us on par with the top 25 districts losing students, but nowhere near as bad as LA, Houston, and Chicago.

Check it out:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/upshot/public-schools-enrollment-crisis.html

https://www.seattleschools.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Seattle_Enrollment-Demogr-trends_March_2024_ada.pdf

Seattle vs National Trends

Are other high schools seeing reductions in their CTE programs? Does anyone know what is driving it?

For us, Career and Technical Pathways (CTE) classes have always been a crown jewel in Seattle High Schools. These classes in business, health sciences, and engineering help students discover their careers and have a proven track record in social mobility.

Many of the CTE classes our student had planned on taking are being cancelled. We haven't heard any communications on the reasons the changes. I am not sure if it's a trend from the last administration or the new one, and what's behind it.

Does anyone know if this is part of a bigger trend and the reasons behind it?

https://www.seattleschools.org/departments/cte/cte-programs-and-courses/

Seattle School Enrollment vs National Regional Trends