u/oilcan2012

0.8%. Seriously?

$32 billion. 140,000 jobs. And that's the potential economic prize from building enough sustainable aviation fuel in Canada to meet just 40% of our own aviation fuel demand by 2040. Those are the findings of a recent macroeconomic study conducted by Airbus and ICF. 

Now for the absurd part.

In 2026, global SAF production is expected to reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes, representing just 0.8% of global aviation fuel consumption. IATA sees SAF playing a major role in aviation's pathway toward net zero, yet production remains a fraction of what could ultimately be required. 

So why aren't we building more of it?

SAF doesn't appear to have an ambition problem. It has an industrialization problem. Producing fuel at meaningful scale requires far more than technology. It requires feedstock, infrastructure, enormous amounts of capital, supportive policy, competitive economics and organizations capable of bringing all of those pieces together.

IATA's own diagnosis is remarkably direct. It is calling for greater renewable energy and feedstock supply, open access to fuel infrastructure, better-sequenced production incentives and investment frameworks, and sufficient production at commercially viable prices. In other words, the challenge is increasingly about building the ecosystem required for scale. 

Meanwhile, SAF is increasingly becoming part of industrial strategy. Europe has created mandatory demand through ReFuelEU Aviation, while the broader conversation increasingly connects SAF with energy security, industrial competitiveness and domestic production capacity.

Which brings the conversation back to Canada.

Canada has many of the pieces required to build at scale: abundant forestry and agricultural resources, industrial expertise, supportive policy, carbon policy and economics, and an established aerospace sector. The opportunity lies in turning those advantages into industrial capacity.

There is another reason this matters. Canada already relies on foreign suppliers for approximately 35% of its conventional aviation fuel, and Airbus warns that without increased domestic capacity, reliance on biofuel imports could exceed 65% by 2030. Building SAF in Canada therefore isn't simply about emissions. It is increasingly about energy security, economic resilience and industrial capacity. 

This is an industrial opportunity hiding inside a supply shortage.

The global SAF race may ultimately be decided not by who talks most aggressively about decarbonization, nor by who owns the most interesting technology. It may be decided by which countries and organizations can assemble the feedstock, technology, capital, policy, infrastructure, carbon advantages and leadership required to build production at scale.

**Canada has the resources, the policy, the carbon opportunity and the industrial capability. Now it needs execution.

**The world is at 0.8%. Canada has been shown a $32 billion opportunity.

The opportunity now belongs to those capable of building it.

References:

• Airbus and ICF, Canadian SAF economic study
• IATA, Sustainable Aviation Fuel
• IATA, 2026 SAF production outlook
• Moeve, SAF and the future of aviation decarbonization

Commercial clean fuels projects rarely succeed or fail because of a single technology.

They succeed, or fail, because organizations are able to integrate engineering, project development, permitting, commercial strategy, capital, construction and operations into a disciplined execution process.

As the sustainable aviation fuel industry has matured, that reality has become increasingly difficult to ignore. Around the world, many projects have demonstrated technical promise. Far fewer have successfully progressed through the complex journey from concept to commercial development.

Today's announcement should be viewed in that context.

The appointments of Robert Pockar and Matthew Scorah are not simply additions to an organizational chart. They strengthen capabilities that sit at the heart of developing major industrial infrastructure.

Project Nahoonai remains Cielo's flagship clean fuels development project, but the disciplines required to advance it: engineering, project development, commercial planning and operations, are not unique to a single facility. They are the capabilities required to evaluate, integrate and deliver complex projects regardless of the specific technology, feedstock or jurisdiction involved.

Viewed alongside the CDL acquisition and the continued advancement of Project Nahoonai, today's appointments represent another step in the Company's organizational evolution.

Whether you're a shareholder, an industry participant or simply interested in the future of sustainable aviation fuel, one thing is becoming increasingly apparent.

The conversation is shifting.

Less about individual technologies.

More about the organizations capable of bringing those technologies together into projects that can be financed, developed, constructed and operated.

That is where long-term value is created.

Innovation creates opportunity. Leadership delivers it.

July 27, 2026 PR version:

https://cielows.com/corporate-updates/cielo-announces-executive-changes-and-stock-option-grants/

The future of decarbonization won't be determined by technology alone. It will be determined by the ability to transform innovation into financeable infrastructure.

In an excellent episode of Catching Carbon, hosts Jeff Holyoak and Luke Lana speak with John May, Managing Director of Hamilton Clark, about something every follower of industrial decarbonization should understand: financeability.

Traditional energy has benefited from mature financing frameworks built over decades. Sustainable fuels, carbon capture and other decarbonization projects are different. They advance through a disciplined development process: concept, engineering, FEED, commercial structuring, strategic partnerships and, ultimately, Final Investment Decision.

Every stage requires capital and time. More importantly, every stage is intended to reduce uncertainty.

Financeability isn't created in a single financing round. It is earned through the systematic accumulation of confidence.

That, to me, was the real takeaway. Capital isn't simply evaluating new technologies. It is learning how to finance an entirely new generation of infrastructure. The right partners, technical validation, commercial structure and execution become just as important as the technology itself.

Innovation may change the world. Financeability determines how quickly the world changes.

If you're interested in understanding how major decarbonization projects move from concept to construction, I think you'll find this conversation well worth your time.

Catching Carbon Podcast
Hosts: Jeff Holyoak & Luke Lana
Guest: John May, Managing Director, Hamilton Clark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VuDDaUvhNRs

u/CryptoDev1's "Project Nahoonai – The Complete Puzzle" prompted me to think more deeply about one particular piece: #14 – Financing & Partnerships.

The industry's focus is evolving from demand to financeability. Increasingly, confidence has become the foundation upon which capital is committed.

Financeability isn't simply about raising capital. It's about creating the confidence that attracts governments, Indigenous partners, lenders, strategic partners and long-term capital.

This is where disciplined execution begins to create a financeability advantage. Leadership. Engineering. Indigenous partnership. Carbon strategy. Commercial agreements. Execution. Each completed milestone systematically reduces risk, strengthens confidence and improves financeability.

A changing world is redefining capital, and systematic de-risking is becoming one of the strongest competitive advantages a project can build.

One passage from a recent Aerospace Global News article stood out to me:

"The new question for governments is not simply how much SAF airlines should be required to use. It is where that fuel will come from, who controls the feedstocks and production assets, and whether enough domestic or allied capacity can be built before the next supply shock arrives."

At the same time, Fortune Business Insights notes that IATA estimates SAF could account for approximately 65% of the emissions reductions required for aviation to reach net-zero by 2050, while highlighting that a significant increase in production will be required to meet future demand.

Taken together, these observations point to a discussion that is increasingly focused on feedstocks, production assets, infrastructure, and capacity.

Viewed through that lens, the challenge may be less about creating demand and more about building the capability required to meet it.

Food for thought?

Sources

• Aerospace Global News – SAF, Energy Security & Climate Aviation https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/saf-energy-security-climate-aviation/

• Fortune Business Insights – Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market Forecast

https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/sustainable-aviation-fuel-saf-market-111563

 

You will need to create an account. Email and password. Matt Scorah Sky Talk presentation. Link below.

https://www.icao.tv

The 10 most important strategic messages Matt communicated at ICAO.

🎤 ICAO CLIMATE WEEK 2026
Matt Scorah’s Most Important Takeaways
CENTER IMAGE
Large realistic image of:
Sustainable Aviation Fuel facility
Forest biomass
Modern jet aircraft
Carbon capture infrastructure
Prince George, BC backdrop
Tano T’enneh partnership representation

🟢 1. CIELO IS A PROJECT DEVELOPER
Not a technology company.
✔ Technology Independent
✔ Project Integration
✔ Infrastructure Focus
✔ Execution Driven

🔵 2. PROVEN TECHNOLOGY ONLY
Matt specifically referenced:
TRL 7–8 Technologies
✔ Commercially demonstrated
✔ Reduced technology risk
✔ Focus on deployment

🌲 3. WASTE BECOMES A RESOURCE
“We do not see biomass as a waste problem.”
Instead:
Biomass = Carbon Resource
✔ Forestry Residuals
✔ Waste Wood
✔ End-of-Life Wood Products

✈️** 4. AVIATION HAS THE BIGGEST CHALLENG**E
Why SAF?
✔ Immediate solution
✔ Existing infrastructure
✔ Global demand growth
✔ Decarbonization pathway

📈 5. THE SUPPLY GAP IS MASSIVE
Current SAF Facilities
≈ 30
Projected Required Facilities
≈ 7,000
Demand is not the problem.
Supply is.

🚂 6. WHY PRINCE GEORGE?
✔ Forestry Capital of Northern BC
✔ CN Rail Access
✔ Industrial Workforce
✔ Existing Infrastructure
✔ Biomass Availability
✔ Low Carbon Electricity

⚡ 7. 98% CLEAN ELECTRICITY
British Columbia Advantage
✔ Hydro Power
✔ Renewable Electricity
✔ Lower Carbon Intensity
✔ Strong Project Economics

⚙️** 8. GASIFICATION → SYNGAS → SA**F
Confirmed Process Pathway
Forestry Biomass
⬇
Gasification
⬇
Syngas
⬇
SAF + Renewable Fuels

♻️** 9. CARBON CAPTURE IS BUILT I**N
The process naturally creates CO₂
Cielo’s objective:
✔ Capture CO₂
✔ Permanently Store CO₂
✔ Lower Carbon Intensity
✔ Achieve Carbon-Negative Fuel

🤝 10. INDIGENOUS PARTNERSHIP IS FOUNDATIONAL
Not Consultation
Partnership
✔ Shared Development
✔ Long-Term Participation
✔ Economic Benefit
✔ Stewardship

🏆 MATT’S BIGGEST MESSAGE
“This Is Not A Technology Problem”
Success Requires:
✅ Feedstock
✅ Infrastructure
✅ Financing
✅ Policy Support
✅ Indigenous Partnerships
✅ Carbon Management
✅ Proven Technology

KEY TAKEAWAY
PROJECT NAHOONAI
Carbon-Negative SAF
●
Permanent Carbon Storage
●
Indigenous Partnership
●
Proven Technology
●
Infrastructure Development
“Project Nahoonai is being positioned as an integrated carbon-negative infrastructure project built around proven technologies, abundant waste biomass, Indigenous partnership, and permanent carbon storage.”

Important Disclaimer:
My posts are not financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. I am simply an individual on Reddit and X sharing my personal opinions, and they should be interpreted as such.

I do, however, want to emphasize that you are welcome to share this content across any form of media, including Reddit, X/Twitter, stock chat rooms, etc.

Understanding The Potential Economic Value Layers

Layer 1

✈️ SAF Revenue

Produce fuel and sell SAF

Layer 2

🌿 BC LCFS Credits

Lower carbon intensity may generate additional credit value.

Layer 3

🇨🇦 Clean Fuel Regulation Credits

Federal compliance-fuel incentives.

Layer 4

🏗️ CCUS Investment Tax Credits

Potential federal incentives for qualifying carbon-capture infrastructure.

Layer 5

♻️ Carbon Credit Markets

Potential value from permanent carbon storage.

WHY THE CDL ATLAS DATA LIBRARY MATTERS

The Atlas is not revenue.

The Atlas is not a tax credit.

The Atlas may help answer one critical question:

Where does the carbon go?

PROJECT NAHOONAI

Waste

⬇️

SAF

CCUS

Carbon Storage

Carbon Credits

Tax Incentives

THE BIG QUESTION

What percentage of Project Nahoonai’s future value could come from:

✈️ SAF Production

versus

♻️ Carbon Capture, Storage & Carbon Economics?

KEY TAKEAWAY

The SAF project may attract attention.

The carbon strategy may be where a significant portion of the long-term economic opportunity exists.

Important Disclaimer:
My posts are not financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. I am simply an individual on Reddit and X sharing my personal opinions, and they should be interpreted as such.

I do, however, want to emphasize that you are welcome to share this content across any form of media, including Reddit, X/Twitter, stock chat rooms, etc.

Why Governments, Industry, and Capital Markets Are Paying Attention?

One of the reasons I found this topic worth exploring is that carbon increasingly appears to be evolving from an environmental consideration into an economic one.

Over the past decade, governments, industries, airlines, energy producers, infrastructure investors, and capital markets have devoted growing attention to carbon-related risks, opportunities, reporting requirements, and long-term management strategies. Regardless of one's views on specific policies or market mechanisms, the broader trend is difficult to ignore: carbon is increasingly being measured, managed, verified, and incorporated into decision-making across large segments of the global economy.

To me, that raises an interesting question.

If carbon continues to influence how industries operate, how capital is allocated, and how infrastructure is developed, what systems and infrastructure will ultimately be required to support that future?

Viewed through that lens, projects such as Nahoonai become increasingly relevant as they appear to sit at the convergence of several long-term trends: renewable fuels, carbon management, infrastructure development, Indigenous partnership, and long-term stewardship.

What I find particularly interesting is that these trends are often discussed independently. Renewable fuels are one conversation. Carbon management is another. Infrastructure development is another. Indigenous economic participation is another. 

***** Increasingly, however, the boundaries between these discussions appear to be blurring as governments, industries, communities, and capital providers search for solutions that can create value across multiple objectives at the same time.

The poster is not intended to predict outcomes, assign future values, or suggest that any particular project is guaranteed to succeed. Rather, it is intended to encourage discussion around a broader idea:

As the world's largest institutions increasingly focus on carbon management, energy security, infrastructure resilience, and long-term sustainability, the discussion is increasingly shifting beyond emissions alone and toward the infrastructure required to measure, manage, verify, and permanently store carbon.

That, in my view, may be one of the more interesting developments emerging within the broader energy transition today.

In previous posts, much of the discussion surrounding Project Nahoonai has focused on individual developments.

• CDL.
• Kaush Rakhit.
• Rob Pockar.
• Matt Scorah.
• Tano T'enneh Enterprises.
• SAF.
• CCUS.

Viewed individually, each development is interesting in its own right.

However, major infrastructure projects are rarely evaluated through a single lens. They are evaluated on whether uncertainty is being systematically reduced across multiple dimensions over time.

• Engineering.
• Economics.
• Execution.
• Partnerships.
• Environmental value.

In other words, financeability.

The poster isn't intended to suggest that Project Nahoonai has reached its destination.

Rather, it reflects a broader observation: many of the recent developments being discussed no longer appear as isolated events. Increasingly, they can be viewed as interconnected pieces that may be strengthening the project's strategic, operational, and long-term foundation.

Whether that ultimately translates into a successful project remains a matter of execution.

However, the more interesting question may be whether investors are beginning to witness the assembly of the elements that sophisticated infrastructure capital typically looks for when evaluating large-scale infrastructure opportunities.

That may be one of the more important discussions taking place around Cielo today.

First, credit where credit is due. u/CryptoDev1 has done an exceptional job breaking down many of the individual pieces that appear to be coming together around Project Nahoonai — from leadership and Indigenous partnership to SAF, infrastructure, and long-term strategic positioning.

What I find increasingly interesting is stepping back and looking at the bigger picture.

Major infrastructure opportunities are rarely created by a single technology, a single policy, or a single market. They emerge when multiple independent forces begin moving in the same direction.

Viewed through that lens, Project Nahoonai appears to sit at the intersection of aviation decarbonization, Indigenous partnership, carbon economics, Canadian industrial policy, abundant biomass resources, strategic CN logistics infrastructure, and a growing concentration of industry, operational, and infrastructure experience.

Any one of these factors may be interesting on its own.

Together, they become increasingly difficult to ignore.

Perhaps the most important observation is that the opportunity may extend beyond SAF itself. SAF may be the initial destination, but the broader platform could continue to evolve alongside carbon markets, CCUS, renewable fuels, and future low-carbon products.

That, to me, is what makes the "Why Now?" question so compelling.

Kaush Rakhit's career trajectory and accomplishments are extraordinary in their own right.

People who have spent decades around major energy companies, large-scale infrastructure projects, boardrooms, acquisitions, and industry cycles develop a unique ability to recognize both risk and opportunity long before others do.

That is what makes this poster so compelling.

The question isn't what Kaush has accomplished. The question is what he sees and knows.

Because whatever that is, it was compelling enough to earn his time, reputation, and involvement.