u/pantyinthe203

MLB board notes from StatcastEdge.

Quick board notes for 2026-05-18:

- BOS @ KC: UNDER 9.0 (STRONG)

- OAK @ LAA: UNDER 9.0 (STRONG)

- HR profile: Xander Bogaerts +1300 (SD) — 7 HR in 45 G, 0.741 OPS

- HR profile: J.P. Crawford +850 (SEA) — 6 HR in 40 G, 0.737 OPS

I’ll track results after finals and keep the archive public.

Full board + public results archive:

https://www.statcastedge.com/mlb

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NBA board notes for 2026-05-17:

Public forecast:

- CLE/DET Over 206.0

- Market price: -105

- Tip: 8:00 PM ET

Small prop:

- Sam Merrill Over 11.5 PRA +175 at Bovada

- 0.5u max for me

- Main risk: minutes/news, role change, foul trouble, or price moving away

High-variance props:

- Sam Merrill Over 9.5 Points +256

- Jalen Duren Over 17.5 PA +225

- Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 Assists +220

These are not locks. The number matters, and I’d keep the plus-money prop stuff small.

NBA board:

https://nbahub-nine.vercel.app/nba

MLB board notes for 2026-05-17:

Main board:

- BOS@ATL: Braves -1.5

- SF@OAK: Under 9.5

- CIN@CLE: Guardians -1.5

F5 board:

- SF@OAK: OAK F5 -135

- MIL@MIN: MIN F5 -105

- TOR@DET: DET F5 +118

Tiny HR card only:

- Mickey Moniak HR +320

- Kazuma Okamoto HR +390

- Jonathan Aranda HR +500

HR stuff is high-variance entertainment, not normal-sized betting. I’d keep that tiny and pass if the price moves away.

Full MLB board + results archive:

https://www.statcastedge.com/mlb

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NBAHub is free to try for 7 days — today’s public NBA forecast + player projection board is up.

https://nbahub-nine.vercel.app/nba

Today’s NBA model card I’m watching:

Public forecast

- Pistons/Cavaliers OVER 210.0 (-108, DraftKings)

Tempo and shot quality are the swing factors. Small play, number matters.

Player projection

- Sam Merrill OVER 7.5 Points (+160, Bovada)

Big model-market gap, but still 0.5u max. Minutes/role/news are the risk.

High-variance board — tiny only

- Jalen Duren OVER 14.5 Points +285

- Tobias Harris UNDER 20.5 PR +225

- Jarrett Allen OVER 24.5 PRA +252

High-variance props are not core forecasts. Useful for tracking/model review, not normal sizing.

Misses stay up. If the price moves away, I pass.

3 days free? Better: StatcastEdge is free to try for 7 days — MLB + NBA access included.

https://www.statcastedge.com/mlb

Today’s MLB model card I’m watching:

Main forecasts

- SF/OAK UNDER 10.0 (+107, LowVig.ag)

- Braves -1.5 vs BOS (+150, BetMGM)

- Pirates -1.5 vs PHI (+170, BetRivers)

Player projection

- Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-147 market consensus)

My number is aggressive here, but I’m still treating it as a small prop and not chasing if the price moves.

HR moonshot card — tiny only

- Kyle Schwarber HR +300 (PHI)

- Mickey Moniak HR +280 (COL)

- James Wood HR +330 (WSH)

HR markets are entertainment/high-variance. 0.25u max for me there. Main card is the cleaner read; props/HRs need tiny sizing and price discipline.

Misses stay up. Numbers can move. If the price is gone, I pass.

MLB board for May 14. Keeping this consolidated instead of spamming separate posts.

Main forecast board:

- DET/NYM Under 7.5

- SF/LAD Under 8.0

- STL/OAK Under 9.5

Theme: my numbers are showing multiple unders sitting 1+ runs below the market. Not a lock angle — totals can get ugly fast if a starter exits early or bullpens get stressed.

Player projection:

- Liam Hicks over 0.5 RBIs (+182 market consensus)

- My number: 64.7%

- Fair price: around -183

- Playable to: -172

What would make this wrong: low lineup traffic in front of him, early pinch-hit risk, or the game script turning lower-event than projected.

Tiny HR card:

- Byron Buxton HR +290

- Kyle Schwarber HR +370

- Shea Langeliers HR +305

HRs are high-variance. Tiny only, and I would pass if the price is gone.

Early-inning board:

- PHI/BOS F5: BOS -102

- CHC/ATL F5: ATL -160

- SEA/HOU F5: HOU +105

- SF/LAD NRFI -128

Same rule: if the number moves past the playable range, I’m not chasing it.

Only one NBA game tonight, so I’m keeping this to the high-variance player board.

Props I’m watching:

- Tobias Harris UNDER 21.5 points + rebounds (+225)

- Jalen Duren OVER 15.5 points (+210)

- Sam Merrill OVER 2.5 threes (+466)

This is not a core side/total card. These are longshot-style player projections, so tiny sizing only.

The prices are the whole point here. If they move materially worse, I’d rather pass than pretend it’s the same play.

What would make me wrong: rotations/usage changing, foul trouble, or Cleveland/Detroit turning this into a lower-minutes game script for one of these guys.

Posting the whole MLB card in one spot instead of splitting it up.

Main plays:

- Pirates -1.5 (+120) vs Rockies

- Tigers/Mets UNDER 8.0 (-102)

- Cardinals/Athletics UNDER 10.0 (-103)

F5 looks:

- Rangers F5 (-110) vs Diamondbacks

- Pirates F5 (-166) vs Rockies

- Mets F5 (+106) vs Tigers

Player prop:

- Ben Rice over 0.5 RBI (+155)

HR moonshot parlay:

- Kyle Schwarber HR (+245)

- James Wood HR (+350)

- Byron Buxton HR (+335)

The main card and F5 board are the cleaner stuff. The RBI prop and HR parlay are high variance by nature, so I’d keep those tiny.

What would make me wrong: early bullpen chaos on the unders, Pirates not getting enough separation for the run line, or the HR legs just doing normal HR-prop variance things.

MIN/SAS board for tonight. Small sizes, number-sensitive.

Main play:

- Timberwolves +10.5 at Spurs -110

I make this closer than the market. I would rather take the points than chase the Spurs ML tax.

Prop:

- Rudy Gobert OVER 7.5 Points -112 at FanDuel

Small prop only, 0.5u max. Biggest risk is minutes/role, foul trouble, injury news, or the price moving away.

High-variance notes only:

- Julius Randle OVER 24.5 PA +230

- Rudy Gobert OVER 10.5 Points +250

- Julian Champagnie OVER 16.5 PR +200

Those plus-money props are not core sizing for me. I treat them as tiny/educational tracking plays, not something to force.

May 12 MLB board — keeping this number-sensitive, not chasing names.

Main board:

- Dodgers -1.5 vs Giants

- Cardinals/Athletics UNDER 10.0

- Pirates -1.5 vs Rockies

Player prop:

- Daniel Schneemann OVER 0.5 Total Bases -148

Small prop only. I make it closer to -276, but I would rather pass than chase if the price moves away.

Tiny HR card:

- Ben Rice HR +330

- Kyle Schwarber HR +255

- Munetaka Murakami HR +235

HRs are entertainment/high variance for me, not normal-sized bets. Biggest risk on the main board is paying stale numbers — if the line moves, I pass.

NBA card I’m tracking tonight — all small sizing, no locks.

Main play:

DET/CLE OVER 213.5 -105 at DraftKings

- I make this closer to 223. Pace and shot quality are the main reasons I’m interested.

- 0.5u max for me.

- What makes me wrong: playoff pace slows down, late injury/news shift, or Cleveland drags it into half-court possessions all night.

Prop:

Sam Merrill OVER 7.5 PRA -115 at BetMGM

- Big market gap on my numbers, but I would not treat the fair price as gospel.

- 0.5u max.

- What makes me wrong: minutes/role change, foul trouble, injury news, or the price moving away.

High-variance / tiny-only board:

Tobias Harris UNDER 21.5 PR +210

Jalen Duren OVER 17.5 Points +304

Deandre Ayton OVER 11.5 Points +220

Combined model price: +3907

Those last three are research/tracking only, not core forecast sizing. If playing them, tiny stake only.

MLB HR moonshot card - tiny only

Aaron Judge HR +220 (NYY)

16 HR in 41 G, 1.043 OPS

Yordan Alvarez HR +280 (HOU)

13 HR in 41 G, 1.064 OPS

Casey Schmitt HR +475 (SF)

6 HR in 33 G, 0.843 OPS

HR markets are high-variance entertainment, not normal-sized bets.

0.25u max for me. If the price disappears, I pass.