r/MLB_Bets

Hey everyone, Dimitri here again.

Been a few days since my last update. Work got a little busy, but I've still been running the predictions and keeping track of everything.

For anyone new, I'm building my own MLB and NHL prediction models in Python, with the goal of eventually reaching 60% accuracy over a meaningful number of predictions.

The NHL side has been improving, but MLB has been a different story lol.

Here's the MLB record since October 6:

Moneyline: 2–6

Over/Under: 2–4–2

Combined: 4–10–2

Definitely not where I want it to be.

The last three days were:

October 8: 1–1

October 9: No MLB predictions

October 10: 1–1

On October 10, the model correctly picked Cleveland ML against Chicago, but missed the Over 7.

I've been looking into better starting pitcher information, bullpen workload and lineup data. The main thing is making sure any changes actually improve the model in historical testing.

Today's free model picks:

Milwaukee Brewers ML vs Dodgers — recorded at -115

Model probability: 53.1%

Over 6 runs — recorded at -115

I'm not going to pretend the model has MLB figured out yet. These are predictions I'm tracking

Anyone else on Milwaukee tonight, or are you leaning Dodgers?

Leahy is pitching at Coors tonight and the K line has been discounted because of the park. That discount is actually the value.

When Colorado faces Leahy's curveball, they whiff at 36.2% — his season average on that pitch is 26.3%. His slider gets a 35.7% whiff rate from this lineup versus 22% against the rest of the league. Same pattern on the changeup at 33.8% versus 30.3% normal. Colorado specifically struggles with his breaking ball mix.

Last time he faced them was August 7th — 8 Ks in 5 innings at that same park.

The model is projecting 4.5 Ks on a plus-money line, which means the Coors park factor has already pushed the number down enough to create value rather than scare us off.

Anyone else looking at the COL whiff data here or do you just fade K props at Coors on principle?

MLB model update: Still struggling with moneylines. Here's today's Brewers pick

MLB Pick'em Board Hit Rates 📊

Kyle Leahy 4+ Strikeouts +140 — Colorado Whiffs on His Breaking Balls at 36% Tonight

How do we feel about this?