u/HinduKushOG

First game of the playoffs and Atlanta sends their ace. Chris Sale has put together one of the best seasons of his career — 2.16 ERA, 14-9, and strikeout metrics that have been elite all year. Now he gets a home playoff start at Truist Park with everything on the line.

The data behind it: Sale is sitting at 30.9% K rate with a 30.4% Whiff% and 36.5% Chase% (league average is 28%). Batters are genuinely struggling to make contact against him. The model projects 9.8 strikeouts tonight — a +2.3 edge over the 7.5 book line at +3.9% EV.

The matchup sets up well. Philadelphia's projected lineup comes out with 5 left-handed bats, which plays directly into Sale's hands as a lefty. Schwarber is 43.6% vulnerable to his arsenal, and his changeup is generating 31.4% whiff rate against PHI hitters specifically. The only real danger in the lineup is Bryce Harper (.405 wOBA vs his stuff) — but you can pitch around one bat.

Recent ceiling: 10 Ks vs CIN, 11 Ks vs LAD, 9 Ks vs ARI. He's gone over this line in 12 of 27 starts and the model has him well clear tonight. He's also rated durable — projects a full outing, which gives him every opportunity to pile up the number.

PHI has faced him twice this year (6K and 7K in both regular season meetings) but playoff Sale on home turf with a 2.16 ERA feels different. Aces tend to lock in when October arrives.

+105 on the best pitcher in this series opening Game 1. Running it.

Anyone else on Sale tonight?

Mark Andrews TD +115 vs Dallas — here's the full breakdown from the TD Zone.

The matchup alignment is the story. Andrews targets inside the 5 lean to the right (4 of 7 looks). DAL ranks 31st of 32 defending the right side inside the 5 — 90% of targets to that spot went for a touchdown this season. That's not just a soft defense generally, that's a soft defense in the exact zone Andrews operates in most.

The usage backs it up. Andrews draws 20% of BAL's red-zone targets — the TE average is 10%. He's the clear primary red-zone option in this offense. 4 of his 6 touchdowns this season came inside the 20, and he's logged 10 goal-line touches. The volume is real.

Game script adds more. BAL's implied team total is 28.2 — among the highest on today's slate — with a game total of 53.0 sitting in shootout range. DAL's red-zone TD rate is 90% (31st of 32), meaning when teams get down there, they score. BAL favored by 3.5 with a high total means they'll have the ball and be pushing for points.

Model projects a 34% chance Andrews scores — up 13 points from his season baseline of 21% — driven almost entirely by the goal-line usage and the DAL matchup softness at his exact spot.

+115 on the primary red-zone TE, in a shootout, against the league's worst red-zone defense, at his preferred targeting location.

Anyone else on Andrews tonight?

Leahy is pitching at Coors tonight and the K line has been discounted because of the park. That discount is actually the value.

When Colorado faces Leahy's curveball, they whiff at 36.2% — his season average on that pitch is 26.3%. His slider gets a 35.7% whiff rate from this lineup versus 22% against the rest of the league. Same pattern on the changeup at 33.8% versus 30.3% normal. Colorado specifically struggles with his breaking ball mix.

Last time he faced them was August 7th — 8 Ks in 5 innings at that same park.

The model is projecting 4.5 Ks on a plus-money line, which means the Coors park factor has already pushed the number down enough to create value rather than scare us off.

Anyone else looking at the COL whiff data here or do you just fade K props at Coors on principle?

Harrison has hit the strikeout over in 13 of 21 starts this season. Tonight's matchup against the Cubs sets up to be another one.

His K rate sits at 30% with a CSW% of 30.7%. The Changeup is the K weapon against this lineup — Cubs whiff 31.9% on it. His Slurve carries a 28.4% whiff rate overall. Chase% is 33% against a league average of 28%, and his SwStr% is 12.9% (league average 11%). His xwOBA-a is .280 versus .315 league average — contact quality against him remains suppressed all season.

The lineup projection has 6 righties, which plays directly into Harrison's strength — he carries a 31.1% K rate against right-handed hitters. Most vulnerable tonight: Michael Busch at 45% K rate against his arsenal, Miguel Amaya at 41.5%, and Michael Conforto at 38.4%. Worth flagging Seiya Suzuki at .429 wOBA vs his stuff — the one danger bat in the lineup.

Context: park suppresses Ks by 2%, Cubs striking out at 21.8% against left-handed pitching, projector has him around 85 pitches and 4.9 innings.

2.79 ERA, 10-3 on the season. Anyone else breaking this one down tonight?

Gausman has an interesting matchup against the Reds today. His splitter is his best weapon and Cincinnati hitters have been missing on it at a high rate this season — around 44% of swings against it.

He throws that splitter about 38% of the time, so it comes up often. His slider is generating around 34% whiff rate against Reds hitters too. Overall his swinging strike rate sits at 12.3% compared to a league average of 11%, and his chase rate is 34% against a league average of 28%.

Looking at the Cincinnati order, Tyler Stephenson, Eugenio Suárez, and Elly De La Cruz all have high swing-and-miss rates against his pitching. The order also skews heavily right-handed, which is his stronger platoon side — he strikes out righties at a 26% clip compared to 21% against lefties.

His last three starts went 6 Ks in 7 innings against Arizona, 7 Ks in 4.7 innings against Washington, and 4 Ks in 7 innings against Kansas City.

Does anyone think he has a big strikeout day against this Reds order?

PLAY: Gausman over 6.5Ks +110

Looked into this matchup and the numbers against Rogers' primary pitch caught my attention.

Rogers throws his four-seam fastball 46% of the time against right-handed batters. Right-handed hitters are posting a .447 slugging percentage against it with 10 home runs allowed on that pitch alone this season.

Walker against left-handed pitching this season is hitting .285 with a .502 slugging percentage and .846 on-base plus slugging. Breaking it down by pitch type against lefties:

Against the four-seam fastball across 462 pitches — .500 slugging, 9 home runs, 57.5% hard hit rate.

Against the changeup across 189 pitches — .528 slugging, 3 home runs, 50% hard hit rate.

Against the sweeper across 284 pitches — 4 home runs, .429 slugging.

Against the sinker across 413 pitches — 3 home runs, 47.7% hard hit rate.

The theme across every pitch type is consistent hard contact and home run production. Rogers' most-used pitch is the one Walker does the most damage on, and he has power numbers against everything else in the arsenal too.

Career sample against Rogers is just 1 at-bat so nothing to draw from there.

Does Walker give Rogers problems today?

Looked into this matchup ahead of today's game and one number stood out.

Vásquez throws his cutter about 24% of the time and lefties are hitting .333 against it with a .645 slugging percentage and 6 home runs allowed on the pitch this season. It is his second most-used pitch and it is getting hit hard.

Cruz against right-handed pitching this season is hitting .260 with a .491 slugging percentage and an .839 on-base plus slugging. Against Vásquez specifically, he is posting a 1.000 slugging percentage and .667 isolated power on the cutter in 82 plate appearances, with 3 home runs. On the four-seam fastball across 377 plate appearances he has 5 home runs and a 68.8% hard hit rate. On the sinker, his hard hit rate jumps to 81.8%.

Career sample against Vásquez is only 4 at-bats so it is too small to lean on, but he is 3 for 4 in those matchups.

The consistent theme across every pitch type is hard contact. He is not getting fooled — he is squaring the ball up.

Does Cruz do damage against Vásquez today? And the hard hit rate on the sinker (81.8%) shows he's not getting fooled by the soft stuff either.

ONEIL CRUZ HR 1+ HR +450

Looked into this matchup ahead of the Cardinals vs Orioles game and the pitch-level data caught my attention.

Bassitt this season:

• ERA 5.08, WHIP 1.62
• Heavy sinker usage (37%) but lefties are hitting .331 against it with a .432 slugging
• 4-seam fastball (7% usage) is getting destroyed — .467 BA, 1.067 SLG allowed

Burleson vs each pitch type against righties:

• vs Sinker: .322 BA | .500 SLG | 3 home runs | 5.3% strikeout rate — barely missing
• vs Curveball: .531 SLG | 3 home runs | 57.9% hard hit rate
• vs Cutter: .485 SLG | 3 home runs | 50% hard hit rate
• vs 4-Seam FB: .540 SLG | 8 home runs | 64.8% hard hit rate

Season line for Burleson: .291/.356/.488

Small career sample against Bassitt (5 at-bats) but he's already homered once with a 2.000 OPS in those appearances.

The consistent theme is hard contact across all four pitch types. The 5.3% strikeout rate against the sinker stands out — he's not missing it, he's hitting it.

Does Burleson give Bassitt problems today?

Ran Ashcraft through the Pitcher Zone ahead of tonight's start at Petco and the model is landing hard on the over.

The numbers:

• Season K rate: 26.4% | Chase%: 36.9% (MLB avg 28%)
• SwStr%: 12.3% (above league avg)
• Curveball whiff: 38.6% — primary strikeout pitch
• Slider whiff: 32.8% specifically vs SD hitters

Matchup factors:

• Petco Park K factor: +5%
• SD K% vs RHP: 21.6%
• Most vulnerable in lineup: Campusano (40.9%), Tatis Jr. (37.1%), Bogaerts (35.2%)

Workload:

• Projected ~88 pitches / 6.7 IP
• Durable — has gone 8.0 IP vs DET and 9.0 IP / 10 Ks vs MIA in recent starts
• 13-5, 3.68 ERA on the season

Model projection: 8 Ks vs a book line of 5.5 (+2.5 gap)

Lineup leans toward his tougher side (5 RHB), but his curveball is giving lefties fits too at a 28.6% K rate.

Curious what others think — does Ashcraft get to 6+ Ks against this Padres lineup?

We're taking 6+ Strikeouts at +125 (Fanduel) and banking that EV Edge!!

Looking at the pitch data for today's Mariners/Brewers game. Gilbert has one of the deeper arsenals in the league and this MIL matchup sets up well for Ks.

Three legitimate put-away pitches:

• Splitter (14.2% usage): 39.5% whiff rate overall, MIL whiffs 33% on it
• Sweeper (7.5% usage): 35.7% whiff rate, MIL 30.3%
• Slider (24.7% usage): 33.3% whiff rate, MIL 32.7%

The depth is what makes him dangerous — he can sequence through a lineup multiple times without becoming predictable.

Season swing metrics:

• SwStr%: 13.9% (MLB avg: 11.0%)
• Chase%: 32.7% (MLB avg: 28%)
• Whiff%: 27.4% (MLB avg: 25%)

Last 5 starts: 10 Ks vs SF, 7 Ks vs NYY, 6 Ks vs TBR, 6 Ks vs MIN. Four of his last five he's been highly productive on strikeouts.

MIL lineup vulnerability:

• Garrett Mitchell: 45.9% projected K rate
• Joey Ortiz: 38.5%
• William Contreras: 38.1%

The 10-K game against San Francisco last month shows what his ceiling looks like when the splitter and slider are working together. Brewers lineup profiles similarly to what he dominated that day.

Does Gilbert get to 6+ against Milwaukee, or does MIL make enough contact to keep him in check?

Carlos Rodón @ BAL — breaking down the strikeout case

Pitching data for today's Yankees/Orioles game sets up well for Rodón to rack up strikeouts against this Baltimore lineup.

The K weapon: His slider (24.3% usage) generates a 37.8% whiff rate from BAL hitters. The changeup is nearly as dangerous — 40.9% overall whiff rate, 33.6% specifically vs Baltimore.

Season strikeout metrics:

• K Rate: 26.8%
• SwStr%: 12.7% (MLB avg: 11.0%)
• Over his K line: 7 of 9 starts this season

Last 5 starts: 7, 7, 7, 5, 6 Ks — averaging 6.4 per outing. The 4.5 line is well below his floor recently.

BAL lineup vulnerability:

• Carlos Narváez: 48.3% projected K rate
• Coby Mayo: 46.4%
• Tyler O'Neill: 42.7%

Three of the top of Baltimore's order are among the most K-prone matchups in the lineup. Rodón has the pitch mix — slider, changeup, four-seamer — to sequence through them effectively.

Curious what others think — does he get to 6 or 7 Ks against this lineup, or does Baltimore make enough contact to keep him in the 4-5 range?

Dylan Cease faces the Yankees with strikeout data that suggests the book line of 8.5 is set too low.

The ProprStats model projects 13.2 strikeouts against a book line of 8.5 — a gap of +4.7 at +12.1% EV.

Here's what the Pitcher Zone data shows:

Pitch WHIFF% vs NYY lineup:

• Slider (29.6% usage) — NYY WHIFF 34.1%
• Changeup (11.4% usage) — NYY WHIFF 37.2%
• Sweeper (4.2% usage) — NYY WHIFF 31.2%

Statcast vs MLB Average:

• WHIFF% 31.8% vs 25% league avg
• SwStr% 14.8% vs 11.0% league avg
• K Rate 36.1% — top of the league

Context factors:

• 7 left-handed hitters projected in the lineup — his stronger platoon split (36.4% K rate vs LHB)
• NYY K% vs RHP: 24.4%
• Most vulnerable: Spencer Jones 68% whiff rate, Austin Wells 46.7%, Ryan McMahon 44%

Pitch Count Projector: ~110 pitches / ~6.3 IP — durable, four deep starts this season.

Last 5 starts: 7, 10, 7, 12, 7 strikeouts — averaging 8.6 per outing. The book line of 8.5 is not accounting for what this arsenal looks like against a lineup this vulnerable to strikeouts.

Curious what others are seeing on this one.

Jared Jones Over 4.5 Strikeouts is the play, he faces Boston with a strikeout line that the underlying pitch data suggests is set low.

The model projects 7.1 strikeouts against a book line of 4.5 — a gap of +2.6 at +9.8% EV.

Here's what the Pitcher Zone data shows:

Pitch mix vs BOS lineup:

• Slider (35.9% usage) — BOS WHIFF% 30%
• Changeup (11.8% usage) — BOS WHIFF% 32.2%
• Four-Seam (45.3% usage) — BOS WHIFF% 19.2%

Statcast vs MLB Average:

• WHIFF% 27.2% vs 25% league avg
• SwStr% 13.1% vs 11.0% league avg
• Chase% 29.4% vs 28%

Context factors working in his favor:

• PNC Park K factor: +2% (K-friendly)
• BOS K% vs RHP: 21.7%
• 5 lefties projected in lineup — his stronger platoon split (28.7% K rate vs LHB)

The K weapon flagged vs this BOS lineup is the changeup — 32.2% whiff rate at 11.8% usage. Most vulnerable hitters: Eli White 41.7%, Willson Contreras 40.9%, Jarren Duran 37.2%.

Worth noting his last two starts were shortened — context to factor in. But the stuff metrics and lineup matchup point toward a higher strikeout total than the book is pricing.

Curious what others are seeing on this line.

Shane Bieber has a 5.48 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. He's been one of the more hittable starters this season.

But the specific pitch-by-pitch data against Ben Rice is what makes this matchup worth breaking down.

Bieber's most-used pitch against left-handed hitters is the four-seam fastball at 34% of pitches. His WHIFF% on it is only 13.3% — he is not generating swings and misses. Lefties are making consistent contact.

Here's what Ben Rice does vs four-seam fastballs from RHP:

• .330 BA / .533 wOBA / .883 SLG
• ISO .553
• 16 home runs
• 68.2% hard hit rate

That .883 SLG is not a typo. Nearly 7 in 10 fastballs Rice sees from right-handed pitching get hit hard. He has more home runs off that single pitch type than most hitters have total.

The rest of Bieber's arsenal doesn't offer much relief:

Changeup (20%): Rice — .532 SLG / 3 HR / .392 wOBA
Cutter (13%): Rice — .513 SLG / 2 HR / .418 wOBA

That's 24 combined home runs across the three pitch types Bieber leans on most. Rice's OPS vs RHP this season is .891.

The matchup score on this one comes in at 90 out of 100, verdict: Batter Edge. Top pitch edge flagged on the four-seam fastball at +0.233 wOBA advantage for the hitter.

First career meeting between the two — the pitch data tells the full story.