r/sportsbettingzone

Anyone else have a bet on this game?

Another one in the books ✅

35-13 (73%) over the last 48 posted picks. 🔥

Back to the NFL today:

🏈 Patriots/Bills Over 45.5

This total is definitely juiced, so we’re paying a premium to get the 45.5, but I’m still willing to bet it. I’d rather lay the extra juice on the number I want than force a worse line just to get prettier odds.

I’m expecting both offenses to contribute here, and this feels like a game where we have multiple paths to the over. Buffalo should be able to put points up at home, and if New England can hold up its end, we don’t need anything crazy — something in the 28-23 / 27-20 range gets us there.

At this point I’m sticking with what’s been working: finding the number I like and not overthinking it.

35-13 (73%) last 48. Let’s keep it rolling. 🔥🏈

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Angels/Red Sox Over 7.5

Got a pretty significant edge on this one based on my numbers.

Market implied: 59%
My probability: 69%
Edge: +10% 🎯

Obviously no model is perfect, but a 10% gap is enough for me to play it.

Been running extremely well lately too:

154-79 (66%) last 233
123-59 (68%) last 182
77-32 (71%) last 109
26-5 (84%) last 31
17-3 (85%) last 20

Going with Angels/Red Sox O7.5 today. ⚾