🔥 WE’RE BACK! Took Friday off, but we’re back at it Saturday!
🏈 CFB: Charlotte/North Texas OVER 54.5
✅ 38-14 (73%) Last 52 Picks
📊 Implied Probability: 63%
📈 Model Probability: 65%
💰 Edge: +2%
North Texas has the offensive firepower to exploit Charlotte’s struggling defense. Hoping Charlotte can contribute enough to help push this over.
Projected Score: North Texas 48-17 Charlotte
Let’s keep this run rolling! 🔥
Another one in the books ✅
35-13 (73%) over the last 48 posted picks. 🔥
Back to the NFL today:
🏈 Patriots/Bills Over 45.5
This total is definitely juiced, so we’re paying a premium to get the 45.5, but I’m still willing to bet it. I’d rather lay the extra juice on the number I want than force a worse line just to get prettier odds.
I’m expecting both offenses to contribute here, and this feels like a game where we have multiple paths to the over. Buffalo should be able to put points up at home, and if New England can hold up its end, we don’t need anything crazy — something in the 28-23 / 27-20 range gets us there.
At this point I’m sticking with what’s been working: finding the number I like and not overthinking it.
35-13 (73%) last 48. Let’s keep it rolling. 🔥🏈
Yesterday was a tough one. Red Sox/Angels Over 7.5 fell short by a single run, finishing 5-2.
🔥 That moves the recent run to 26-6 (81%) over the last 32 picks. Can’t win them all — onto the next one.
For today, I put together my moneyline and run line predictions for the entire 9/8 MLB slate. Posting the full board before the games so we can come back and see how everything actually performed.
No official pick from me today — I’ll have another one posted Wednesday.
Curious where everyone agrees or disagrees with the board. What’s your strongest ML or run line today?
Good luck today ⚾🤝
Angels/Red Sox Over 7.5
Got a pretty significant edge on this one based on my numbers.
Market implied: 59%
My probability: 69%
Edge: +10% 🎯
Obviously no model is perfect, but a 10% gap is enough for me to play it.
Been running extremely well lately too:
154-79 (66%) last 233
123-59 (68%) last 182
77-32 (71%) last 109
26-5 (84%) last 31
17-3 (85%) last 20
Going with Angels/Red Sox O7.5 today. ⚾
FREE MLB PICK ⚾️** | Astros/Mets Over **7
We’re riding a 21-4 (84%) run over the last 25 free picks, and we’re back with another one today.
Pick: Astros/Mets Over 7
Implied Probability: 62%
My True Probability: 64%
Edge: +2%
This isn’t one of those spots where I’m going to pretend there’s some massive edge. My numbers have this one very close to market price, but there’s still a small 2% advantage on the Over.
At 64% true probability versus 62% implied, I believe the Over is priced slightly below where it should be. It’s a smaller edge than I normally highlight, so I’d treat this as a standard play rather than anything aggressive.
Astros/Mets Over 7 ⚾️
🔥149-78 (66%) LAST 227
🔥118-58 (67%) LAST 176
🔥72-31 (70%) LAST 103
🔥21-4 (84%) LAST 25
As always, shop around for the best number and price. Good luck today.
Free MLB play for today:
Miami Marlins/Washington Nationals Over 7.5
Implied Probability: 57%
My True Probability: 69%
Calculated Edge: +12%
This is one of the bigger discrepancies on my board today. My model has this total hitting at approximately 69%, compared to the 57% implied probability I’m getting from the line.
One of the biggest factors is Washington starter Jackson Kent. He enters tonight at 0-2 with an 8.03 ERA and 2.11 WHIP through his first three MLB starts. He’s also walked 11 batters in just 12.1 innings, which creates additional opportunities for Miami to put runners on without needing to string together hits.
Miami counters with Eury Pérez, who has been much stronger with a 3.17 ERA. Washington still gives us some upside on its side of the total, though. The Nationals are coming off a 7-run performance against Colorado, and Daylen Lile has been hot, batting .429 over his last seven games with 3 HR and 9 RBI.
I don’t need both offenses to explode here. With the number at 7.5, something like 5-3 or 6-2 gets us home.
Pick: Marlins/Nationals Over 7.5
57% implied → 69% true probability = 12% edge
As always, these are my numbers and projections, not a guarantee. Good luck if you’re tailing. 🔥
8/24 FREE MLB PICK ⚾🔥
Cubs/Diamondbacks Over 8
We’re coming into today 9-1 (90%) over the last 10 free picks & 18-3 (86%) last 21, and I’m going right back to an MLB total.
📊 The Numbers:
Implied Probability: 61%
True Probability: 66%
Edge: +5%
The market is pricing this at roughly a 61% chance @ -155 odds on Pinnacle, while my numbers have it closer to 66%. That gives us a 5% edge— enough value for me to fire.
We don’t need either team to do all the work. Just need consistent offense from both sides and 9 runs gets it done.
Official Pick: Cubs/Diamondbacks Over 8 🔥
Let’s make it 10-1.
⚾️** FREE MLB PICK — 8/2**3
Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 7
📊 The Numbers
Implied Probability: 62%
My True Probability: 65%
Edge: +3%
Not the biggest edge we’ve played, but there’s still enough value for me to take the Over 7. At 65% true probability versus 62% implied, I have this total priced slightly better than the market.
And the free picks continue to deliver:
🔥 8-1 LAST 9
🔥 17-3 LAST 20 (85%)
🔥 68-30 LAST 98 (69%)
🔥 115-57 LAST 172 (67%)
🔥 145-77 LAST 222 (65%)
Jays/Yankees OVER 7. Let’s keep it rolling. 🍻⚾️
8/22 MLB Pick: Athletics/Astros Over 7
Free picks are on a 17-3 (85%) run, and I’m going back to a total today.
Pick: Athletics/Astros Over 7
Implied Probability: 61%
True Probability: 69%
Edge: +8%
My numbers make this total significantly more likely to go over than the market price suggests. At 61% implied versus 69% true probability, I’m getting an 8% edge, which is more than enough value for me to play it.
As always, the goal isn’t just picking winners—it’s finding spots where my projected probability beats the price the sportsbook is offering.
Athletics/Astros Over 7. Let’s keep the run going. 🔥
Going with Cardinals/Phillies Over 7.5 today.
Market implied probability: 56%
My true probability: 65%
Calculated edge: +9%
I’m not looking at whether I think the over is simply “likely” to hit. The question is whether my projected probability is high enough compared with what the price requires.
My numbers put this total at roughly a 65% chance of going over 7.5, compared with the market’s 56% implied probability. That gives me a 9 percentage-point edge, which is enough separation for me to play it.
Pick: Cardinals/Phillies Over 7.5 ⚾️
BOL ☘️
IMPORTANT: This is NOT a free pick — I don’t bet NFL preseason. I ran the numbers and put together the full cheat sheet for anyone who does, plus today’s MLB projections.
🔒 My main plays are HIDDEN. Any plays marked “NO PLAY” are intentionally hidden to protect my VIP members.
And yeah, yesterday’s MLB free pick lost. Who cares? I don’t. 😂 One loss doesn’t erase the run:
🔥 7-1 (88%) last 8
🔥 16-3 (84%) last 19
🔥 67-30 (69%) last 97
💰 114-57 (67%) long term
We keep moving.
8/19 FREE MLB PICK ⚾️🔥
Angels/Astros OVER 8
We’re riding a 7-game free pick winning streak into today:
🔥 7 straight wins
🔥 12-1 last 13 (92%)
🔥 16-2 last 18 (89%)
🔥 67-29 last 96 (70%)
🔥 114-56 last 170 (67%)
For today’s play, the market price gives Over 8 roughly a 57% implied probability.
My numbers have the true probability at 68%.
Implied: 57%
True: 68%
Edge: +11%
That separation is exactly what I’m looking for. I’m not taking an over just because I expect runs — the bet makes sense because my projected probability is significantly higher than what the market is pricing in.
At 68% true probability vs. 57% implied, there’s enough value for me to pull the trigger.
🎯 Angels/Astros OVER 8
Going for 8 straight free pick winners today. 🤝
As always, bet responsibly and don’t chase.
8/15 FREE MLB PICK:
CARDINALS/CUBS OVER 8
We are getting a true probability of 70% versus an implied probability of 59%. This plus 11% EV edge is the reason we make this wager. BOL if you are tailing! ☘️
4 straight wins 🔥
9-1 (90%) last 10 📈
NFL preseason cheat sheet also included.
Hennyspicks on IG for more!
8/14 Free MLB Pick of the Day
Astros Team Total Over 3.5 (-135)
Why? Our model is calculating a 64% true probability versus an implied 57% by the books. That’s a 7% +EV edge which is strong enough for us to place this wager. We are 12-2 (86%) in the last 14 & 63-29 (68%) last 92.
I don’t bet on NFL preseason but I still ran the numbers and included a cheat sheet for all 3 games today.
Hennyspicks on IG for more
BOL ☘️
ATLANTA BRAVES ML (-122)
10-2 (83%) LAST 12
61-29 (68%) LAST 90
HMU FOR MORE 📲
HENNYPICKS ON IG