
I ran 300+ paper trades on pump.fun graduates and then tested every "obvious" entry filter against the data. Almost everything was noise — here's what actually moved P&L.
I've been running a bot paper trading freshly graduated pump.fun tokens for a few weeks. Just over 300 closed trades now. I got sick of tweaking settings on gut feel so I sat down and actually tested every filter I believed in against the trade history. Most of what I believed turned out to be rubbish, so posting the numbers in case it saves someone else the time.
Stuff I was sure about that turned out to be noise:
Token names/themes. I bucketed 2,400+ tokens (animal coins, celebrity, politics, AI, crude jokes) and checked how many ever did a 2x. Base rate was 23%. Animal coins 24%. Celebrity 24%. None of the buckets separated from the base rate by anything you could trade. The only pattern in the actual monster winners was names tied to a live news moment, and you can't detect that from a wordlist.
Market regime. Built myself a daily heat index, basically what % of new tokens hit 2x that day. The index is real, it fell from 29% to 16% over two weeks. But correlation with my own daily P&L was -0.09. My best day landed on a hot day, my worst day landed on the hottest day of all. If your losses come from your exits, the tide doesn't save you.
Time of day. 13:00-14:00 UTC genuinely is the worst window in the wider data (13-17% hit rate vs 34% at the best hours). I was convinced this was my edge. Then I simulated actually gating my own trades by hour and it came out slightly worse than doing nothing, because it filtered winners at the same rate as losers.
Hard take profit. Simulated a flat +25% TP across all my trades. Made everything worse, net went from -0.26 SOL to -1.20. About 39% of trades did touch +25%, but the ones that ran past it are the entire book. One went +490%. Cap those and there's nothing left to pay for the losers.
What the data actually pointed at instead: my losers, not my winners. 54% of losing trades never went green at all, I was buying things already rolling over. Another third went +10% and then got chopped. Splitting the stop loss into two modes (tight until a trade proves itself, wide and trailing after) flipped the same trade history from -0.26 to +3.7 SOL in backtest. Live it's less pretty, thin books gap straight through stops, my -10% stops actually fill around -15%. Still testing it forward before I trust it, small sample so far.
The honest summary is every entry filter I tested had a lovely story behind it and none survived contact with the data. The only edges I've found so far are in exit mechanics and in not buying tokens that are already dying.
Anyone here actually found an entry-side signal on fresh launches that held up out of sample? Genuinely asking, mine all died.