How do you decide if a first TD scorer boost is actually +EV?
First TD scorer is one of the most fun NFL markets even if it is a complete sweat every time. You can look at red zone usage, opening drive tendencies, snap share, target share, matchup stuff, all of it. Then some random tight end or fullback ends up cashing it on the opening drive and everyone just stares at their slip. The only way I really like playing it is when there is a boost or a clear price difference across books. Like bet99 has a 40% boost on NFL first touchdown scorers right now and that is the type of promo that can actually make this market interesting from an EV angle. Obviously a boost does not make something good. If the base price is bad then the boost can just be dressing up a weak number. But if the boosted price beats the rest of the market, on guys with real red zone usage, then it at least becomes worth looking at. I still think the hardest part is deciding between the obvious red zone guy and the longer shot who might get scripted early. The star RB always feels safest until the team throws a play action pass to the backup TE from the 2 yard line. How do you guys usually price first TD boosts? Just compare to market after the boost, or are you building your own probabilities for this stuff?