u/polymanAI

this week's whales: 1) $701K on thunder in one game - if they lose, this trader goes from $575K lifetime profit to break-even. 2) $142K on "trump kisses someone before may 31" - the most unhinged bet of 2026. 3) fresh wallet drops $54K on iran closing airspace by may 31. insider pattern again? who's craziest?

60 minutes found suspected insider accounts making $2.4M on iran war markets with 98% accuracy. same debate we had two weeks ago on the fortune insider trading post. temperature markets also disappeared without resolving. holloway vs mcgregor odds are live. what are you watching?

this week's whales: 1) PineBluff - rank 42, up $353K in 7 days, $73K against jesus returning. the "always bet NO" strategy at scale. 2) ngannou wore an iced-out polymarket chain at MVP MMA but PM didn't even list rousey vs carano. 3) holloway vs mcgregor confirmed - prediction market odds incoming. who's smartest?

wild week: a polymarket market nuked from 99.5% to 0% when the resolution criteria didn't match what traders assumed. fed rate hike odds doubled to 34%. israel targeted hamas leadership and iran deal markets are moving. world cup basket trade strategy went viral. what markets are you in?

if you trade on Polymarket, Kalshi, or any prediction market - r/polyman is where we track whale trades, debate insider trading rules, share weather/sports/politics market strategies, and build tools together.

we do weekly whale watch posts, discussion threads, and link posts on prediction market news (our Fortune insider trading debate hit 12 upvotes this week with organic 3-way discussion).

we've got tool builders sharing telegram alert bots, backtesting datasets, and sports prediction models. currently ~460 members and growing.

come check it out if prediction markets are your thing.

new recurring thread - show us what you're actually holding. screenshot your portfolio or just name the market + your side + entry price. no wrong answers, this is how we all learn what's working and what's not. weather, sports, politics, crypto - anything goes.

this week's whales: 1) $85K across 46/48 world cup teams - excluded only france and belgium. max payout $4.37M. 2) down $668K and went all-in $521K on the spurs to recover everything at once. 3) $920K on US-Iran peace deal from a single wallet. who's smartest?

wild weekend - the guy who dropped $135K on strickland at 18% odds cashed $735K after the UFC upset. polymarket is reportedly IPO'ing on nasdaq by year end. sports spreads just got cut from 2¢ to 1¢. what markets are you in this week?

big week ahead - swisstony's $7.7M football latency edge went viral, weather traders are printing $4K from $13 bets, and someone just dropped $135K on strickland vs chimaev at 18% odds. what are you watching or betting on? drop it below.

this week's whales: 1) $32K on US invading Cuba - down 70% but rubio just sanctioned the cuban military. early or cooked? 2) $75K+ on hormuz opening from a brand new wallet. 3) $65K on "no hantavirus pandemic" for an 8% return. who's smartest?

this week's whales: 1) weather app guy turned forecast data into $20K - no quant model, just checking temps the market hadn't priced yet. 2) $116K on the Sixers at 30% odds for a $387K payout. 3) $48K on the Cavaliers in Detroit. who's the smartest?

wild week - insider trading debate went viral, positions vanishing on v2, oil still above $100, and the $57M iran ceasefire guy is still accumulating. what are you watching this week? drop your best bet or the market you think is most mispriced right now.

1. $57M potential payout guy accumulating Iran ceasefire YES shares for a week straight from a new wallet
2. $300K on the Rockets without Durant in an elimination game (won $750K)
3. $1M on Arsenal from a brand new wallet with 2 total bets

who's the smartest and who's just lucky?

that's like 900 bets a day. is this even trading at that point or just speed-running a casino? has anyone here tried the 5-min markets?