u/putting_all_on_red

Serious question.

When we day trade we are saying that there is some pattern in behaviour of markets we know that others don’t. The alternative is to buy index and hold, which would go up long term as economy becomes more productive, but if our edge is real we can make more money.

But how can we possibly have edge. Specifically on strategies in liquid assets. Because the geniuses / computers in quant firms would figure out any pattern far before us. So i would ask to people who trade us equities, particularly large caps, why? Small niche assets i can see, as institutions might not enter as they are not big enough.

But how do you go about being sure that you have an edge over all other far more informed participants?

Returns of btc between 24 june 2023 and now -> roughly 100% increase.

Returns of BITX etf (btc 2x leverage etf) in same period (this was the time of fund’s inception) -> 16.8% decrease?

I would expect a 4x increase. Why such disparity?

Firstly, ChatGPT was released over 3 years ago and the models are still far from perfect. They regularly make mistakes and hallucinations. Sometimes they make up stuff if they don’t know and sometimes they keep repeating the same thing. They have barely improved.

Secondly, an average human is still far more intelligent than LLMs. You can take any information occupation, and AI can’t even come close to the output of human professionals. For eg, someone vibe coding might write something resembling a code but it would be buggy, and need an experienced coder to fix. The number of coders thus required by companies would increase for the same amount of task because AI decreases productivity as more time goes into fixing errors than the grunt work time it saves.

Thirdly, barely anyone uses AI. Apart from some people who have offloaded mental energy entirely to LLMs, barely anyone uses these chatbots. Most people prefer to think for themselves. The usage numbers are completely flat for most LLMs!

Fourthly, AI labs can’t recover any money they are spending on these models. No one buys subscription and when the bubble pops they would need to scale down operations. There is no real demand so it wouldn’t make any money / business sense in long term.

So LLMs are just a useless product that no one needs or uses and wouldn’t make firms any money.

29M. Shooting a (hopefully) not very bad shot

I am not sure of the number of women on this sub around my age looking for a serious relationship/marriage but if it’s >0 this is strictly positive so best of luck me!

Cons of dating me:

1. I have a habit of rage-baiting people i love a lot. Although most of the times i would like to believe I am genuinely funny.

2. At least occasionally i am slightly depressed-ish thinking of macro questions of life. But this might be correlated with not having that many people close by to talk to. So maybe if i find someone here it decreases at some prob.

3. Some parts of the year I can have shitty wlb. There are def weeks where I am hitting 100+ hours/week if market vol is very high. Funny story. During first Covid crash all my pod guys were working super hard. So much so we couldn’t leave our desk for bathroom/lunch break. At least 1 guy peed his pants. Maybe 2 not sure about the other. I was so close too.

4. I live outside India. I am assuming most people here live in India and wouldn’t want to relocate. I am open to relocating back. I am due a couple year break anyways. But it has to be really serious before it obviously. Maybe 1+ year and then an analysis?

Some pros of dating me:

1. I am quite funny. I wasn’t the most attractive guy in high school so i (at least in my opinion) have developed a decent generalised version of humour.

2. I am also very hard working (again in my biased opinion). This extends to relationships. I am willing to work hard if there are problems and am willing to do whatever is within sensible boundaries if i am long on us.

3. I don’t lie almost always and am very loyal. Many women might call bs but i truly only have eyes one woman. Based on past data at least.

4. I have (some) financial security. My job has a very high churn so if i have a negative p&l for a couple years they would release me most likely but I have decent savings despite being a degen gambler (Another con i guess: i love donating to casinos). Salary stats: Base (10Cr inr ish) Bonus (75 Cr inr ish (expected. It varies a lot so theoretically could be 0 but they smoothen payout so unlikely to be <10 but i wouldn’t count chickens before they hatch.

Things I look for in a partner:

1. Easy person to be friends with. I always think that to marry someone I would need to be friends with them really well. So this is best case.

2. Someone who doesn’t take things too seriously and are funny/ take jokes well.

3. Someone into music? I play guitar so we can have mini band.

4. Probably some more open minded and who treats people not very well of good. Not snobby i would say

Note: some parts of this were randomly deleted when posted a couple mins. Could be an error from me or mod decisions. If it’s a choice of mods and anything is inappropriate please let me know and I would take down the post. Thanks.

Send me any thoughts. Even if it’s how to better present myself. Not the most extroverted guy so any data is good. Love to everyone.