u/ramboso64

Premise: This is a continuation of my previous two posts in this sub (first part, second part). I tried to calculate various probabilities, they should be correct but i advice to do your calculation if they don't seem right. All the probabilities refer for an all men crew.

About Artemis 3 crew selection, i see a lot of comments that the probability for an all men crew is about 14%. The comments consider that:

- NASA has 37 active astronauts, 22 men and 15 women.

- ESA has 11 active astronauts, 3 women and 8 men.

The probability for all men crew is:

22/37 x 21/36 x 20/35 x 8/11 (ESA) = 0.1441 -> 14.41%

If everyone was from NASA, the probability is:

22/37 x 21/36 x 20/35 x 19/34 = 0.1108 -> 11.08%

In reality, there are only 36 active astronauts from NASA because Stanley Love has left active flight status in 2010 but he is still listed as an active astronaut in the NASA website, thus NASA has 36 active astronauts, 21 men and 15 women.

In addition, only the group of Parmitano was eligible for the Artemis mission, they are 6 people, 1 woman and 5 men. (Peake retired in 2022)

The probability in this case is:

21/36 x 20/35 x 19/34 x 5/6 (ESA) = 0.1552 -> 15.52%

That is without taking in consideration who was occupied of the 36 from NASA and 6 of ESA. (is in space now, just landed, assigned to another mission)

- For NASA, there were eligible 20 people, 12 men and 8 women.

- For ESA, there were eligible 5 people, 4 men and 1 woman.

The probability in this case is:

12/20 x 11/19 x 10/18 x 4/5 (ESA) = 0.1543 -> 15.43%

However, two test pilots were assigned as commander and pilot for the mission, in this case,there is the problem of which role was for the ESA astronaut.

- If the ESA astronauts was the commander or pilot, only Parmitano would be eligible

- If the ESA astronauts was a mission specialist, there would be eligible 5 people, 4 men and 1 woman.

NASA has 15 test pilots but only 8 were eligible, 5 men and 3 women. It also has 21 non test pilots which 12 were eligible, 7 men and 5 women.

The propabilities in these case are:

- With ESA test pilot

5/8 (test pilot) x 7/12 (mission specialist) x 6/11 (mission specialist) x 1 (ESA test pilot) = 0.1989 -> 19.89%

- With ESA mission specialist

5/8 (test pilot) x 4/7 (test pilot) x 7/12 (mission specialist) x 4/5 (ESA non test pilot) = 0.1667 -> 16.67%

Now, i calculate the probabilities for all the roles of the Artemis 3 mission knowing that:

- Randy Bresnik: Commander,already 2 missions in space, test pilot.

- Luca Parmitano: Pilot,already 2 missions in space, test pilot.

- Andre Douglas: Mission Specialist, never flew.

- Frank Rubio: Mission Specialist, already 1 mission in space.

For the commander, only Bresnik and Douglas H. Wheelock are test pilot with more than 1 mission in space

The probability for a man as commander is 2/2 -> 100%

For the pilot:

- For ESA astronaut, only Parmitano is eligible

the probability for a man as pilot is 1/1 -> 100%

- For NASA astronaut, i considered the test pilots with at the least 1 mission in space, so the astronauts were Bresnik, Wheelock, Matthew Dominick, Jasmin Moghbeli, Raja Chari, Nicole Mann and Robert Hines.

Although, there were 7 people in total, in reality they were 6 , 2 women and 4 men, because the commander would be either Bresnik or Wheelock anyway.

the probability for a man as pilot is 4/6 = 0.6667 -> 66.67%

For the mission specialist with 1 mission in space behind, test pilots or not:

- For ESA astronaut, there were Samantha Cristoforetti, Alexander Gerst, Andreas Mogensen, Parmitano and Matthias Maurer.

They are 6 people in total, 1 woman and 5 men. (Beside Maure, everyone have done 2 missions in space)

the probability for a man as mission specialist is 5/6 = 0.8333 -> 83.33%

- For NASA, there were Rubio, Bob Hines, Matthew Dominick, Loral O'Hara, Jasmin Moghbeli, Warren Hoburg, Kayla Barron, Raja Chari and Nicole Mann.

They are 9 people in total, 5 men and 4 women.

the probability for a man as mission specialist is 5/9 = 0.5556 -> 55.56%

(Although, if one of those was chosen as pilot, the probability would be instead 5/8 or 4/8)

For the mission specialist who never flew before:

- For ESA astronaut, i considered the last selection of 2022, there were Pablo Álvarez Fernández, Rosemary Coogan, Raphaël Liégeois and Marco Sieber.

They are 4 people in total, 3 men and 1 woman

the probability for a man as mission specialist is 3/4 = 0.75 -> 75%

- For NASA astronaut, there were Andre Douglas, Christina Birch and Jessica Wittner

They are 3 people in total, 1 man and 2 women.

the probability for a man as mission specialist is 1/3 = 0.3333 -> 33.33%

With those values, the probabilities for a crew with all men based on the ESA astronaut role are:

2/2 (commander) x 1/1 (ESA test pilot) x 5/9 (mission specialist) x 1/3 (mission specialist who never flew before) = 0,1851 -> 18.51%

2/2 (commander) x 4/6 (test pilot) x 5/6 (ESA mission specialist) x 1/3 (mission specialist who never flew before) = 0,1850 -> 18.50%

2/2 (commander) x 4/6 (test pilot) x 5/9 (mission specialist) x 3/4 (ESA mission specialist who never flew before) = 0,2778 -> 27.78%

For an mission with all NASA astronaust:

2/2 (commander) x 4/6 (test pilot) x 5/9 (mission specialist) x 1/3 (mission specialist who never flew before) = 0,1233 -> 12.33%

At the end, the probability was 18.51% for a crew like the actual Artemis 3.

But there were other factors to take in consideration that are difficult to quantify as a probability. These are some examples:

- Even if all the astronauts received the same basic trainings, the academic and work background is different from everyone so the mission requirements or experiments are more suited for an astronaut than another.

- Some of the astronauts with 2 or more missions behind aren't involved directly with Artemis programm.

- Crew 14 hasn't the commander and pilot yet. If, it is like Crew 13, there will be either Christina Birch or Jessica Wittner as pilot and there will be either Matthew Dominick, Loral O'Hara, Jasmin Moghbeli, Warren Hoburg, Kayla Barron, Raja Chari or Nicole Mann as commander.

- Some astronauts with at the least 1 mission behind have administrative or support roles at NASA. There are also some involved with the development team for various aspects of the Artemis programm on the ground.

Premise: This is a continuation of my previous post in this sub. I write some infos which expand that post. Also, i considered eligible all the active NASA astronauts that aren't occupied with other mission. (See previous post)

From a lot of comments, NASA almost certainly chose test pilots
Let's see Artemis 3 crew:

• Randy Bresnik: Commander, Navy test pilot
• Luca Parmitano: Pilot, Air force test pilot
• Andre Douglas: Mission Specialist, Coast Guard
• Frank Rubio: Mission Specialist, Army (normal) pilot
• Robert Hines: BACKUP Mission Specialist, Air force test pilot

Only Randy, Luca and Robert are test pilots so this had to be a requirement for their roles.

Last month, Luca had an interview where he said that one of the requirements for ESA astronaut in Artemis is to have already done a mission, this means only his group is eligible for Artemis. (From the last ESA group of 2022, only Sophie Adenot has a mission and she is also a test pilot. Unfortunately, she is in space now)

Also from an article, ESA want an italian, a german and a french astronaut in an Artemis missions

The ESA group for Artemis could be:

• Luca Parmitano, italian
• Samantha Cristoforetti, italian
• Alexander Gerst, german
• Matthias Maurer, german
• Thomas Pesquet, french

This leads to the confermation of Thomas and the exclusion of Samantha for a future mission (for the moment). Also from that list, Luca is the only test pilot of his group.

Now for NASA, 15 of the 36 active astronauts are also test pilots (they are graduated from test pilots school) and they are 11 men and 4 women:

(these were eligible for artemis 3)

• Jessica Wittner
• Douglas H. Wheelock
• Jasmin Moghbeli
• Nicole Aunapu Mann
• Robert Hines
• Matthew Dominick
• Raja Chari
• Randy Bresnik

(these are occupied)

• Reid Wiseman
• Anne McClain
• Jack Hathaway
• Victor Glover
• Michael Fincke
• Luke Delaney
• Marcos Berríos

So, only 8 test pilots were "free", 3 women and 5 men.

Now, i re-examine all the 16 astronauts that were eligible and if they are doing something related to Artemis or relevant for Artemis 3.

**Andre Douglas** is presumably on board due to his role as backup for Artemis 2 since 2024, so he has confidence with the Orion spacecraft. Also Andre is a system engineer and he is doing research on complex systems with JU's APL.

The other people with 0 mission like Andre are:

• Christina Birch: she served as capcom for Artemis 2, she has doctorate in biological engineering
• Jessica Wittner: test pilot, she took part at ESA's PANGAEA in 2023 and 2025 with Thomas Pesquet (maybe, a clue for their roles in a surface mission)

**Frank Rubio** have foung nothing related to Artemis before his announcement, probably his unexpected longest stay in space have influnce his selection (longest time in space in a single mission for a US astronaut). He also is a flight surgeon.

**Robert Hines** was the astronaut technical lead for Orion as well as the astronaut representative on the Orion Cockpit Working Group. He served as a handling qualities and flight control specialist and he assisted in cabin design and human factors assessments for lunar landers. He also is a test pilot.

The other people with 1 mission like them are:

• Matthew Dominick: He was part of the original Artemis team and he is a test pilot. He has a bachelor in electrical engineering.
• Loral O'Hara: She was serving as the Assigned Crew Branch Chief where she manages all astronauts assigned to and flying spaceflight missions as well as assigned crew support activities.
• Jasmin Moghbeli: She was part of the original Artemis team and she is a test pilot. She was assigned technical duties on the development of the lunar lander.
• Warren Hoburg: He was part of the original Artemis team. He has a doctorate in electrical engineering and computer science. He served on the review team of the Orion heatshield
• Kayla Barron: She was supporting the development of new technologies and operational concepts for the Artemis Program, including the development of space suits and lunar rovers. She was part of the original Artemis team . She has a master degree in nuclear engineering
• Raja Chari: He is a test pilot and was part of the original Artemis team. Chari wasresponsible for leading astronaut development and testing the lunar lander for Artemis.
• Nicole Mann: She is a test pilot and she was part of the original Artemis team. She led the astronaut corps in the development of the Orion spacecraft, Space Launch System, and Exploration Ground Systems for missions to the Moon. She received a master degree in mechanical engineering.

Since August 2018, **Randolph Bresnik** was serving as the Assistant-to-the-Chief of the Astronaut Office for Exploration.  In this role he managed insight and expertise of the crew in their essential role in the development and testing of all vehicles and aspects of an Artemis mission – Orion crewed vehicle, Space Launch System (SLS), Exploration Ground Systems (EGS), Human Landing Systems (HLS), Lunar Gateway, Lunar unpressurized and pressurized rovers, as well as the new lunar surface exploration suits. He also is a test pilot.

The other people with 2 or more mission are:

• Donald Pettit: He has a Ph.D. in chemical engineering. I found nothing else related to Artemis
• Stephen Bowen: He has a master degree in ocean engineering. I found nothing else related to Artemis
• Michael Barratt: He has a master in Aerospace Medicine. He was involved in medical and human factors applications for new space vehicles in the Commercial Crew and Artemis Programs as well as space medical risks and research efforts.
• Tracy Caldwell Dyson: She has a Ph.D. in Chemistry. I found nothing else related to Artemis
• Stephanie Wilson: She was part of the original Artemis team. She worked at JPL (i advice to read her curriculum).
• Mark Vande Hei: I found nothing related to Artemis.
• Douglas H. Wheelock: He is a test pilot. He worked as an astronaut trainer for the Orion spacecraft. He tested Axiom space suit.

I wrote what i was able to find in that moment, i don't know if the informations are updated as a lot of text is from NASA website. Lasty, i advice to read the astronaut page on NASA website to see how much work they did.

Premise:i tried to collect enough facts to have a general overview of the NASA astronaut group and the possible reasons for Artemis 3 crew selection. I didn't consider any politics from Nasa itself, media, goverment, companies, etc.

There are 36 active Nasa astronauts at the moment, 21 men and 15 women.

16 have just finished a mission, in space now or have been chosen at the moment:

3 are in space now:

• Jack Hathaway
• Christopher Williams
• Jessica Meir

5 were in expedition 73 or 74:

• Anne McClain (landed in August 2025)
• Nichole Ayers (landed in August 2025)
• Jonny Kim (landed in December 2025)
• Michael Finckle (landed in January 2026)
• Zena Cardam (landed in January 2026)

3 were in Artemis 2:

• Victor Glover
• Reid Wiseman
• Christina Koch

5 are chosen for future flight beside Artemis (Artemis 3 is scheduled for half/late 2027):

• Luke Delaney (Crew 13, September 2026)
• Jessica Watkins (Crew 13, September 2026)
• Anil Menon (Soyuz MS-29, July 2026)
• Deniz Burnham (Soyuz MS-30, March 2027)
• Marcos Berrios (backup for Soyuz MS-30, March 2027)

The are also 2 other unknown astronauts at the moment for Crew 14 (March 2027) but i don't take them in consideration now.

So, 20 Nasa astronauts of 36 were eligible for Artemis 3: 12 Men and 8 Women

Taking in consideration Artemis 2 now

• Reid Wiseman: Commander , two missions in space with Artemis 2, 174 Days in space
• Victor Glover: Pilot, two missions in space with Artemis 2, 176 Days in space
• Christina Koch: Mission specialist, two missions in space with Artemis 2, 338 Days in space
• Jeremy Hansen: Mission specialist, first mission with Artemis 2, 9 Days in space and from Canadian space agency.

Taking in consideration Artemis 3 (if nothing happens in meantime)

• Randy Bresnik: Commander, three missions in space with Artemis 3, 149 Days in space

• Luca Parmitano: Pilot, three missions in space with Artemis 3, 366 Days in space and from ESA.

• Andre Douglas: Mission Specialist, first mission with Artemis 3, backup for Artemis 2

• Frank Rubio: Mission Specialist, two mission in space with Artemis 3, 370 Days in space

• Bob Hines: BACKUP Mission Specialist, one mission in space without Artemis 3, 170 Days in space

In both missions, there are an international astronaut and a somenone's first mission, Artemis 2 had Jeremy Hansen (international and first mission), Artemis 3 have Luca Parmitano (international) and Andre Douglas (first mission) for Artemis 3. However, the veterans of Artemis 3 crew have already two mission or more days in space than Artemis 2 crew except for Bob Hines, this could be due to the complexity of the mission.

Luca has probably the seat due to the pressure from italian space agency or goverment. If a seat was already reserved for ESA, only other 5 astronauts were eligible with the same experience of Luca, 5 men and 1 woman:

• Matthias Maurer
• Thomas Pesquet
• Andreas Mogensen
• Alexander Gerst
• Samantha Cristoforetti, she is italian so she won't likely be chosen for Artemis 4.

For NASA, there are only 3 seats available.

Andre Douglas is presumably on board due to his role as backup for the previous mission since 2024, so he has confidence with the Orion spacecraft. Other candidates with 0 mission are:

• Christina Birch
• Jessica Wittner

Frank Rubio and Bob Hines has both one mission behind, but Frank has more days in space than others astronauts with 1 mission. Other possible candidates with similar background are:

• Matthew Dominick, 235 Days in space
• Loral O'Hara, 203 Days in space
• Jasmin Moghbeli, 199 Days in space
• Warren Hoburg, 185 Days in space
• Kayla Barron, 176 Days in space
• Raja Chari, 176 Days in space
• Nicole Mann, 157 Days in space

I think that specific skills and experience were considered for Bob and Frank as the others have relative similar total times in space.

Lastly the commander Randolph Bresnik, the other candidates are:

• Donald Pettit, 4 missions, 590 Days in space
• Stephen Bowen, 4 missions, 226 Days in space
• Michael Barratt, 3 missions, 446 Days in space
• Tracy Caldwell Dyson, 3 missions, 372 Days in space
• Stephanie Wilson, 3 missions, 42 Days in space
• Mark Vande Hei, 2 missions, 523 Days in space
• Douglas H. Wheelock, 2 missions, 178 Days in space

Only Douglas is similar to Randolph and he is responsable with crew training for Artemis and testing lunar landers, maybe this is why Randolph have been chosen.