r/ArtemisProgram

“Op-Ed: How NASA Could Still Land Astronauts on the Moon by 2029” - AmericaSpace.com

This is an article that I found regarding a concept for future Artemis missions. It involves combining Starship, the Blue Moon lander, and the Centaur upper stage. The main objective is to avoid the need for orbital refueling, which is often cited as one of the biggest challenges and delay risks of future Artemis missions starting with Artemis IV. I was curious as to what everyone thinks of this proposal.

Just a heads up, this article was written before Artemis III was changed, so just pretend that it’s for Artemis IV.

I have been reading about the missions in the coming years, and saw that two of the crew of Artemis IV will spend a week on the lunar surface, and I was wondering what will the other two crew that'll stay on the orbiter be doing? From some of the research says they'll be working on the lunar orbiter station while another says that was cancelled for the lunar base. Can someone set me straight?

I saw the recent news, and I just want to know how much we actually know about it other than it being a cousin to Perseverance and Curiosity.

Premise: This is a continuation of my previous two posts in this sub (first part, second part). I tried to calculate various probabilities, they should be correct but i advice to do your calculation if they don't seem right. All the probabilities refer for an all men crew.

About Artemis 3 crew selection, i see a lot of comments that the probability for an all men crew is about 14%. The comments consider that:

- NASA has 37 active astronauts, 22 men and 15 women.

- ESA has 11 active astronauts, 3 women and 8 men.

The probability for all men crew is:

22/37 x 21/36 x 20/35 x 8/11 (ESA) = 0.1441 -> 14.41%

If everyone was from NASA, the probability is:

22/37 x 21/36 x 20/35 x 19/34 = 0.1108 -> 11.08%

In reality, there are only 36 active astronauts from NASA because Stanley Love has left active flight status in 2010 but he is still listed as an active astronaut in the NASA website, thus NASA has 36 active astronauts, 21 men and 15 women.

In addition, only the group of Parmitano was eligible for the Artemis mission, they are 6 people, 1 woman and 5 men. (Peake retired in 2022)

The probability in this case is:

21/36 x 20/35 x 19/34 x 5/6 (ESA) = 0.1552 -> 15.52%

That is without taking in consideration who was occupied of the 36 from NASA and 6 of ESA. (is in space now, just landed, assigned to another mission)

- For NASA, there were eligible 20 people, 12 men and 8 women.

- For ESA, there were eligible 5 people, 4 men and 1 woman.

The probability in this case is:

12/20 x 11/19 x 10/18 x 4/5 (ESA) = 0.1543 -> 15.43%

However, two test pilots were assigned as commander and pilot for the mission, in this case,there is the problem of which role was for the ESA astronaut.

- If the ESA astronauts was the commander or pilot, only Parmitano would be eligible

- If the ESA astronauts was a mission specialist, there would be eligible 5 people, 4 men and 1 woman.

NASA has 15 test pilots but only 8 were eligible, 5 men and 3 women. It also has 21 non test pilots which 12 were eligible, 7 men and 5 women.

The propabilities in these case are:

- With ESA test pilot

5/8 (test pilot) x 7/12 (mission specialist) x 6/11 (mission specialist) x 1 (ESA test pilot) = 0.1989 -> 19.89%

- With ESA mission specialist

5/8 (test pilot) x 4/7 (test pilot) x 7/12 (mission specialist) x 4/5 (ESA non test pilot) = 0.1667 -> 16.67%

Now, i calculate the probabilities for all the roles of the Artemis 3 mission knowing that:

- Randy Bresnik: Commander,already 2 missions in space, test pilot.

- Luca Parmitano: Pilot,already 2 missions in space, test pilot.

- Andre Douglas: Mission Specialist, never flew.

- Frank Rubio: Mission Specialist, already 1 mission in space.

For the commander, only Bresnik and Douglas H. Wheelock are test pilot with more than 1 mission in space

The probability for a man as commander is 2/2 -> 100%

For the pilot:

- For ESA astronaut, only Parmitano is eligible

the probability for a man as pilot is 1/1 -> 100%

- For NASA astronaut, i considered the test pilots with at the least 1 mission in space, so the astronauts were Bresnik, Wheelock, Matthew Dominick, Jasmin Moghbeli, Raja Chari, Nicole Mann and Robert Hines.

Although, there were 7 people in total, in reality they were 6 , 2 women and 4 men, because the commander would be either Bresnik or Wheelock anyway.

the probability for a man as pilot is 4/6 = 0.6667 -> 66.67%

For the mission specialist with 1 mission in space behind, test pilots or not:

- For ESA astronaut, there were Samantha Cristoforetti, Alexander Gerst, Andreas Mogensen, Parmitano and Matthias Maurer.

They are 6 people in total, 1 woman and 5 men. (Beside Maure, everyone have done 2 missions in space)

the probability for a man as mission specialist is 5/6 = 0.8333 -> 83.33%

- For NASA, there were Rubio, Bob Hines, Matthew Dominick, Loral O'Hara, Jasmin Moghbeli, Warren Hoburg, Kayla Barron, Raja Chari and Nicole Mann.

They are 9 people in total, 5 men and 4 women.

the probability for a man as mission specialist is 5/9 = 0.5556 -> 55.56%

(Although, if one of those was chosen as pilot, the probability would be instead 5/8 or 4/8)

For the mission specialist who never flew before:

- For ESA astronaut, i considered the last selection of 2022, there were Pablo Álvarez Fernández, Rosemary Coogan, Raphaël Liégeois and Marco Sieber.

They are 4 people in total, 3 men and 1 woman

the probability for a man as mission specialist is 3/4 = 0.75 -> 75%

- For NASA astronaut, there were Andre Douglas, Christina Birch and Jessica Wittner

They are 3 people in total, 1 man and 2 women.

the probability for a man as mission specialist is 1/3 = 0.3333 -> 33.33%

With those values, the probabilities for a crew with all men based on the ESA astronaut role are:

2/2 (commander) x 1/1 (ESA test pilot) x 5/9 (mission specialist) x 1/3 (mission specialist who never flew before) = 0,1851 -> 18.51%

2/2 (commander) x 4/6 (test pilot) x 5/6 (ESA mission specialist) x 1/3 (mission specialist who never flew before) = 0,1850 -> 18.50%

2/2 (commander) x 4/6 (test pilot) x 5/9 (mission specialist) x 3/4 (ESA mission specialist who never flew before) = 0,2778 -> 27.78%

For an mission with all NASA astronaust:

2/2 (commander) x 4/6 (test pilot) x 5/9 (mission specialist) x 1/3 (mission specialist who never flew before) = 0,1233 -> 12.33%

At the end, the probability was 18.51% for a crew like the actual Artemis 3.

But there were other factors to take in consideration that are difficult to quantify as a probability. These are some examples:

- Even if all the astronauts received the same basic trainings, the academic and work background is different from everyone so the mission requirements or experiments are more suited for an astronaut than another.

- Some of the astronauts with 2 or more missions behind aren't involved directly with Artemis programm.

- Crew 14 hasn't the commander and pilot yet. If, it is like Crew 13, there will be either Christina Birch or Jessica Wittner as pilot and there will be either Matthew Dominick, Loral O'Hara, Jasmin Moghbeli, Warren Hoburg, Kayla Barron, Raja Chari or Nicole Mann as commander.

- Some astronauts with at the least 1 mission behind have administrative or support roles at NASA. There are also some involved with the development team for various aspects of the Artemis programm on the ground.

The Lunar Enabling Infrastructure Accelerator includes five topics that address gaps in technology needed for exploring the Moon and the cislunar region between Earth and the Moon as identified in NASA’s Civil Space Shortfalls. The topics focus on near-term mission priorities:

• Surface power: Access to continuous, localized, and scalable power generation throughout the lunar day and night is essential for initial phases of the Moon Base plan. NASA’s needs include power generation, power management and distribution, and energy storage.

• Radioisotope power: A type of nuclear energy technology that uses heat to produce electric power for operating spacecraft systems in the darkest, dustiest, and most remote places in our solar system.

• In-situ resource utilization: As a sustained presence grows at the Moon, opportunities to harvest lunar resources could lead to safer, more efficient operations with less dependence on Earth. Advancing in-situ resource utilization technologies could support production of fuel, water, and oxygen from local materials, expanding exploration capabilities.

• In-space advanced manufacturing: Long-term human presence beyond Earth orbit requires autonomous in-space production of essential tools and materials. Advancing in-space manufacturing will be critical to reducing reliance on Earth resupply, as well as optimizing mission flexibility and resilience at the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere in deep space.

• Innovative nanomaterials: U.S. objectives related to the commercialization of low Earth orbit, building a sustained presence on the lunar surface, and pursuing deeper space exploration will involve work in demanding operational environments and under stringent mission constraints. To meet the agency’s most ambitious space exploration goals, this topic seeks to advance the commercial availability, performance, quality, and uniformity of nanomaterials to address environmental, mass, and performance challenges.

Lunar Enabling Infrastructure Accelerator awardees will be expected to design, develop, and demonstrate prototype systems and generate validated performance data, analytical models, and operational insights through testing and demonstration activities to mature technology and manufacturing applications.