u/rebrando23

We don’t need to dogpile on these guys and demand a top down overthrow of the whole system. We played bad game and a good team took advantage of it. That’s going to happen, even to good teams. We’ve got a lot to build off of going forward.

Tillman & Balogun are stars who will perform on the biggest stage.

Robinson’s still a top left back.

Adams & McKennie have highly technical teams afraid to try to play through them.

Richards is a beast. Freeman had a breakout tournament. Ream was a great servant to this time for a long time, but that was probably his last game before international retirement.

Reyna might be reigniting his career, he looked good and hungry when he played.

We’ve got huge prospects coming up in Cavan Sullivan, Mathis Albert, Noahkai Banks (maybe), Montrell Culbreath (maybe), Zavier Gozo, Julian Hall, Adri Mehmeti, & Diego Kochen to just list the tip of the iceberg.

A strong program is being built and this is just a bump in the road.

The Action: 

Important context: They are on a ladder from $37,196 to $46,385 - $9,189 between 25th and 24th.

Lucky Chewy minraises off of 30BB from the HJ

Jon Kyte effectively shoves from the small bind, with AsTc for 20BB, leaving just 40K behind.  

Chewy calls and the flop comes QJ6 all hearts and it checks through.  Turn 6d checks through.  River 3d and Chewy puts Kyte in for the last 40K.

Kyte tank folds the AT.  Lichtenberger shows ATdd, revealing he got Kyte off the chop.

The Review:

This fold has sparked a lot of bewilderment online in the poker community, with most people roasting Kyte’s decision to fold for just 40K more.  But in doing the math, I’m actually inclined to think it was a really great fold.

I do not have access to 20BB HJ vs SB charts adjusted for ICM and a big blind ante, but based on my knowledge and intuition from years of watching and playing tournaments, I think Chewy would be calling off the jam with something like: 88+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs… maybe QJs. 

Against that range, AT is doing abysmal, even at the price it’s getting. 
Hands he loses to (63)
12 combos: AK
8 combos: AQ,AJ
6 combos: 88, 99, KK
3 combos: AA, QQ, JJ, KQs, QJs
1 combo: AThh (flush), TT

Hands he chops with (1)
ATdd

So he’s has has odds of 1/64 to win half the pot, making his odds effectively 1/128, or .8%

With a price of 40K to win half of the pot (1.3M), he needs 3.1% equity to call, as well as an additional equity tacked in for the risk premium of losing your tournament life on a pay ladder.  

I think this was a great fold and it’s actually crazy Chewy had the one exact combo that he would've chopped with.

Just noticed looking at the schedule that Brutalismus3000 and Viagra Boys no longer conflict! How freaking impossible is it going to be to get into that Avalanches > Loukeman > Brutalismus run tho...

Overall the schedule worked out pretty nice for me, but this one is stumping me.

Not because of some “play the youth” philosophy, but because on current form he’s a top 4 winger in the pool.