u/returnofhorror

This information is not for someone who has no understanding of charts, if that’s you please kindly exit this post.

The two micro levels it must break to show strength are the first two boxes, the problem is the second one runs into the major sell wall where it’ll most likely stall, I made a bunch of red lines instead of a box to be more accurate) and it’s currently imbalanced (meaning the stock will want to test those red levels one day soon…. if it does breakout. the yellow line puts you guys in the clear (not saying it can’t come back down, but the sell orders have been absorbed) and then It should go to around $47 pretty easily once it does break $45 (not saying in the same week, institutions will decide the timeline) before any major selling orders. Anyways, Just below $44 to 44.72 is the major institutional sell orders inbetween that area everywhere (red lines), to be safe I’d say $45 needs cleared to absorb that.. 41.96-42.22 is A super minor sell zone and failure there like it did today is not a good sign for the next week or so, the second box 42.88 - 43.50 is highest micro supply before major sell orders, but without breaking those two at minimum, it’ll more likely go in the short term. Take note that the stock failed at the first micro sell zone today multiple times and volume is way down recently, I only mention this because the trendline break will attract retail, bag holders, etc and even some bigger money, it does have that going for it and incase we get a good tech day tomorrow in general it’s not “dead” (for tomorrow and possibly into next week, not long term, long term is still bullish) More than likely it’s going down for now though so if it fails at the first box (or especially the second) I’d personally sell covered calls at $48 strike, the odds of it hitting $48 in the next week or two are slim to none. it’s more than likely going to hit that green box I have marked (40.80-40.48) as a buy zone, have a small bounce and then next week go (slowly) to 36.8x-$37.xx before it makes its next leg up above $45 (could take a month, could take a few days, I can’t predict when institutions will move the price up besides these obvious levels on the chart)

If you don’t understand charts or have basic knowledge of any of this and don’t know how to confirm these failures with volume, this isn’t for you. If you’re happy bag holding for the long run and not making any covered call money great, im glad your financially Blessed to not need money, but please don’t reply here. I realize some of you are happy in the echo chamber, only posting and reading good things by other people who share your interest in it going up and never going down, that’s cool, if you’re happy, I’m happy for you. and hopefully one day it’ll be $1000 a share for you genuinely, I hope that happens , until then reality says it’ll go up, and then down, and then up higher and down higher than the last time it went lower. I’m not here to antagonize I wish you all the best. I’d like to try to help some more people (my goal is 10 people and I’m doing this as a karma repay for life being good to me financially lately) who want to learn and make money on the upcoming micro moves and again if you’re happy just holding this stock until it hits $100 or whatever, cool, I don’t understand why you’re on a Reddit page everyday if you’re cool holding or even care what the price does on a daily basis or why you’d even check it, let alone take time out of your day to come here but I don’t care, I’m not going to tell you how ridiculous that is, do you, i have opinions and you wouldn’t like them so I keep them to myself please do the same. I don’t take time out of my day to carry on on your posts because I disagree with you. Just please don’t bother me if this makes you emotional. I have PMs I have to answer and help people with and that’s why im here. I’d rather not deal with you if you’re not interested in what I’m saying. Thank you and good luck.

Not financial advice just thinking out loud.

Oh wow, it came down hit the bottom of my box where I said buyers were lined up, came up and broke the second box (selllers) like I said it would after it came back to the first box again and absorbed all of those and then went up and hit my second supply box (more sellers) and rejected. It’s almost like I said if it tapped of fthe top of that box and rejected I personally would have sold covered calls or sold. Guess I’m just lucky again to almost the penny. I should play the lottery since according to most of you, idk what I’m talking about, yet I’m always right…

See that major wick today off that zone just before the big green candle on the left? Buyers stepped in to defend that point heavily . Could be bullish, if it can’t get to/break 36.08, that changes things. however , if it breaks that area and holds, 37.64 is the next level to watch for. If it breaks below 33.84 watch for 33.42. If it breaks much lower than that, I’d keep 32.60-31.78 in mind for the next reversal point.

Wow my magic crystal ball was right again. How can you explain this one away? You were wrong. I was right to almost the penny. Sadly for me, I spent most of my money right before close on calls for another stock, and shares of a 3rd stock so I only could afford 200 shares which means I bought 80 because that’s how you risk reward if you wanna learn about that next lol. Easy $100. Wanna admit you’re dumb yet? Or ?

SMCI failed at the bottom of a supply zone today and created a huge wick meaning there’s sellers stacked where I had the magical box of where I thought sellers would be. If it reclaims 33.08 and keeps going up on increasing volume past 33.70-33.80ish, maintain a bullish target to atleast 35.25. If it breaks 36.18 look for 36.84. The more rational thought is look for a fail at 32.08ish, on slowing volume and for it reverse and create a new supply zone down to around $30 . The whole tech sector hit supply today and failed hard. I’d either be looking for a red day tomorrow or an opening green and then fail and reverse. These are the levels I’m keeping in mind both bullish and bearish, but since the rest of the sector failed, I’m leaning bearish. not financial advice. I’m not saying it’s not going up or down in the near future, I’m just saying what the chart says, bouncing off of that supply zone is good, it means institutions are testing these higher levels, if you’re a bag holder, I’d expect to see $37-38 in the next month and I’ll try to give updates when I can, but I usually only post on days where I take trades on it, or am planning too but it doesn’t meet the specifics I want. This is good news for everyone so before you all start crying, anytime you bounce off a supply zone, that’s usually a good sign long term.

If this stock doesn’t break 26.47 but tests and fails there, it’s extremely bearish. If it breaks that level and then tests and fails at 27.03, it’s bearish. 27.55 must break and get above $28.15, it’s still going to be considered in a bearish trend until that happens, it will more than likely just keep going down to atleast $24.60-$23ish before it settles and finds some buyers that move the market. It the move is really fast up, don’t trust it, it’s a trap. Institutions don’t push the price to a half ass price like $30-$34 and then just let it slowly drift down again, they’re hoping you FOMO and buy more high and then get wore out as they push it lower and lower for weeks or months and sell it low. You want to see it move up strategically, a little everyday, that’s how institutions build positions on shares they plan to hold, so you don’t notice, if you notice, 98% of the time it’s coming back down unless it keeps going and going on high volume and even then eventually sellers will overwhelm buyers and take control again. Don’t get trapped at high prices, if you truly do believe in the company if it hits $23 or so that’s perfect to load up anyways, so win-win. Anything below $23 is what I consider no lands land. There’s no where left on the chart to ground it, or to be able to see the buy orders sitting. Hopefully the market starts to recover tomorrow because the institutions took out the sellers stop losses and the buyers stop losses today, that could be a sign for a change in direction or for things to get a whole lot worse. I guess we’ll see tomorrow. Not financial advice, just my quick observation, didn’t have time to examine it deeper sorry and all prices listed will and should have a margin of error because it’s the market and not a math equation. Good luck everyone

After the huge move from $24-31 and until today, all was looking well, however, today had a huge downward move with increasing volume (profit taking from institutions) which made a lower low. If you notice those red candles have no wicks meaning that was substantial selling, if it goes up to my box to fill that imbalance on the chart, (or especially if it fails at the green line) and fails there with a wick at the last green candles wick before the down move, and then retest that area and starts moving down, it’s likely to go into atleast the $29.75 - 29.90 range. Basically if tomorrow goes to 32.22 and fails and it can’t go above that, I’d become bearish on this for now (I’m not saying it’s going to 0, I’m just stating what the chart says, I’m currrntly bullish overall with SMCI) if 29.69 breaks on high volume I’d start looking below 29, possibly to below $26 before you see institutions step in again. This is what they do, give you good news run the price up so you buy, and then they sell for a profit and trap you, be careful. Oh, and if it goes above 32.60, I’m more than likely wrong, but the chart isn’t leaning that way. (Intel news can possibly extend the move though before the inevitable pullback to atleast below $30

Remember how this screenshot made you guys so mad? Reality is reality, it didn’t even have enough buying power to hit the top zone, it hit the one right below (19 cents less) than I had marked, which is extremely bearish. So let’s try this again. if it can break upwards on high volume and hold above 27.68ish tomorrow that could change the narrative (doubtful), as of right now if it rejects 27.40 (give or take) and wicks off of that area, and starts going lower that demand level at just above $26 was tapped today already and very low volume came out of it, meaning it’s probably gone as resistance. If all these things happen, perfectly, I’m going to trade SMCI up or down tomorrow for the first time in a long time depending on what happens. A break of $26 and I’m going to start eyeing $25.41ish and then $25 and then if that breaks between $23-$24. Not financial advice, just showing my personal plan. hopefully for your guys sake it doesn’t break below $26, a break below $26 is either going to be a big fakeout, or a few dollar move down imo (may take a few days to get there) Contrary to how you guys treated me on my first post, and what you might think, I’m posting this information to try and spread awareness of what the chart says to me. Take this information and form your own plan. Institutions can decide tomorrow SMCI is worth $50 a share and the price can go up to $50, I’m just saying, it’s more likely to follow the chart and downtrend for NOW. Don’t get emotional because I’m telling you what the chart says, this is what the chart tells me to think, I can care less about SMCI as a company.

Also, if we do clear 27.68ish be careful of $28.56, it’s going to want to hit that level and reject, if volume is falling on 1 min candles as it approaches there, I’d be more than concerned.

My trading plan, not financial advice. The supply zone is obvious, The yellow box is the only place I’d expect some resistance to this after it hits my top purple box, and I showed on the 4 hour why I think this is going below $24-22.75 (imbalance/slight demand) unless some news changes that, which I am not counting on. I’m just posting this here so I can see if my plan plays out, again, I’m learning so I’m just documenting, not financial advice at all.

Since this took out the equal lows overnight, I’m considering this a high probability demand zone. However, when they wick down before the impulse, I always get confused on where to mark the zone. Sometimes it hits off the wick, sometimes it goes below it. Can anyone shed some insight because it’s a big difference on a $70 some dollar stock and I need to figure it out because this happens a lot.