r/SMCIDiscussion

SMCI reported among the top 3 pain points for Shorts

SMCI reported among the top 3 pain points for Shorts

Palantir was the the worst pain point for Shorts, but SMCI came in as number 3 with Shorts losing an estimated $1.3 Billion on paper. SMCI squeeze score is listed at 100, the max level.

Short Sellers Are Losing Big on Palantir — Here's the Data

BENZINGA 12:30 PM ET 8/19/2026

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) has become the single biggest pain point for short sellers in a market rally that is squeezing bears across the board, according to new data from S3 Partners. 

The firm tracks a basket of stocks that score 70 or higher on its 0-100 squeeze scale, meaning conditions are ripe for shorts to get forced out of their positions. Twenty-four names currently qualify for that basket, and the cohort has climbed 13.4% month-to-date, pressuring short sellers across the board.

Palantir’s Outlier Position

Short interest in Palantir(PLTR) now totals $12 billion. That’s the largest dollar short in the basket and well above its $3.37 billion average. The stock is also the group’s biggest gainer, up 41.4% month-to-date. It carries the largest mark-to-market loss for shorts at $5 billion. 

Read Also: Moderna's Cancer Vaccine Win Is Merck's Story Too

Benzinga’s short-interest tracker shows bets against Palantir(PLTR) have generally kept growing even as the stock climbs, adding to those unrealized losses. Yet the position covers just 3% of float, leaving the stock with the lowest crowded score in the basket at 32.5. 

Few short sellers are involved, but those involved picked the wrong side.

Mark-To-Market Losses Mount

Recent mark-to-market losses across the basket total roughly $15 billion, and close to two-thirds of that sits in just three names. Palantir(PLTR) accounts for $5 billion, followed by Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE) at $3.1 billion and Super Micro Computer Inc.(SMCI) at $1.3 billion. 

All three are also the basket’s biggest movers, each up more than 34%.

The Squeeze Score

S3 Partners builds its squeeze score on top of a separate crowded score, which grades how tightly packed a short position is using short-dollar size, stock loan liquidity, trading volume and short interest. The squeeze score then layers on rising stock-borrow costs and mark-to-market losses, since those factors typically force short sellers to cover.

Palantir’s pain fits a broader pattern across the basket, where the average squeeze score now sits at 80.8. 

Fox Corp. (FOXA) , Workday Inc.(WDAY) and Super Micro all hit the maximum reading of 100. 

Leon Gross , S3 Partners’ director of research, summed up the dynamic: a rising market acts like the tide, lifting all boats — and every squeeze score with them.

The Most Crowded Shorts

Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) and Fox carry the heaviest crowding scores, at 85 and 80, followed by **EchoStar Corp.(ECHO)**and **Skyworks Solutions Inc.(SWKS)**at 77.5 each, against a 62.0 average. 

Benzinga’s tracking shows Charter Communications’ short interest at 50.40% of its float, the heaviest in the basket.

u/Busy-Delivery4250 — 17 hours ago

Stock sinking? Are you surprised? Nope 🙂‍↔️

Hey guys, I warned you all about this post. The sell off is real. SMCI seems like a stock to buy low sell high and get out. HODL doesn’t work here. I shorted it and made some profit. I think this stock will go down some more. When you miss earning, the stocks generally go down not the other way around. The ones who sold at 40’s are the real winners here. The ones who held are just diamond hands meme 🤔

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u/Nearby-Ad9422 — 23 hours ago

DELL vs SMCI — The Cash Flow Difference Is Huge, but the growth story is much different!

FY2026 GAAP net income

DELL: $5.94B
SMCI: $2.23B

Dell generated about 2.7× more net income than SMCI.

But their net margins were actually quite similar:

DELL: ~5.23%
SMCI: ~5.71%

The really interesting part comes when you look at cash flow.

FY2026 operating cash flow

DELL: +$11.19B
SMCI: -$6.81B

So Dell went from:

$5.94B net income → $11.19B operating cash flow

while SMCI went from:

$2.23B net income → -$6.81B operating cash flow

That's an enormous divergence.

SMCI's issue wasn't that it was losing money. The company was profitable, but enormous amounts of cash were tied up in working capital, particularly inventory and accounts receivable.

In FY2026, SMCI's cash flow was negatively affected by approximately:

  • $3.92B increase in accounts receivable
  • $8.88B increase in inventory

These were partially offset by increases in accounts payable and deferred revenue.

The encouraging part for SMCI

Q4 FY2026 showed a major improvement:

  • Revenue: $11.1B
  • Net income: $1.18B
  • Operating cash flow: +$747M
  • Capex/investments: $25M

That compares with Q3, when SMCI reported approximately $483M of net income but ~$6.6B of negative operating cash flow.

If inventory and receivables normalize, SMCI's cash generation could improve dramatically.

But if working capital continues consuming cash, then the impressive EPS growth is much less valuable than it appears. - My opinion on this is that working capital will keep consuming the cash flow as long as the company is growing. Because profits will eventually end up being used to buy more chips, and sell more of their tech (servers/DCBBS). Only when growth stops being so explosive this company will start making real money.

DELL looks dramatically better on cash-flow quality TODAY, but what about growth opportunity?.

SMCI is the more interesting cash-flow turnaround story: its earnings are already substantial, and Q4 was the first clear sign that operating cash flow can recover.

Now lets talk about VALUATION.

DELL: $302,81B
SMCI: $24,2B

So Dell is worth roughly 12.5x as much as SMCI. Yet the underlying businesses aren't 12.7× apart in profitability. Dell makes 2.7x more profits than SMCI, but has much higher cash flow.

Trailing valuation

Price / Sales

DELL: ~2.45×
SMCI: ~0.56×

Price / FY2026 GAAP Earnings

DELL: ~47×
SMCI: ~9.8×

SMCI is guiding for $65–72B of FY2027 revenue, versus $39.1B in FY2026.

That's roughly 75% growth at the midpoint.

Dell, meanwhile, is guiding for $138–142B of FY2027 revenue and $11.52 GAAP EPS at the midpoint. At $468.65, that's approximately 41× forward GAAP earnings.

If SMCI can get working capital under control and turn its rapidly growing earnings into FCF, 9.8× trailing earnings looks extremely cheap.

If it continues growing revenue while consuming enormous amounts of cash, then the low multiple may be justified.

Post your opinions on the comments below! I know it’s a dramatic company, but fast growing companies are always hard to manage. No

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u/Few_Painting_8018 — 1 day ago
▲ 11 r/SMCIDiscussion+1 crossposts

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u/DonaldTrumpWon69420 — 2 days ago

SMCI CEO decided to quickly double revenue with additional financing

Cash flow projections can vary greatly depending on the initial assumptions, but the path chosen gives Charles Liang the best chance of achieving his $110 stock price Performance Award Target. I've constructed an FY27 framework to compare against actual performance as the year unfolds.

Parabolic growth scenario after dilutive financing (economy of scale, best leverage from robotics and automation, potential for re-rating, and most importantly fastest Time to Online (TTO) :

Scenario Revenue GM Net Income EPS Fair Value (7.8×) Re-rated (12×) Re-rated (15×)
Bear $65B 13% $5.53B $8.01 $63/share $96/share $120/share
Base $72B 15% $7.56B $10.96 $86/share $131/share $164/share
Bull $80B 17% $10.00B $14.49 $114/share $174/share $217/share

Strong growth scenario without dilutive financing (path not chosen):

Scenario Revenue GM Net Margin Net Income EBITDA/share Fair Value/share
Bear $50B 11% 6.5% $3.25B $6.33 $45–50/share
Base $55B 12% 7.5% $4.13B $7.67 $55–60/share
Bull $60B 13% 8.5% $5.10B $9.00 $65–70/share
u/Busy-Delivery4250 — 4 days ago

The calvaries coming

Whales loaded... While you see people posting bear $hit trying to keep the stock down. Don't be surprised if after audit results come out in September smci gets rerated and rockets.

u/Ifuks4money — 5 days ago

Views for next week (17 aug-23 aug)

This week has been good for SMCI.

WHAT ARE YOU ALL THINKING FOR NEXT WEEK.

Will the price go up.

Will it cross its high for this week which was $42.06.

Will it go down.

What you all think and are expecting from SMCI this coming week.

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u/Calm-Buy-4855 — 5 days ago

Yet another hit piece - DDR5 patent case

Simply Wall St has put out a SMCI hit piece titled;

"Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Hit With DDR5 Patent Cases At ITC And Federal Court"

link: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/super-micro-computer-smci-hit-031846891.html

  • Netlist has filed new patent complaints against Super Micro Computer (NasdaqGS:SMCI) at the U.S. International Trade Commission and in U.S. District Court regarding DDR5 memory module technology.
  • The ITC case seeks an investigation into alleged infringement and potential exclusion of certain Super Micro DDR5 products from the U.S. market.
  • The federal lawsuit requests damages and other remedies tied to Super Micro Computer's use and sale of the disputed DDR5 memory related products.
  • The actions come as Super Micro Computer plays an important role in AI infrastructure hardware, which could leave investors weighing legal and supply chain risk around key systems.

^^^ Those are the bullet points for the story.

The story (and that's all it is - cool story bro) is clearly framed to make SMCI look like the primary defendant and stir up more FUD against SMCI.

The reality is entirely different.

Super Micro is not the main defendant in Netlist's DDR5 litigation. The primary parties are Samsung and Micron, because they are the memory manufacturers whose DDR5 DIMMs/HBM are at the center of the patent claims. Other respondents listed include Dell, Google, and Meta, but Simply Wall St seems to ignore that and focus solely on SMCI.

Netlist alleges that Samsung's DDR5 DIMMs and HBM infringe six patents in the current ITC investigation. Netlist has separate litigation against Micron involving memory modules, HBM and DIMMs. Samsung and Micron are the major defendants because they actually manufacture the claimed patent-infringing memory.

Supermicro is primarily an OEM/system company. Netlist's ITC complaint says Super Micro's products contain the allegedly infringing Samsung memory.

So what?

Imo that's like Netlist suing you or I for using RAM modules made by Samsung or Micron in our desktop computers. It's ridiculous. We did not infringe on any patent - we did not make the modules, we're just an innocent 3rd party who purchased it in good faith.

Companies or individuals who publish false or misleading negative stories to drive down a stock price (a practice known as a "short-and-distort" market manipulation scheme) are primarily investigated and prosecuted by the SEC for civil enforcement and the DOJ for criminal charges.

Simply Wall St should certainly be investigated for what appears to be a blatant short and distort story against SMCI, imo.

Netlist should also be under scrutiny for including 3rd parties this way in their litigation.

u/333Nereus — 5 days ago

SMCI is gaining traction with Enterprise customers creating durable margin gains

Supermicro announces Fiscal Year 2026 Q4 financial results.

Highlights:
▸Net sales of $11.1 billion versus $10.2 billion in Q3'26 and $5.8 billion in Q4'25.
▸Gross margin of 17.5% versus 9.9% in Q3'26 and 9.5% in Q4'25.
Net income of $1,178 million versus $483 million in Q3'26 and $195 million in Q4'25.

"Our Total AI/IT Solutions strategy continues to deliver strong results, we added several hundred enterprise and other customers in the past year, generated more than $60 billion in new orders, and booked record backlog entering fiscal 2027," said Charles Liang Founder, President and CEO of Supermicro. "As demand accelerates, we are improving profitability through a richer enterprise customer mix and broader adoption of our optimized Data Center Building Block Solutions® (DCBBS) architecture. Combined with continued investment in technology leadership, manufacturing scale, and global compliance, we are enabling customers to deploy AI infrastructure faster and more efficiently."

Thanks to our customers, partners, and the Supermicro team for making this quarter an extraordinary success!

I expected the DCBBS margin contribution but the Enterprise strength was a nice surprise. They've strengthened the Sales organization to help support and grow the Enterprise market.

u/Busy-Delivery4250 — 6 days ago

Im feeling sick…

man what a hold through yesterday, today is SO MUCH EASIER

update: cashed out 68K usd. Remaining 25k USD to run free

3.5x on my 27k usd in a matter of days. It feels unreal. I’ll be playing out my Aug 21/28 calls and then im putting it all down till next year

thanks all for being part of the journey, was cool to connect with some of yall, and grats to the other big winners here!!

will be converting a good stash of my port into SMCI shares before 2027. To the moon baby!

u/DestructionYT — 7 days ago

SMCI is stupidly undervalued — the math and AI momentum don't lie

Right now, the only thing keeping the stock down from 40 is the psychological aspect of "$40". Once we see the resolution of the employee governance case (which isn't even aimed at SMCI as a company, just the specific employees involved) and the official 10-K filing, we are going to see this motherfucker moon into 60–70s territory.

I've been on this subreddit for a while and held my 1,000+ shares throughout this entire shitstorm. I remember all the "40 billion" meme posts back when everyone was in disbelief over Charles' comments during earnings calls. Yet here we are: we made $39.1B this FY and management is guiding for 65-72bn in upcoming FY2027. FY2025 revenue was $22B — this growth trajectory is completely insane.

Every single quarter, it’s the same story from big tech: "We are increasing our CapEx." AI infrastructure is alpha and omega, and all of tech knows it. Oracle is taking on massive debt to finance it; Google, Meta, and Microsoft continue their massive spending sprees. Nebius, CoreWeave, Iren, Dell, HPE — everyone sees how critical this AI race is.

As a software developer, I see the impact firsthand. Integrating MCP between my IDE and tools like Atlassian, Figma, Datadog, etc., has been a total game-changer. The amount of time AI agents save me daily has sent my productivity through the roof.

Everywhere you look, people are talking to AI tools on their phones, fact-checking with Gemini/ChatGPT/Claude, or posting on LinkedIn about how they built a functional app in two minutes with a single prompt. Imagine where this tech will be 10+ years from now — without even speculating on quantum computing or robotics. AI will be built into literally everyone's life whether they want it or not.

Where SMCI destroys competitors like Dell and HPE is our DCBBS technology, liquid cooling, and speed to delivery. Deploying AI servers takes Supermicro just 2 to 4 weeks thanks to modular building-block manufacturing, while Dell and Lenovo trail behind at 6 to 8 weeks.

I can't even comprehend how a company projecting revenue in the 65bn-72bn range is sitting at a valuation under $30B. Even with gross margins around ~10%-10,4% for up and coming FY, this price level is RIDICULOUS.

TL;DR: Mass CapEx spending isn't slowing down, SMCI's speed-to-delivery wipes the floor with Dell/Lenovo, and guiding for  this revenue while valued under $30B is an absolute steal. Once the legal noise and 10-K clear up, we rocket.

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u/DotaNewcomer — 7 days ago

Smci and DOJ

Finally everything starts to look good. As long term investor I’m of course happy. I have always believed in this company and its business. The stock is heading back toward $52 where it was in May but it was so frustrating to see it falling the following June even though the guidance was already good. The management seems to be at times inexperienced but the company had such a fast growth that probably it takes time to get organized at a higher level. The company is still in the hands of its founder. Earnings, P/E, margins, EPS, guidance, accounting and filings issues seem to get better. In my opinion the export rules violations are nowadays the only dark areas. I have no idea when the trial will start and I don’t understand why few unfaithful employees / officers didn’t plead guilty trying to negotiate with DoJ. They are jeopardizing the lives of all people working for this company damaging its shareholders. I mean they smuggled servers removing labels using hairdryers. Come on. I’m probably very naive pretending ethical behaviors. Despite all the drama of the past few years I’m holding and increased my stake.
Let me know your thoughts.

reddit.com
u/Rare-Bee2151 — 7 days ago
▲ 138 r/SMCIDiscussion+2 crossposts

$SMCI just crushed earnings. Gotta be the most hated AI stock out there. Time to buy?

SuperMicroComputer, (SMCI) just smashed earnings:

- Revenue: $11.1 billion, est: $11.56 billion
- EPS: $1.7, est: $0.96

They missed on revenue but the larger worry was EPS. safe to say that absolutely killed there.

What are we thinking on this company guys? Buy or sell? Next few years certainly looks promising!

u/Got_Restarted — 9 days ago

SMCI ripping 19% yesterday and I'm just sitting here watching

Ended up locking in only $200 of profit before it blasted straight to the moon, kicking self for not holding a little longer.

u/One-Travel970 — 7 days ago