
r/SMCIDiscussion

SMCI expanding TAM to include Lunar economy.
July, 2 2026
Supermicro is participating in a program with #AiRANACULUS to optimize communication networks in outer space!
NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration has awarded AiRANACULUS a $5 million Civilian Commercialization Readiness Pilot Program (CCRPP) contract for next-generation communications networks for the Moon and future deep-space missions.
Supermicro will work alongside NASA Ames Research Center and industry leaders to advance autonomous heterogeneous lunar networking technologies.
Read the press release here: https://hubs.la/Q04nqyY20
Charles Liang has openly tweeted/posted about working with Lip-Bu Tan and Musk’s ecosystem, and explicitly praised the Denifinity/Terafab idea, positioning Supermicro as a key infrastructure partner for that “infinite compute” vision — including its potential extension into space and orbital data centers.
SMCI has entered a Parabolic growth phase
On the last earnings call CEO laid out two very different growth paths, and only one of them required additional financing.
1. Path A: “Normal” Growth — No New Financing Needed
On the call, the CEO said clearly:
- If SMCI continued at the existing growth rate,
- their current balance sheet and cash flow
- were sufficient to fund operations and expansion.
This is the “steady hypergrowth” path — big numbers, but manageable with internal cash generation.
2. Path B: “Sales Double Again” — Additional Financing Required
He also said:
- If sales doubled,
- and the pipeline expanded faster than internal cash flow could support,
- they would need external financing to keep up.
This is the “Parabolic growth” path — the one startup investors dream about, because it means the company is scaling faster than its own cash engine can support.
3. SMCI revealed they hit Path B — the Parabolic‑growth scenario
The financing wasn’t because SMCI was struggling.
It was because SMCI won so much business that:
- the pipeline expanded beyond internal cash capacity,
- sovereign AI orders surged,
- DCBBS rack deployments accelerated,
- and the company needed capital to keep up with demand.
This is exactly what happens in high‑growth startups:
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4. Startup investors expect this — it’s part of Parabolic growth
In the startup world, this is normal:
- You build a product pipeline
- Demand explodes
- Working capital spikes
- You raise
- You scale
- EBITDA ramps
- Early investors get rewarded
SMCI is now in that exact phase.
5. The “growing pains” are the price of supercharged EBITDA later
Once the pipeline is fully synchronized:
- new orders entering the back of the pipe
- are funded by EBITDA from orders exiting the front
- and the whole system becomes self‑funding
This is why the CEO framed the financing as a growth enabler.
6. Shareholders benefit because EBITDA growth accelerates
The financing supports:
- more racks
- more sovereign AI deployments
- more DCBBS mix
- more liquid‑cooled systems
- more high‑margin AI factories
Which means:
EBITDA grows faster than revenue.
This is the part many people miss.
Bottom Line
SMCI didn’t raise capital because they were in trouble.
They raised capital because they hit the parabolic‑growth scenario the CEO described— the one where sales double again and the pipeline needs more fuel.
Startup investors love this phase.
It’s chaotic, messy, and full of growing pains —
but it’s also where the biggest EBITDA expansion happens and often cheap shares can be purchased to maximize ROI.
And SMCI just entered it.
Should the US government take a stake in SMCI?
Happy 4th!!!
I made a DCF model for SMCI
DCF model attributes
- WACC is 12.6%
- Growth rate: 2027:70%, and gradually decreases to 5% in 2030.
- FcF margin as low as 5%.
Smoltek Nanotech Holding (OTC: SMLTF) – DD on a Swedish Deep-Tech Microcap Entering Commercialization
The semiconductor industry faces an increasingly difficult challenge.
AI chips, GPUs, and next-generation processors require ever smaller, thinner, and more efficient capacitors for power delivery. Traditional capacitor technologies are approaching their physical limits, creating demand for new solutions.
Smoltek is developing one of those potential solutions.
After more than 20 years of research and development, the company has developed CNF-MIM capacitors based on carbon nanofibers. According to the company, the technology aims to deliver significantly higher capacitance density in a much smaller footprint while also offering the potential for 30–40% lower manufacturing costs compared with current leading technologies.
The technology was originally developed at Chalmers MC2, one of Europe's leading nanotechnology cleanrooms, and is now transitioning from lab to fab together with industrial partners.
Current partners include:
• ITRI (Taiwan) – the semiconductor research institute that helped establish companies such as TSMC and UMC, now supporting Smoltek's industrialization.
• Yageo Group – one of the world's largest capacitor manufacturers, currently validating Smoltek's first commercial capacitor platform, Gen-One.
• Heraeus Precious Metals – collaborating with Smoltek on applications within hydrogen technology.
Rather than building expensive manufacturing facilities, Smoltek's strategy is to license its technology, with potential future revenue coming from upfront payments, milestone payments, and recurring royalties through Service License Agreements (SLAs) and Joint Development Agreements (JDAs).
Beyond semiconductors, the company is also developing technology for PEM electrolysis, where its nanotechnology has demonstrated the potential to reduce iridium consumption by more than 95%, addressing one of the major cost challenges in green hydrogen production.
With a market capitalization of less than SEK 600 million (approximately $60 million USD), the company remains an early-stage deep-tech investment.
Recent Financing
Smoltek recently completed an oversubscribed rights issue, with subscriptions reaching approximately 184% of the offering.
Including the oversubscription allocation, the company raised approximately SEK 82.1 million (before issue costs and loan offsets).
According to CEO Magnus Andersson, the proceeds will be used to accelerate commercialization and industrial scaling, with the objective of securing future SLAs and JDAs, while targeting positive cash flow from 2027.
Why I'm Following Smoltek
- 20+ years of R&D
- Proprietary carbon nanofiber technology
- Industrial partners including ITRI, Yageo, and Heraeus
- Commercial validation currently underway
- Recently completed an oversubscribed (184%) financing
- Asset-light licensing business model
- Exposure to both AI semiconductor infrastructure and hydrogen technology
- Started trading on the U.S. OTC market under ticker SMLTF
- Extensive IP portfolio with more than 90 patents and patent applications protecting the company's core technologies and manufacturing processes.
Risks
This remains a pre-revenue company. Commercial agreements are not guaranteed, commercialization could take longer than expected, and future financing may still be required if licensing agreements are delayed.
I'm sharing this because I find it to be an interesting deep-tech company that appears to be approaching a key commercialization phase.
Not financial advice. I'd be interested to hear what others think, especially anyone with experience in semiconductor packaging, passive components, or power delivery.
SMCI Business Update on Taiwan
https://www.supermicro.com/en/news/taiwan-business-update-2026-07-01
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
980 Rock Avenue
San Jose, CA 95131, USA
July 1, 2026
Dear Valued Customers and Partners,
I am reaching out regarding this week’s events in Taiwan and recent media coverage about shipments of Supermicro products. We deeply value the trust you place in us to meet your AI, cloud, and enterprise infrastructure needs, and believe it is important that you hear directly from me.
Over the past few days, the media has reported on a Taiwanese investigation relating to Supermicro. First and foremost, I want to emphasize that the relevant authorities have confirmed that Supermicro is not a target of this investigation. In fact, we have been providing information to and working in cooperation with Taiwanese authorities for several months to assist in their efforts. We highlighted aspects of our collaboration in a May 28, 2026 press release, which you can read here.
Let me also correct one point that has been widely misreported: Supermicro’s offices in Taiwan were not raided by any government authorities. Rather, this week’s events reflect our ongoing collaboration with Taiwanese authorities. Here are the facts:
- On Monday (6/29/26), four Supermicro Taiwan employees were detained for questioning in connection with the Taiwanese investigation regarding Supermicro’s sale of products to a technology company in Taiwan.
- We coordinated with authorities to provide access to those employees’ desks and electronic devices.
- Two of the four employees have been detained pending a hearing, and the other two have been released on bail.
- We have zero tolerance for anyone who violates the law or our internal policies, and the four employees were immediately placed on administrative leave pending the conclusion of the Taiwanese investigation.
We do not have the full visibility of the investigation as it is ongoing. Most importantly, I want to assure you this has absolutely no impact on our ability to serve and support you. Our team remains 100% focused on execution—delivering the highest-performance, most reliable datacenter infrastructure solutions and driving the first-to-market and first-to-online innovations you have always expected from us.
Supermicro remains committed to protect US interests and to safeguarding our advanced technologies and intellectual property for the benefit of our customers, our partners, our company and our industry. While managing a complex global supply chain and a multi-tier distribution model is an industry-wide challenge, we maintain a robust compliance program. As part of this, we continue to work closely with government authorities, external advisors, and other stakeholders to strengthen our safeguards, prevent illicit technology diversion, and navigate evolving threats and industry risks.
As always, thank you for your strong partnership and support. If you have further questions, please reach out to your typical company contact.
Sincerely,
Matt Thauberger
Chief Revenue Officer
Supermicro
SMCI says there was no Raid, only continued cooperation with Taiwan in investigation of suspect activity of lone individuals
SMCI says Bloomberg and other media sensationalized the ongoing cooperative investigative activity:
Taiwan Business Update – July 1, 2026
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
980 Rock Avenue
San Jose, CA 95131, USA
July 1, 2026
Dear Valued Customers and Partners,
I am reaching out regarding this week’s events in Taiwan and recent media coverage about shipments of Supermicro products. We deeply value the trust you place in us to meet your AI, cloud, and enterprise infrastructure needs, and believe it is important that you hear directly from me.
Over the past few days, the media has reported on a Taiwanese investigation relating to Supermicro. First and foremost, I want to emphasize that the relevant authorities have confirmed that Supermicro is NOT a target of this investigation. In fact, we have been providing information to and working in cooperation with Taiwanese authorities for several months to assist in their efforts. We highlighted aspects of our collaboration in a May 28, 2026 press release, which you can read here.
Let me also correct one point that has been widely misreported: Supermicro’s offices in Taiwan were not raided by any government authorities. Rather, this week’s events reflect our ongoing collaboration with Taiwanese authorities. Here are the facts:
- On Monday (6/29/26), four Supermicro Taiwan employees were detained for questioning in connection with the Taiwanese investigation regarding Supermicro’s sale of products to a technology company in Taiwan.
- We coordinated with authorities to provide access to those employees’ desks and electronic devices.
- Two of the four employees have been detained pending a hearing, and the other two have been released on bail.
- We have zero tolerance for anyone who violates the law or our internal policies, and the four employees were immediately placed on administrative leave pending the conclusion of the Taiwanese investigation.
We do not have the full visibility of the investigation as it is ongoing. Most importantly, I want to assure you this has absolutely no impact on our ability to serve and support you. Our team remains 100% focused on execution—delivering the highest-performance, most reliable datacenter infrastructure solutions and driving the first-to-market and first-to-online innovations you have always expected from us.
Supermicro remains committed to protect US interests and to safeguarding our advanced technologies and intellectual property for the benefit of our customers, our partners, our company and our industry. While managing a complex global supply chain and a multi-tier distribution model is an industry-wide challenge, we maintain a robust compliance program. As part of that commitment, we continue to work closely with government authorities, external advisors, and other stakeholders to strengthen our safeguards, prevent illicit technology diversion, and navigate evolving threats and industry risks.
As always, thank you for your strong partnership and support. If you have further questions, please reach out to your typical company contact.
Sincerely,
Matt Thabuerger
Chief Revenue Officer
Supermicro
https://www.supermicro.com/en/news/taiwan-business-update-2026-07-01
Working Capital, latest Financing and Guidance FY27
Let's have some fun with a little calculation today.
I'll use a very basic approach to calculate working capital by adding up all current assets and subtracting all current liabilities.
After Q326 we had roughly $13.4B in working capital. Now add the $4.9B from the latest financing and we end up with ~$18.3B.
So I was wondering if there is a connection between working capital and revenues in subsequent quarters?
Of course it is, bc SMCI is investing in its growth!
I came up with this diagram:
The latest offerings make perfect sense if you assume the trend shown in the chart continues and quarterly revenue grows to around $15B over the next few quarters.
I'm usually very conservative when it comes to financial modeling, but I genuinely believe we'll reach $60B in FY27. That would translate into another exceptional year of growth—50% year over year, following 79% growth last year.
What are your thoughts?
Taiwan prosecutors detain Super Micro employees over chip exports
uk.finance.yahoo.comFirst time buying Micron and going in, I'm a simple man, I see a dip: I buy the dip. Nuff said
First time buying Nvidia and going in, I'm a simple man, I see a dip: I buy the dip. Nuff said
Recently SMCI customer Verda, SpaceX/xAI and now reportedly Meta plans to sell compute due to unprecedented demand
According to Bloomberg, Meta is forming a business to generate revenue from excess computing power sold to outside customers as part of an internal initiative called Meta Compute.
The plans include two potential offerings. The first involves selling access to various AI models hosted on Meta’s existing infrastructure—similar to Amazon Web Services’ Bedrock offering—with Meta running the data centers and chips powering the models, including its own Muse Spark models, and charging developers to access them. The second involves selling access to raw computing capacity, similar to neocloud businesses like CoreWeave.
SMCI updated their progress on their increased manufacturing capacity today. Looks like they are anticipating new customer demand.
Anyone buying $SMCI? Is the Risk too large?
This company seems like a complete clusterfuck from a management perspective. Offices in Taiwan just got raided. However, there is no denying the growth in revenue and potential for margins to continue expanding if AI demand stays strong.
Is this a risk/reward worth taking?
SMCI Taiwan raid. What the facts actually say vs. how the headline reads
The headline spooking everyone: "Taiwan authorities raid Supermicro's office." Coming right after the DOJ indicted co-founder Wally Liaw, it pattern-matches to the walls are closing in. That's the fear. Here's what the reporting actually says when you read past the headline.
What actually happened:
- This is the second wave of an existing probe, not a fresh bombshell. It builds directly on a May bust where three people were arrested for using fraudulent export paperwork to ship Supermicro servers loaded with Nvidia chips to China, Hong Kong, and Macau.
- This first probe is the one where Supermicro publicly said its collaboration with Taiwanese authorities led to the arrests and the seizure of 50 servers that had been deceptively acquired after being sold to an authorized reseller.
- Monday's sweep hit 12 locations, and six individuals were summoned for questioning on suspicion of breach of trust and falsifying documents — in an operation led by the Coast Guard's Keelung Investigative Corps with support from the Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau.
- The "breach of trust" charge is the key tell. Under Taiwanese law, breach of trust (背信) is a crime committed by someone entrusted to manage another party's affairs who betrays them — it structurally requires a victim, the principal who got betrayed. If the suspects are employees of these firms, the natural reading is they betrayed their own employers. That frames the companies as the injured party, not the perpetrator.
- Investigators described themselves as tracing the scheme deeper into the corporate supply chain. Translation: pulling records from everyone who touched the goods — manufacturer, distributor, data-center operator. That's evidence-gathering against the network, not an accusation against one company.
- Supermicro was not charged as a company in earlier phases of the probe — and isn't in the US case either.
- Albatron, a distributor that was also raided today, said in an exchange filing there was no financial or operational impact. Supermicro can almost certainly say the same.
- Context most people miss: in Taiwan's civil-law system, search-and-seizure is a routine evidence-collection tool used even against parties who aren't targets. It doesn't carry the "you're the target" weight a US corporate raid does.
Fear vs. fact:
- Fear: "They raided Supermicro → Supermicro is the next target → Liaw was just the start."
- What the facts support: an expansion of an existing case, gathering records across the supply chain, with individuals as the named suspects and a charge that actually implies the companies were betrayed by insiders.
TL;DR: "Authorities raid Supermicro" sounds like the hammer dropping, especially post-Liaw. But the facts read more like a routine (if aggressive-looking) expansion to gather evidence and trace a smuggling network, with the individuals as suspects and the companies more plausibly positioned as victims of insider breach of trust. It's not a clearance, and there are real unknowns. But raid ≠ accusation against the company.
I am frustrated!!!!!
This is crazy?!!!!!!
SMCI offices in Taiwan raided by authorities
Holy crap.. someone really has a hate-on for this company.
Taiwanese authorities expanded an investigation into the illegal smuggling of advanced AI chips to China by raiding multiple Super Micro Computer Inc. ($SMCI) office locations in Taiwan. The raids are part of a broader crackdown on document forgery and fraudulent declarations aimed at bypassing strict U.S. and Taiwanese trade restrictions.
The expanded probe and raids trace back to a massive U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) indictment unsealed in March 2026. Federal prosecutors charged three individuals associated with Super Micro—including co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw—with conspiring to illegally route and divert an estimated $2.5 billion in Nvidia-powered AI servers to China.
MULTIPLE sources.
https://beincrypto.com/taiwan-raid-super-micro-office-smci-shares/
many more..
EDIT: many claiming these were the raids that actually took place on May 21st this year. That was not how this 'new' news was being framed - they did say the raids were *this morning*. This story crashed the SP about 10% immediately on release. IF no raids actually took place this morning, then whoever released it should be facing jail time imo - deliberate manipulation.
FTDs SMCI & SMCX
Latest FTD Update for SMCI & SMCX (after the latest big price drop)
I know a lot of you don't think much of this, but to me it means a lot.
Especially the ~2 million FTDs for SMCI on June 11—levels we haven't seen since September '25.
I strongly believe these could provide additional upward momentum once the stock price starts to rise.
Funnily enough, the deadline is around the time of the quarterly report.