Should the US government take a stake in SMCI?
Happy 4th!!!
Happy 4th!!!
Maybe you already guessed it from the title that I'm a lifelong Windows user who has migrated to Mac, because I have. And after a year of extensive usage, I am feeling much more comfortable than before, but there are still things that I can't wrap my head around:
And I can go and on and on. Is it only me?
As an SMCI bull, like my flair suggests, I'm a long term investor. But today it occurred to me, that what if things are not as rosy as they seem? So this is more directed towards other bulls in here. I encourage you to disprove me with your bull theses.
SMCI was a mom&pop shop, believing in AI long before anyone else did. Then AI comes around the SMCI starts to scale from a mom&pop shop to being one of the big boys around the block. It's about scale and scaling is painful, especially when you have been a mom&pop shop for so long.
Now initially the stock skyrockets, because Wall Street is optimistic at first, they believe in literally everyone who's producing products that are hot in the market.
Then there are the scalability issues. Growth pains. What does the company do to handle the growth? They do anything and everything within their rich, because Wall Street expects numbers. The account irregularities kick in, getting delisted happens as a result of the former. But they still need to scale, so they borrow money from us, the shareholders. And they still need to scale, building out new campuses, new production lines, you name it.
And all of the above happens at the expense of shareholders. And finally when they are in a more financially stable condition and are scaled, guess what. AI products are cheaper, in other words the margins are lower.
So the whole thing becomes a low-margin business, and the SMCI stock is stuck at $30 and grows by 5% year-over-year, if that. Then there are newcomers too. We are now thinking HPE and Dell, but they're the dinosaurs. There will be new kids on the block.
How does SMCI prevents this from happening? Or rather how do you think they're going to prevent it from happening. It's possible that the company wants to become competitive at our expense, and by the time they are competitive, the product they make is not unique anymore. Liquid cooling is their strength, Dell and HPE eventually introduce it in their products. What is SMCI's moat afterwards? Leveraging the fact that it's smaller in size compared to HPE and Dell and it can aggressively offer software solution. Tap into the Silicon Valley talent of software engineers. Now Dell and HPE can do that too. They both have huge presences in Silicon Valley. They may be Texan companies on paper, but the server part of Dell is EMC, and I don't think HPE needs an explanation, because HP was born in Silicon Valley.
So what is it that's still unique about SMCI let's say after 2 years? If it's nothing, then I may just cash out once the stock hits $45 again 🤷♂️
Today is one of those good days where we think our enabler (SMCI) is showing signs of improvement.
Today is one of those good days where we think our enabler is going to places and taking us, its dependents, with themselves.
Today is one of those good days where even when our enabler seems below average, they are still outperforming their worst times.
So yes, it may not be a good day for SMCI as per Wall Street standards, but it's definitely a great day for us, dependents.
And here's to many more days like today! 🍻
I’m sorry, but shouldn’t it be the other way around?
Roku should have followed the Succession playbook and bought Fox
Hello folks,
First off I'd like to extend my thanks to the more financially literate cohort of this sub for giving insightful explanations into SMCI's recent capital raise and easing some of our concerns.
Now back what I wanted to say. If you live in the Bay Area, you should know that talking about investing and stocks are a part of casual daily small talks that two total strangers can have. The same way in other parts of the world people talk about the weather.
Yesterday I was talking about the stock and SpaceX to a total stranger and then I brought up SMCI. To my surprise the person's partner was an SMCI employee. We talked a lot about the company. I was mostly interested to know about the employee morale there, whether people are happy and how's the sentiment overall. The person had nothing but good things to say. Their partner was very happy there, had worked there for a long time and had also referred several of their friends who are happily employed at SMCI. The other thing was that they all work super crazy hard and have a shit ton of orders coming in. Their execution pace is the fastest in the industry.
Then I asked about Charles and how employees feel about him. What I was told was that Charles is a super smart guy, works very hard and wants SMCI to succeed. The person did agree that the company's communication with the outside world is not their strongest suit and that they should do better.
Now of course the above doesn't say anything about the stock price of the company. Because engineering is one thing and business another. I myself have worked at an engineering company in Silicon Valley with literal C++ geniuses who made a product that was #1 in the market in terms of its capabilities. But because the business side was not able to do its "magic", the company ended up getting delisted from Nasdaq.
Long story short, SMCI is a great company and makes great products. Let's be hopeful that they can also get their financial shit together and give us good returns 🤞
I pasted the transcript of the call into ChatGPT.
Now I have a better idea of what is going on.
SMCI for sure knew that they were gonna do this for quite some time. I just don't understand why they didn't give any hints or about this during their last ER. The last ER was positive and yes it would have affected the stock, but subsequent ERs by HPE and Dell would have boosted the stock.
I can't believe the stock is trading below $30 now. We used to laugh at the analysts when they were coming up with stupidly low price targets, but apparently they knew something about SMCI that we didn't and the current stock price shows it.
I'm gonna continue holding this stock, because the demand for AI is strong, but it's clear that these people don't know how to properly handle their finances and effectively communicate to the public about their plans. It's either that, or it's Charles being Charles and doing Charles things.
One can only imagine the employee morale at this company. They expanding at an astronomical rate, they are hiring aggressively, the compensation packages are tied to the company stock and the company stock does wild swings like this.
I hope they survive this storm. Good luck to us all 🤞
Hi folks, this is a followup to the post I made earlier:
I emptied everything from the trunk and moved it all into my frunk, because I don’t want false positives.
The next thing I did was to lower both of my back seats, because that is something people have been saying here all along. To my surprise the rattles from the back disappeared! This is good and bad news. The good news is I don’t mind riding my back seats down, the bad news is wtf Tesla?!
I think my priority is to fix the squeaks and rattles from the front first. And then make another service appointment where we can ride with the back seats back in their places and fix those.
Wish me luck. I really love this car. It’s such a beauty, especially when I look at it from above, parked next to other cars. I wish these issues can get fixed so I can continue enjoying all the great software features and the superior acceleration that this gem offers!
We got stellar earnings from Dell and HPE.
Dell I can somewhat expect tbh. The founder came back, acquired EMC, did some voodoo magic with the VMWare spinoff. Good job.
HPE however is a certified 🦕 and if they’re able to impress their shareholders by showing the ability to make money off of AI, SMCI has no excuses left.
The next ER should blow past everyone’s expectations. No more fucking excuses about revenue getting deferred, accounting numbers didn’t add up or someone in the company somehow fucked up. If they’re able don’t deliver, this stock will be forever abandoned I think.
Thoughts?
Hello there!
So after 20 years of being a software engineer in the United States I am in the middle of a career break right now. Spent 3 weeks recently in Germany (Munich) and Denmark (Copenhagen, Svendborg, Odense) and Denmark won my heart. I want to move to Denmark.
From what I understand it's not that easy for a US citizen to find a high paying engineering job in Denmark. But I am open to running a small business too. This may be my perception only, but it felt like the small business environment in Denmark was much less competitive than it is in the US. The fact that coffee shops do not open at 5am, dry cleaner places do not open at 6am and they also close very early, I think for someone who wants to work hard (I don't mind working 10 hours a day, I have been doing it all my life) the chances of being successful are very high.
So here are my questions:
You don't need to read the points below, but in case if you're interested, these are the reasons that made me love Denmark:
Thank you all!
Got my 2026 Model S LR in July of last year, brand new.
From the moment I got into the car I heard squeaks and rattles. They didn't catch me by surprise because Tesla, and especially the Model S, were notorious for its build quality issues. And yes, you could get lucky and get a perfectly built car, but the chances of not getting one were very high.
Then the service appointments followed. I made two appointments, where the technician would sit in the car with me and we'd drive on uneven roads, he'd take notes and then try to fix them. Some of the squeaks were fixed from the first appointment, but new ones introduced. After the second ones those newly introduced ones were fixed, but there are still some remaining.
I love the car, I love the FSD, I love the software and Grok and the cool features, but every day in the morning I get into my car, drive for 1-2 minutes and I notice the squeaks and they annoy me. I turn on the radio or play some music and they blend in.
My previous car was a 2016 Audi A4, never had any squeaks. I was in Europe recently and rented a 2024 A3, and again, so perfect in terms of build quality.
I can either:
What would you do?
Thank you all in advance:)
Update:
I'm going with option 2. Just scheduled an appointment with a different service center. The charge is $325 and I approved it. I think they should waive it, but if they don't, I'm gonna make sure I take it back until everything is FULLY FIXED. Wish me luck 🤞
If you think about it, this city has so much potential:
And yet it has a downtown that sucks. The only place where you can go and unwind is Santana Row, but that's more Santa Clara than San Jose.
I know that this started as a rural area and not a tech hub and its growth was enabled by more residential expansion than anything else. Is that an excuse though? China turns rural areas into megacities.
It would be interesting to hear you guys' thoughts on this. Especially those who own properties here and have lived more than one generation. I'm sure a lot of you have emotional ties to the city of San Jose and have always wanted it to thrive. What do you think are the biggest culprits? Is it the local government, what will it take for it to change? Will San Jose ever become a major city that will truly represent its size? It's crazy that many people in CA haven't even heard of San Jose. Like in SoCal, they have heard of San Francisco, maybe even Oakland, but San Jose, probably not so much. Yet people have heard of San Diego, Long Beach, Anaheim, or maybe I have, because I have spent some time in SoCal before moving here.
Pretty much what the title says.
How’s the morale at the company?
Are the employees happy and do they have trust in their executive team?
What do you think needs to change?
Are employees generously compensated and do they believe in the company?
I got mine in July of last year, it 3200 miles on it, doesn’t have FSD, the color is Ultra Red. I have been recently thinking about selling it.
Given the recent surge in demand for these vehicles, do you think I can sell mine at a prive that is not significantly lower from what I paid for it?
What would be my loss, $5K, $10K?