u/sbursp15

Avengers Doomsday - $2.6B. I’ve been underestimating this movie since its been announced but fuck it, it’s undeniably going to be huge. Spider-Man and Endgame Encore has proven that audiences still have confidence in the brand. The only reason I haven’t it higher is because I don’t think the movie will be as good as BND/Endgame. BUT if it is- the sky is the limit.

Dune Part 3: $700M. I see this matching Part 2. May not get as good WOM, but it will leg out well during the holidays, even with Doomsday competition. I trust Villeneuve to deliver.

The Hunger Games SOTR: $500M, expecting an increase from Ballads, this would be a solid result. Won’t match the Jennifer Lawrence films but no one expects it to.

Jumanji: $400M, maybe I’m underestimating, but I don’t think this genre of movie ages well in the 2020’s. Jumanji has run its’ course, the Rock and Hart aren’t the draws they used to be, the comedy is outdated, and the December competition is too strong.

Hexed - $200M, audiences aren’t interested in original animated films, especially generic ones that look like this… This is going to be another Wish.

Thoughts??

It has been an interesting decade for Marvel Studios. Even with a hindered start due to covid- Black Widow, Shang Chi & Eternals all had respectable grosses considering the time period. No Way Home was the TRUE release that brought audiences back to theaters.

2022 was a good year box office wise, not so great for the overall reception of the brand. Multiverse of Madness should've been an easy billion with better reception. Love & Thunder + Wakanda Forever were both hits, but saw decreases from their predecessors (for different reasons of course).

2023 is when we started to worry. GOTG3 was a solid hit but Quantumania was a true underperformance and The Marvels was an all time failure.

Thankfully the brand recovered with just one release in 2024. But then again, had an another bad year. All 2025 releases unperformed. The roller coaster continues this year with Brand New Day becoming one of the biggest successes of all time and Doomsday likely poised to do the same.

How big could these future releases make? We have 5 confirmed.

Secret Wars - This truly depends upon the reception of Doomsday. TBD. Could be an all time hit or an Avengers → Age of Ultron decrease.

Jake Schreier's X-Men - I'm a bit back and forth on this one. X-Men has a solid fanbase and has had successes in the past. But has also had failures in the past. This will be another reboot similar to Fantastic Four: First Steps. However, X-Men is simply more popular than F4. I'm thinking closer to $700M.

Black Panther 3 - David Jonsson is being crowned as the new Black Panther, Denzel Washington joins the cast & Ryan Coogler is coming hot off of Sinners. For those reasons, I believe this will increase from Wakanda Forever. But won't hit the cultural phemomenon status of the first. $1B finish?

Ghost Rider - I have no clue what to predict here. Gosling is well known (but has had his fair share of flops). Shawn Levy has proven to give safe and inoffensive box office hits. But the superhero genre as a whole is having a hard time launching new characters. I'm saying $500M.

For potential releases, I put Shang Chi 2, but at this point I don't see it happening anymore. It's unfortunate but it has simply been too long. Dustin Daniel Cretin just locked in a $2B hit, so they are definitely going to prioritize him working on another Spiderman film rather than this. Speaking of Spiderman, no way they don't do another with DDC & Holland. Imo it should be fast tracked to come out in 2029. A five year wait made sense after NWH, but I don't think the wait after BND needs to be that long. Dr. Strange 3 is another TBD, if it releases I don't see it making more than MOM, as that had a boost from NWH, Wanda & general Marvel goodwill. Fantastic Four may get a sequel? First film didn't set the world on fire but I don't think they would drop these characters. & Deadpool and Wolverine was too big of a hit for there not to be another film, yet I think this one makes similar to the first two films.

Personally I am doubtful, 2026 has a greater abundance of films releasing, but they don’t have the potential to peak as high as Zootopia 2 or Avatar Fire & Ash- with the exception of Doomsday.

Zootopia + Fire and Ash itself accounted for $3.3B+ at the global box office.

I think Doomsday finishes closer to Fire & Ash numbers, I don’t think it surpasses Zootopia 2. Dune around $600-700M, Jumanji around $500M, Hunger Games $500M & Hexed $200M.

Looking back, 2023 has got to be one of if not the craziest box office years there is. Are there any other years that come close to this? Big years like 2019 are indeed crazy, but all of those films were expected to be big and were indeed big. This predictions for this year couldn't have been more off.

Ant Man & The Wasp Quantumania - Biggest Ant-Man opening ever but gets a B cinemascore and tanks. -69.9% second weekend. The first TRUE crack in the MCU's box office reign, which they still have not been able to recover from.

John Wick 4 - Highest-grossing John Wick film and a rare W for Lionsgate.

The Super Mario Bros Movie - $204.6M opening weekend (5-day). Finishes at $1.36B WW, second highest-grossing animated film ever at the time (behind Frozen 2). Highest grossing video game movie ever.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - Presales tracking was not great. Feeling the repercussions of Marvel's 2022 releases and Quantumania. Opens $118.4M, fine but not much bigger than Ant-Man which is worrying. Then drops -47.6% second weekend, best hold for the MCU with the exception of Black Panther. Legs out to $359M domestic and $846M WW, Disney's only true win for the year.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Big success, especially domestically, huge increase from Into the Spider-verse.

Elemental - Damn this opening weekend was terrible. $26.4M, Pixar's worst ever. Recovered spectatularly, huge in South Korea, finishes at $496M WW, biggest original film post-pandemic.

The Flash - What more can be said? We all know the story. Let's say the Keaton walkups did NOT come through.

Indiana Jones & the Dial of Destiny - Reported $419M budget and couldn't even gross that amount.

The Sound of Freedom - $250M+ WW with 75% domestic, made more than several 200M+ budgeted blockbusters this year.

Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning - Great reviews, audience scores & WOM. Tom Cruise coming hot off of TGM. But gets crushed by Sound of Freedom and Barbenheimer. Estimated $220M budget, so ending up with a rather disappointing gross.

Barbie - The biggest film of 2023, biggest for WB, highest grossing directed by a woman. $1.4B WW

Oppenheimer - Nearly a billion for a 3-hour R rated drama. Third biggest film of the year. Biggest for Nolan outside of The Dark Knight trilogy and second highest R-rated film at the time.

Taylor Swift the Eras Tour - Saved us during the writer’s strikes, highest grossing concert film ever.

The Marvels - Lowest grossing MCU film ever, one of the biggest losses ever... Barely crossed $200M WW, how the MCU has fallen so fast.

FNAF - Huge opening and impressive gross for a film with a day and date release.

Wish - Disney's 100th anniversary film ended up being one of their worst films and biggest failures. Only $255M WW.

Wonka - A pleasant surprise, $39M domestic opening and legged out to $634M WW.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - Final gross at $439M was disappointing as hell but... could've been worse.

(1) Avengers Doomsday, (2) Spider-man Brand New Day, (3), Toy Story 5, (4) Michael, (5) The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, (6) Minions & Monsters, (7) The Odyssey, (8) The Devil Wears Prada 2, (9) PHM, (10) Moana.

Happy June, 2026 is halfway over! My previous 2026 predictions have aged quite poorly, overestimated the hell out of Mario, underestimated Michael, so I can’t wait to be wrong again here. But that is the fun of this sub, isn't it?

I do think the 2 Marvel movies win the year but I’m more conservative than most with these predictions. Difficult for any of these 2 to near $2B without a healthy Asia, which simply hasn’t been the same for any comic book movie since Covid.

Toy Story 5 should comfortably be the highest grossing Toy Story movie and I can see it getting up to $1.4B with good WOM.

Minions makes around the same as every other film in the franchise.

The Odyssey is big but not as big as Oppenheimer.

Moana performs fine but not Moana 2 level. May be a hot take here. I don’t think this live action has the nostalgia factor like Stitch. Presales have only been going on for a day or so and are meh, nothing to worry about yet, it’s a kids movie that’s months out. But I don’t think this is near of a lock for a billion as others think, Stitch barely crossed the mark which much more going for it.

Not pictured: Dune Part 3 is another Wicked For Good, decreases from Part 2 mainly due to not being as accessible of a story as the previous installment. Finishes around $600-650M.

Let’s see how poorly this ages.

Reupload because I forgot PHM, thanks for pointing that out & I apologize to Rocky.

In the past year we have had updates to Test Track, Frozen Ever After, Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, Soarin', Rock 'n' Roller Coaster, and Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run.

Honestly- I think these have all been great updates. It is nice to see some older/classic rides being upgraded and taken care of. Even "newer" rides like Frozen and Smugglers Run being improved is a good sign.

What other rides are due for similar updates?