u/shillxbt

9.92M HYPE unlocks to core contributors today.
About 1% of supply.
A little over $600M at current price. It's the biggest single line on the July calendar and the whole timeline is pricing it the same way: new supply hits, contributors sell, price bleeds.

The reflex has been wrong most of this year. A few reasons worth sitting with before the panic sets the tone.

Contributors have not been selling. Past unlocks show them restaking the tokens straight back into the protocol to earn fees, which is the opposite of routing them to an exchange. Underneath that, the assistance fund converts around 97% of all protocol fees into open-market HYPE buybacks. 41M+ tokens have already been bought back and burned, roughly 4.2% of supply. That is a structural bid sitting under every single unlock, buying while the timeline panics.

Then there's the actual track record. across the six monthly unlocks in 2026, HYPE fell in the week after january, february and may, and rallied after march, april and june. The average was +4.17% in the seven days following the unlock. The event that everyone treats as a guaranteed dump has, on average, been green a week later.

That's the macro. the part you can't pull from a calendar or a price-prediction article is who is actually positioned into this one right now. so i pulled the cohort bias on HYPE this morning. the profitable wallets are long:

• money printer, smart money, grinder and humble earner cohorts are all leaning long
• most bullish cohort on the board right now is whale
• smart money is the largest by size at $23.9M in open positions, and still long
• even the >$2.5m wallets, the biggest positions on the book, are positioned long

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/perps/HYPE

The one cohort sitting short into the unlock is giga-rekt. 8 wallets, the group that's been liquidated over and over. the wallets with the worst track record on the platform are the ones fading it. That's the company you keep if you short today.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/perps/HYPE

Last 24h on HL:

• $86.6M liquidated across 4,347 traders
• Shorts: $61.3M. Longs: $25.26M
• Roughly 2.4x more short pain than long pain
• ~305 liquidations an hour, avg size ~$11.8K
• Biggest single hit: a $437K BTC long, wallet 0xd920...f20

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/liquidations

The interesting part is the shape. This wasn't a steady bleed. One candle accounts for most of the $86.6M, a single wave of short liquidations that squeezed price up and carried out everyone leaning the wrong way in a few minutes. The rest of the day was quiet by comparison.

So the setup was: a lot of size stacked short, price ran, stops and liq levels cascaded, and the squeeze fed itself. Classic short crowd getting punished for consensus.

What are you watching for the next one? Feels like there's still size positioned that could go the same way if BTC pushes.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/heatmap

At least we now see a clear change in regime for bullishness/bearishness towards crypto from all cohorts.

The MiCA transitional period ends today (July 1). Platforms serving EU clients now need a full CASP license or they stop serving them, and it applies based on where the client sits, regardless of where the company is incorporated. Plenty of previously-registered platforms never got authorized, so a chunk are winding down or offboarding EU users this week like Binance and ByBit sending users to their EU subsidy.

Most takes are written for the CEX world. Here's the onchain read.

MiCA regulates centralized service providers, the entities that hold your keys and KYC you. Hyperliquid is a DEX, non-custodial, no one holding your funds. Whether MiCA reaches a fully decentralized protocol with no intermediary is genuinely unsettled, and I won't pretend it's clean. This isn't legal advice and I'm not the one to give it.

But the protocol and the frontend are two separate things, and that's where it gets real. No regulator can switch off the Hyperliquid L1 itself. The smart contracts sit onchain and anyone with a wallet can reach them. The frontend is another matter. app.hyperliquid.xyz is a hosted interface a company operates, and that absolutely can be geofenced or ordered offline in a jurisdiction.

Here's the thing everyone forgets. US and Ontario/Canada users are already banned from that interface. It's IP geofenced, no KYC, and per Similarweb the single biggest slice of Hyperliquid's traffic still comes from the US. People VPN in and trade anyway. The ban has been there the whole time and the platform kept growing straight through it.

That's the pattern worth watching. Tighten the centralized on-ramps and the crypto-native flow just routes onchain instead. Perp trader counts have been climbing the entire time the restrictions got stricter.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/stats

So when the EU squeezes its CEXs this week, the honest question is whether some of that offboarded flow does what the US cohort already does: self-custody, VPN if it has to, trade onchain. Maybe a trickle, maybe real.

And that's checkable instead of a vibe. You can watch net inflows to onchain perps, whether new-wallet activity ticks up in EU hours, whether the cohorts that front-run this stuff are already positioned. If it's real it leaves a footprint. If the footprint isn't there, it was just a story.

Hello Guys, the market has been open for a bit over an hour into this new week. Lets have a look how the HL traders are positioned and what their sentiment says. This graphic shows us that broadly the market is bullish as a whole except for:

- The two groups with the biggest size

- The two groups that make the most money

Not really great as an overall measurement because if you ask me I would always prefer going with the ones that are actually (very) profitable and manage a lot of size. Before you ask, yes, this timeframe is based on Positions opened in the last 24 hours so no overlap with whales farming funding for a year now.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/

Now if we look closer on a per-contract basis the market outlook looks more like this:

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/heatmap

In the midfield you can see that the ones with basically zero size and those always on the losing end are pretty much bullish everything. While the closer you go to the edges the darker and more red it gets. That by itself doesn't have to mean anything but consider that the one on the far left is the largest sizing and the one on the far right is the highest PnL.

Let's see how this week turns out, I personally have a feeling we will keep ranging but according to the Hyperliquid whales this might not be the case.

Hello guys, I don't want to shill our service as much as I want to highlight one special thing: Building a system around accessible data is very easy if you know what you do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJueofMbUMM&list=PLa-7OXxmxz-OkauNJwcWwrCx6uLjCALkj

>

Without information, every trade is just a guess. There’s a reason the best traders are either seasoned discretionary traders or those who have built a system with a proven edge.

But where do you get the information to identify good entries and exits, or to know whether the market is ranging or trending?

You can stare at charts for years and develop an instinct for it, but even then, your emotions can still control your decisions like a Damocles sword hanging above your head.

To develop a real edge, you need to know what others are doing and profit from the mispricings.

The profitable cohorts on Hyperliquid are positioned somewhere right now. Surviving variance is the goal or you end up as a turkey on thanksgiving. You can see exactly where they lean before you enter, and watch them turn before you’re still left holding.

Tools like HyperTracker deliver you the data behind every decision. Same platform, same clicks but you stop entering, sizing, and closing positions based on vibes.

You might not be a worse trader than others, just a less informed one, and that, my friend, is fixable.

Funnily enough HIP-3 was partly shilled as a great vehicle to trade stocks on the weekend. Don't get me wrong it does exactly that and works wonderful but once monday arrives you can see volume spikes between 3-10x on stocks where regular markets are open anyway.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/perps

This shows Hyperliquid's strength is not only the ability to trade on weekends and after hours but also as a serious alternative venue for tradfi to get access into markets.

I hope to see these numbers increase and stabilize more cleanly but so far very happy with the volume we are seeing. HIP-3 has been more than a success!

Lets have a little look into how the hyperliquid traders are positioned currently, over the last 7 days you can clearly see money printers much more bearish than other cohorts with the worst performing ones being the most bullish.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/heatmap

And it doesn't look much better on the <24 timeframe as we have almost the same positoning there:

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/heatmap

SpaceX officially and successfully IPO'd on friday and some expected a heavy crash, others expected the interest on Hyperliquid will die down but what actually changed?

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/perps/xyz:SPCX

The most bullish cohort are still the ones with small size but whats more relevant is the bigger cohorts and very successful ones have actually changed their stance from very bearish to bearish. That means for sizing and overall comfort to trade it became a serious asset to trade.

Open Interest and Volume are still at the same numbers they were on IPO day with almost $300mil in OI and over $1.2B in volume traded! We see more people actively trading and the IPO was a complete success on Hyperliquid which validated the protocol further.

By the way, currently SPCX has the second highest volume traded over 24h on all of Hyperliquid, even surpassing both HYPE and ETH.

The best traders have also by now achieved a 7 figure PnL and run it up incredibly well with positions placed 2 and 4 days ago respectively:

https://preview.redd.it/v8je0dvhms7h1.png?width=1073&format=png&auto=webp&s=cface510c8756cc8d839da820a9fc98b227c152c

At the same time the worst traders have also achieved a massive negative 7 figure PnL while trading in the same window, I guess shorting Elon will never work out:

https://preview.redd.it/hvac8t6nms7h1.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=42a66d04119a7191070110ec39ad72392ee2d470

Thanks for listening to my Ted Talk and happy trading.

Hyperliquid is not only very positive for the broader market and user access but it also established a new value unlock for many businesses and protocols, both old and new.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/builders

We see Phantom, the biggest wallet provider for Solana, offering perps on their platform through Hyperliquid and they rake in $1.5mil per month as an extra to their usual business operations. Meanwhile new protocols like Liquid or Tread[dot]fi were purely unlocked because they built on the infrastructure that Hyperliquid already built with their own spin like better access to mobile, easier UX or algorithmic strategies.

Just in the last 30 days we saw $12.183B routed through the top 10 largest providers to Hyperliquid which isn't even usually visible. There is very clearly product market fit not just for Hyperliquid itself as a trading venue but also as an app layer for businesses to build on Hyperliquid.

We at HyperTracker also see many builders very eager in strengthening their relationship to Hyperliquid users and are very actively checking the builder stats as one of our most visited pages.

Will be an interesting time going forward when businesses start building purely for HIP-3 or HIP-4 as well. Growing metrics across the board underlines the "House of all Finance" mantra that Jeff and HL love to promote.

SpaceX opens on Nasdaq in a few hours. Until it does, the only live SPCX price in the world is the Hyperliquid perp, and right now it's at $174.75. That's about a 30% premium to the $135 IPO price, so onchain is calling a big first-day pop.

The interesting part is who's on each side.

Pulled the positioning off the SPCX perp page on HyperTracker:

https://preview.redd.it/o3tvv5q1ft6h1.png?width=1086&format=png&auto=webp&s=6833c2c83b4bf8142f519eb22f4b5fa4a006c347

Retail is long. Every size bucket from sub-$1k up through $250k-$500k is net long. The most bullish cohort on the whole board is Shrimp.

The size is short. The >$2.5M bucket is $106M of notional and it's net short. The $1M-$2.5M and $500k-$1M buckets lean short too. By behaviour cohort, "Smart Money" is short, while the cohort literally named "Exit Liquidity," 4,746 wallets, is long.

So retail is betting the open rips, and the wallets with the most size are betting this 30% premium bleeds back toward $135.

The squeeze angle: OI is $231M, up $94M in the last 24h, across ~9,900 positions. The liquidation heatmap has a wall of short liquidations stacked from roughly $185 up to $227. If SPCX opens hot, those shorts get force-closed and add fuel on the way up. Right now the biggest winner on the board is a long, a 2x wallet up $923K from a $168.55 entry. The biggest loser is a short, down $572K from $158.53 and sweating its liq.

One of these two sides is about to be very wrong, and unlike every other SpaceX hot take today, this one settles on a live book before the close.

Over/under on $175 for where SPCX actually opens? And if you're in the perp, are you riding with the shrimp or the whales?

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/leaderboards

I want to show you guys that even in the depths of "it's so over" there are people printing almost 8 fig perp PnLs over the last 7 days. If you only listen to Reddit, Twitter, TikTok and other people you might get lost in their pessimism or their skewed view of the market but you are always responsible for your own performance.

So don't lose yourself to other peoples opinions and continue grinding.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/heatmap

Let's have a little look how bullish or bearish the users on Hyperliquid are shall we?

The heatmap is structured for OI and divided by our cohorts. From 🐉 with a size of $5M+ to 🦐 with a size of up to $250. Also our PnL cohorts from 💀 with a negative PnL of -$1M and lower up to our 💰 with a positive PnL of +$1M and up.

We can definitiely see that overall our money printers (💰) are broadly bearish, especially for crypto contracts while we see a few outliers strictly reserved for Oil and Stocks. The same basically applies to our biggest sized players (🐉) that are even more bearish and only lean slightly bullish or bearish on stuff like oil or stocks.
Meanwhile both bad performers (💀) as well as small-sized players (🦐) are quite bullish overall.

Money Printer Perps View

Giga-Rekt Perps View

There really isn't much to say about these two pictures but they tell a very obvious picture. Even after these drawdowns and a potential local bottom these two cohorts are still split.

The Money Printers, defined by having a PnL over $1,000,000, are overly bearish on the entire crypto space and if bullish only on XYZ stocks. Their sentiment is broadly very bearish and most of them are still in profit.

On the other hand we have the "Giga-Rekt" with PnLs of -$1,000,000. They are the exact opposite, bullish crypto and bearish stocks. Most of them are underwater as of right now.

Its also quite funny to see that both cohorts are growing. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

For context, vntl perps let you trade pre-IPO equity on Hyperliquid before a company ever hits a public exchange. Anthropic has one.

Pulled all this data through HyperTracker for those interested.

The numbers

• Price: $1,593.5 (+2.45%)
• Open Interest: $9.06M, up 2.85% in 24h
• 24h Volume: $2.22M, up 581% in 24h
• Funding: +0.0049% (longs paying)
• Whale OI: 60.72%
• 24h Whale Bias: Very Bearish

What is interesting after the announcement: Whales own the majority of open interest but are leaning bearish on the day. Make of that what you will.

Biggest winners right now

The most profitable open position is sitting on $466K profit unrealized, 3x isolated, avg entry $1,166. They've held 22 days. Below that, a few wallets that got in around $500-$600 are up $40-64K with entries that look almost embarrassingly well-timed in hindsight. The more recent longs averaging $1,100-$1,150 are still green but the margin for error is thinner and funding keeps compounding against them.

Another caveat

Long liquidations stack heavily above current price, concentrated between ~$1.88K and $2.07K. Short liq side is almost flat by comparison. Lots of leveraged longs that get uncomfortable if price stalls here.

Interesting market to watch as the IPO narrative develops.