r/hyperliquid1

9.92M HYPE unlocks to core contributors today.
About 1% of supply.
A little over $600M at current price. It's the biggest single line on the July calendar and the whole timeline is pricing it the same way: new supply hits, contributors sell, price bleeds.

The reflex has been wrong most of this year. A few reasons worth sitting with before the panic sets the tone.

Contributors have not been selling. Past unlocks show them restaking the tokens straight back into the protocol to earn fees, which is the opposite of routing them to an exchange. Underneath that, the assistance fund converts around 97% of all protocol fees into open-market HYPE buybacks. 41M+ tokens have already been bought back and burned, roughly 4.2% of supply. That is a structural bid sitting under every single unlock, buying while the timeline panics.

Then there's the actual track record. across the six monthly unlocks in 2026, HYPE fell in the week after january, february and may, and rallied after march, april and june. The average was +4.17% in the seven days following the unlock. The event that everyone treats as a guaranteed dump has, on average, been green a week later.

That's the macro. the part you can't pull from a calendar or a price-prediction article is who is actually positioned into this one right now. so i pulled the cohort bias on HYPE this morning. the profitable wallets are long:

• money printer, smart money, grinder and humble earner cohorts are all leaning long
• most bullish cohort on the board right now is whale
• smart money is the largest by size at $23.9M in open positions, and still long
• even the >$2.5m wallets, the biggest positions on the book, are positioned long

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/perps/HYPE

The one cohort sitting short into the unlock is giga-rekt. 8 wallets, the group that's been liquidated over and over. the wallets with the worst track record on the platform are the ones fading it. That's the company you keep if you short today.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/perps/HYPE

Are most hyperliquid users gamblers ?

Something about copy-trading has bugged me for a while: every leaderboard ranks traders by PnL, but PnL tells you basically nothing about whether *you* could reproduce it. So I spent way too long building a thing to actually measure that.

Pulled the whole Hyperliquid leaderboard (~39k accounts), narrowed to the few thousand that are actually active in a sane size band (no mega-MM/HFT), and scored the ~1,000 that are even mechanically copyable on the stuff that actually eats your returns when you follow someone:

- can the edge survive you filling *late* (copy-lag)?

- does it hold up de-levered to a size you'd really run, or is the return just leverage?

- is there real alpha, or is it levered beta to BTC?

- does it work in more than one market regime?

- repeatable, or one lucky trade carrying the whole record?

Only about 180 made it through — call it 1 in 5. Fewer than 40 I'd call genuinely solid. So ~80%+ of "copyable" HL wallets fall apart once you account for reality.

The wallets that look best are usually winning on something you can't replicate — queue priority, speed, or leverage. (I ran the same test on Polymarket out of curiosity, and it's even worse there: almost none survive, because most of the "profitable" wallets are market-makers sitting on resting orders you can't copy. Different venue, identical trap.) Which is basically the whole problem with "just copy smart money."

Data's here if you want to poke at it (free, read-only, public on-chain data, no signup, I'm not selling signals): https://blacklight.observer — it opens on the Hyperliquid list with the full funnel (screened → copyable → how many actually survive), sorted by realizability. You can filter it, open any wallet's full breakdown, or paste your own address. (Counts drift a bit day to day since it re-runs, but the shape holds.)

Mostly posting because I want people to find holes in it. If a wallet you *know* is good scores low, or some obvious junk scores high, tell me — that's the feedback I actually need. Happy to run any address in the comments.

Last 24h on HL:

• $86.6M liquidated across 4,347 traders
• Shorts: $61.3M. Longs: $25.26M
• Roughly 2.4x more short pain than long pain
• ~305 liquidations an hour, avg size ~$11.8K
• Biggest single hit: a $437K BTC long, wallet 0xd920...f20

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/liquidations

The interesting part is the shape. This wasn't a steady bleed. One candle accounts for most of the $86.6M, a single wave of short liquidations that squeezed price up and carried out everyone leaning the wrong way in a few minutes. The rest of the day was quiet by comparison.

So the setup was: a lot of size stacked short, price ran, stops and liq levels cascaded, and the squeeze fed itself. Classic short crowd getting punished for consensus.

What are you watching for the next one? Feels like there's still size positioned that could go the same way if BTC pushes.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/heatmap

At least we now see a clear change in regime for bullishness/bearishness towards crypto from all cohorts.

Hi,
I’m wondering if there is an option to hedge (keep a simultaneous open long and short position, not reducing)
Can’t find any info, so asking real users might be a good idea, I guess…
Thanks

Made decent money on my trade today. Wdyt?

https://preview.redd.it/8aygaa1notah1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=1db4bba8ee8dcf89b80aa2eb994d0e9b419f95cf

The MiCA transitional period ends today (July 1). Platforms serving EU clients now need a full CASP license or they stop serving them, and it applies based on where the client sits, regardless of where the company is incorporated. Plenty of previously-registered platforms never got authorized, so a chunk are winding down or offboarding EU users this week like Binance and ByBit sending users to their EU subsidy.

Most takes are written for the CEX world. Here's the onchain read.

MiCA regulates centralized service providers, the entities that hold your keys and KYC you. Hyperliquid is a DEX, non-custodial, no one holding your funds. Whether MiCA reaches a fully decentralized protocol with no intermediary is genuinely unsettled, and I won't pretend it's clean. This isn't legal advice and I'm not the one to give it.

But the protocol and the frontend are two separate things, and that's where it gets real. No regulator can switch off the Hyperliquid L1 itself. The smart contracts sit onchain and anyone with a wallet can reach them. The frontend is another matter. app.hyperliquid.xyz is a hosted interface a company operates, and that absolutely can be geofenced or ordered offline in a jurisdiction.

Here's the thing everyone forgets. US and Ontario/Canada users are already banned from that interface. It's IP geofenced, no KYC, and per Similarweb the single biggest slice of Hyperliquid's traffic still comes from the US. People VPN in and trade anyway. The ban has been there the whole time and the platform kept growing straight through it.

That's the pattern worth watching. Tighten the centralized on-ramps and the crypto-native flow just routes onchain instead. Perp trader counts have been climbing the entire time the restrictions got stricter.

https://app.coinmarketman.com/hypertracker/stats

So when the EU squeezes its CEXs this week, the honest question is whether some of that offboarded flow does what the US cohort already does: self-custody, VPN if it has to, trade onchain. Maybe a trickle, maybe real.

And that's checkable instead of a vibe. You can watch net inflows to onchain perps, whether new-wallet activity ticks up in EU hours, whether the cohorts that front-run this stuff are already positioned. If it's real it leaves a footprint. If the footprint isn't there, it was just a story.

Will give screenshots / more data if people are interested

Almost a year ago someone asked a similar question but no answer was presented.

Since it's been a while, i was wondering if anyone can provide some clarity on this matter?

How do you find Hyperliquid's perpetuals charts of BTC, ETH, SOL, etc etc on TradingView?

I've always raw dogged trades on Hyperliquid, but the mobile experience lowkey ain't it, so I started trying one of these builder code apps.

I'm still pretty new to trading, but it's kinda clean so far.

What are you guys using? Any apps I should check out?

https://preview.redd.it/ncrzze0238ah1.png?width=1243&format=png&auto=webp&s=956dcac6f0236452c5b89b8c0ec223aec3f1ab0d

Hello, I'm pretty new to this setup and I'm just using hyperliquid as like my fourth trading stream of income. I'm using a bot. First of all, I haven't decided on hyperagent but very heavily leaning toward that. Can somebody tell me based on experience or ratings that they know what's the best way to start? I'm actually wanting to know what's what's the lowest starting Capital that you think a trading bot on hyperliquid would work with? I'm hoping answers are around a thousand because that's where I wanted to start as just about a thousand. The next part is you know I've done my own research through AI. Just kind of asking and getting reviews and ratings and hyper agent came to the top. Personal experience. Personal sentiment? Or generalized sentiment that you know about... Is there a better bot to use on hyperliquid then hyper agent and anything you can specifically think of to have a good start with $1,000??

Hi there. If I am using a VPN to trade while in USA because I'm visiting and accidentally expose my IP address, what will happen? Does Hyperliquid ban my wallet? What if my funds are staked or in a vault? How do I retrieve them. Do I just sign back on with correct IP address?

Has anyone had any experience with this? This hasn't happened to me but I'm worried that it might and just want a backup plan. Thanks in advance.

Hello guys, I don't want to shill our service as much as I want to highlight one special thing: Building a system around accessible data is very easy if you know what you do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJueofMbUMM&list=PLa-7OXxmxz-OkauNJwcWwrCx6uLjCALkj

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Hello guys, since some months ago I started to be interested in the hyperliquid platform and their HYPE token: I guess in some way that the token could touch 100 dollars within this july 2026: what’s your opinion? Is here some expert about the project ? Is my forecast totally unrealistic or it may be right? Thanks anyone for your attention!