



Long runs - race time recs?
Just wrapped up a 17 mile long run (76 degrees F average temp, 80% humidity) with some 9:45ish pace miles for the last 7.5 miles. Zone 2 for me tops out at ~157 bpm, and zone 3 tops out at high 170s for reference.
Ran just over a 2 hr half a few weeks ago (also in the heat and humidity) as I was just about halfway through my marathon training block for my race in Oct and wanted to do a time trial at a “comfortable” pace a little slower than my target race pace.
I still have about 10 weeks to go before the race - what are the chances that if the weather is 60s and less humid I could break 4 hrs? Ave mpw right now is 35ish, will max out around 50 mpw before taper.