u/snotick

I've been running spreadsheets to determine the benefits of doing a Roth Conversion on approximately $550k in IRAs over the next 14 years.

I've tried to make it as granular as possible, accounting for 4% annual growth in investments, 3.5% annual inflation, an increase of 3% annually with expenses, 2% annual cost of living increase for pension and social security. And determined taxes down to the dollar for state and federal.

When I run each scenario, the results surprised me.

Standard drawdown, where we withdraw only the amount needed to make up annual expense difference, that pension and social security doesn't cover. We don't touch any other investments (roth, brokerage, real estate). At the end of 14 years, the IRA's essentially remain the same. Not a big surprise as pension and SS cover roughly half of annual expenses.

The Roth Conversion drawdown, where we do the same as above, but we also withdraw up to our AGI (to keep us in the 12% bracket) from IRAs every year, until they are depleted. At the end of 14 years, we have withdrawn more vs the Standard scenario, but that's to be expected.

Where the surprise happens is when you extrapolate years 15 through 40. When RMDs start at age 75, and taxes start to ramp up. With the Standard drawdown, we hit zero at age 100. With the Conversion scenario, we have over $1million left at age 100. We would be paying an extra $42k in taxes over that time period, and the net difference in balance is $79k less at the end of 14 years.

I understand that taxes today, may not be taxes in 15 years (even taxes 10 years ago were different from today's). And I realize that tax brackets may change, but I only see them increasing. So, the funding of the Roth account could happen sooner than 14 years.

I've heard that Roth conversions are the way to go, but it's hard to see the true effects unless you drill down and see the numbers. Unless, I missed something and my spreadsheet is FUBAR. We are planning to meet with a flat fee fiduciary in the near future.

Can these numbers be true? Anything I might be missing?

One of today's challenges is to harvest 2 ducks with a shotgun and hit the heart. I've been playing for the last 3 hours and shot dozens of ducks, still no heart.

I've tried both the 10g and 12 gauge. I have the sighting distance set to 82 yards to get the smallest pattern at close range. I've set up ground blinds and stands to get me very close.

I've shot a mallard at 4 yards with the 10 gauge and didn't hit the heart. I've tried broadside, front, back, top, I can't seem to get to the heart for one, much less 2 ducks. Is this just a pure luck thing? I would think a 10 gauge load from 4 yards would penetrate completely through.

EDIT: I gave up after about 7 hours of shooting nothing but ducks. I don't think it's possible to harvest 2 ducks with a shotgun AND a heart shot within a 24 hour period.

EDIT 2: First thing I did this morning was to shoot a few more ducks. My first duck shot today was 10 yards with the 10 gauge. It hit the heart. Luck? Coincidence? Who knows.