Pick 5
I figured I'd post my full nuffie trade delusions so that in the off chance I get something right I get to look like a prophet. Essentially, here is the route I envision for us to end up receiving pick 5 in this year's draft, without giving up pick 1. I personally think every deal I list below is pretty fair, but I'm curious to see how others see this.
Firstly, small shoutout to the Bring Back the Red and Black YouTube channel, since this is largely plagiarising their proposed trades, but with a few twists and rebalances that make it more realistic in my eyes. This post will cover 4 distinct trades, with 2 major assumptions. First of all, I am assuming that Port Adelaide will let Butters walk in free agency, and gain pick 5 as compensation. Secondly, I am assuming that Port Adelaide somehow get Western Bulldogs' pick 13, through a totally 'legitimate' side deal with absolutely no fuckery whatsoever. I will say that Port having the Bulldogs' pick isn't an absolute necessity to get pick 5, but it does make it harder to equalise things. I haven't factored in any potential free agency compensation for Ben King, but the numbers don't really change much or make the trades more or less fair.
Trade 1 with Geelong:
Essendon give: Ridley, Pick 20
Geelong give: Pick 15, 2027 F1
This trade is basically a slightly improved offer from Geelong's original F1 offer. We move up the order by about 5 spots, but after all Cochrane and Walker bids are matched, the gap between the 2 2026 picks shrinks to just 3 spots. If necessary, we can probably add something like a F3 involved to sweeten the deal. Notably, this deal does not contain Jack Bowes, who we will acquire later on.
Trade 2 with Hawthorn:
Essendon give: Merrett
Hawthorn give: 16, 26, 2027 F2
While I'd love to get a player involved in the Hawthorn deal or a future 1st instead of a future 2nd, I think this is roughly where the deal will end up. Perhaps there will be a bit of haggling, but for the purpose of this post at least, I am assuming the centrepieces of 16 & 26 are probably safe bets.
Trade 3: 3 club Megatrade with Port Adelaide and Carlton
Essendon give: 15, 16, 26, 2027 F2 (tied to Essendon)
Essendon receive: 5, 25, 45, 47
Port Adelaide give: 5, 13, 45, 47
Port Adelaide receive: 15, 16, 17, 26
Carlton give: 17, 25
Carlton receive: 13, 2027 F2 (tied to Essendon)
This is the trade that should allow us get access to pick 5. In terms of points, after projecting our F2 being worth approximately 405 points (around pick 32 due to Tassie picks and any other compensation picks), both Port Adelaide and Carlton end up profiting by around 100ish points. Port Adelaide is essentially sliding back about 2 places in the draft (compared to the compensation pick they'd receive for matching with 4 & 5), and in exchange getting another 2nd rounder they could use to push up the order on draft night. Notably, since their pick 13 is going to Carlton and Port are getting Carlton's pick 17 back, after matching for Cochrane, Port ends up in the exact same positions in the draft's first round as if they hadn't done the 13 for 17 swap. In essence, the swap is only sacrificing a mid-late 40's picks that they probably wouldn't be able to use given how stacked their draft hand would end up.
Conversely, Carlton are getting points in to make matching for Walker easier (still 74 points of deficit if the King compensation pick actually happens or about 20ish points surplus if there isn't compensation). Finally, we get back a 2nd rounder for this year to go alongside the compensation pick as well as some crucial 3rd rounders. It's not ideal to lose a good 2nd rounder in the 2027 draft, but we still end up with 2 firsts and a 2nd to match bids with next year, and we might be one of the more active teams trying to trade back in to next year's draft. We should almost certainly still get Bewick, and getting Rodan and/or Darwish are probably not impossible.
Trade 4: Essendon and Geelong
Essendon give: pick 45
Geelong give: Bowes
This is a simple trade that should probably satisfy both clubs.
Where this would leave us:
If we assume that there is in fact compensation for King, our total draft hands for 2026 and 2027, after Walker and Cochrane bid matches would be:
Players In: Bowes
Players Out: Merrett, Ridley
2026 Draft: 2, 6, 20, 28, 51, 65 (with 51 likely being used to match for Justice)
2027 Draft: 1st, 1st (Geelong), 2nd (Hawthorn), 3rd, 4th
Is this something you would like to see Essendon do? Does this seem fair for all parties?