u/spizcraft

Every summer there are dozens of posts asking if there is smoke outside. There are lots of maps and forecasts online, but my personal favorite is one called Colorado Smoke Forecast created by a group called BoulderCast:

https://bouldercast.com/colorado-smoke-forecast/

Best of all, it is available as a gif which makes viewing on mobile a breeze:

https://www.bouldercast.com/models/all/HRR\_CO\_TOTSMK\_XGIF.gif

This gives a 24 hour forecast of smoke in the state of Colorado based on an NOAA model. IMO it is the most accurate and legible smoke forecast I’m aware of. I find it FAR easier to visualize than other forecasts like AirNow Fire and Smoke Map, compare for reference:

https://fire.airnow.gov

So next time you’re wondering if it’s just cloudy or there’s smoke outside, or what it will be like in 24 hours, just check the gif.

2024 (BPM, WS/48, EPM)
JM: -1.4, -.012, -4.2
KCP: -1.4, .067, -1.2
(CB: -2.2, .076, -2.6)
MPJ: 0.6, .081, -1.8
AG: 4.5, .175, 0.3
NJ: 12.8, .259, 6.4

2025 (BPM, WS/48, EPM)
JM: 2.1, .065, 0.3
CB: 1.0, .086, 0.5
MPJ: -2.2, .025, -4.0
AG: 2.2, .116, 1.8
NJ: 10.7, .181, 4.1

2026 (BPM, WS/48, EPM)
JM: -0.8, .011, TBD
CB: -1.0, .062, TBD
CJ: 0.9, .089, TBD
AG: -2.1, .047, TBD
NJ: 8.0, .136, TBD

When paired with the eye test, what does any of this mean? Nothing we don’t already know. Jokic carries this team every year. He’s starting to lose a step and, more concerningly, he’s lost his 3pt touch (just 30% from 3P since the championship).

Jokic’s best teammate is often Gordon. Gordon’s impact on both sides of the court, but especially defense, is wide-ranging and impossible to replicate from anyone else. He brings the ball up court to help Murray rest, he draws fouls bullying his way to the rim, and he is our most versatile defender that can make small-ball lineups successful.

Murray has, frankly, been extremely disappointing in the playoffs since the championship. Not only has he been unable to get into a rhythm offensively, he’s a traffic cone on defense and a major liability at the POA. A few good shooting nights don’t outweigh a major source of blame for failure.

Moving away from KCP and MPJ was the right call. But pivoting to CB was a mistake. Right now, in his scared, shrunken state, he offers nothing a replacement level player can’t do. His defense is decent at best, but it’s not the kind we need paired with Murray. KCP was a true, screen-navigating, guard defender that helped mask Murray’s flaws. Braun is not that. With him offering almost nothing on offense at the moment, he is a terrible fit for the starting lineup. His contract is a major, nearly insurmountable obstacle in fixing this team.

Cam, IMO, ended up being pretty close to what was expected at the time of the trade. What he lacks in size and rebounding he makes up for in creation and defense. It took a long time for him to gel, but he was ready when it mattered.

I won’t entertain how this team is fixed. My impression is that it was built to win now and the FO has almost no assets or ammunition left. We bet on these guys and they were all injured or underperformed when it mattered. The construction makes sense on paper, but the biggest problems for this team in the remainder of the Jokic era are:

Murray is a terrible defender

Braun does not complement Murray on defense, and looks like a terrible investment right now

AG, although extremely important, cannot stay healthy even when load managed

The fact that all of them are overpaid, and there are no bright up and comers on this team except Watson who is a RFA, in the twilight of Jokic’s prime, makes me very pessimistic about this working out. It very much feels like we will be in the Bucks situation in a year or two.