u/starfire10K

We just bought a house with 19kw Solar and Sungrow 15kw 3P invertor (SH15T). Now I would like a battery.

Has anyone purchased or quoted Sungrow battery during last 6-12 months?

Can anyone recommend a reasonably priced plumber? We are at Carrara

Over the last 30 years, house prices have grown at roughly 6.4% to 7.0% annually, vastly outpacing nominal wages (3.0% to 3.5%) and inflation (2.5% to 2.7%). This has pushed new mortgage servicing costs in big cities to between 40% and 50% of a typical dual-income household’s pay. If this trend continues in one decade, servicing a basic home loan will devour 60% to 65% of income, completely crushing discretionary spending. In two decades, it reaches an impossible 80% to 85%, forcing the absolute collapse of individual homeownership in favor of corporate landlords and permanent multi-generational living.

I have a sneaking suspicion the government grand plan was strategic coordination....The government’s decision to limit negative gearing to new builds and replace the 50% CGT discount with indexation—right alongside sharp RBA interest rate hikes—is not a dark conspiracy. It is deliberate, treasury modeled economic self-defense to avoid that exact 20-year collapse.

Treasury modeling would have fully anticipated that this coordinated pincer movement would soften property prices (as seen in Sydney's recent May 0.9% monthly drop). However, because the average voter equates falling property prices with a loss of personal wealth, the government could never explicitly state, "our policy is to lower your house value." Instead, they wrapped the policy in political spin like "fairer tax systems" and "grandfathered existing assets" to maintain political cover and prevent a panic sell-off. It is calculated engineering: using tax reform to choke out established property speculation, flatten runaway prices, and give ordinary wages a multi-year window to finally catch up.

Classic never let a good crisis go to waste manoeuvre.

Brave gamble?

We now have a perfect storm for Australian property:

1. War causing high oil prices = high inflation = higher mortgage rates. Embedded inflation death spiral
2. Budget disincentives. Investors to flee, many will offload prior to July 2027. 40% of buyers are investors
3. Record high debt
4. 10% mortgage affordability ceilng irrespective of low supply. To get new home loan the borrower has to prove to bank they can service 10% mortgage (7% + 3% APRA buffer)
5. Construction insolvency wave
6. Wealth effect reversal
7. Cost of living crisis
8. Per capita recession
9. AI retrenchments
10. Consumer and business confidence at 50 year low

Cotality 5-city aggregate index recorded 0% growth over the past 28 day:

https://preview.redd.it/ocjffk0ys12h1.jpg?width=699&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=34f1e000acc1102bc2e838f762f583073470024b

Perth is still doing very well, in late February the 28-day rolling growth rate peaked at a massive 2.5%, yet monthly growth pace is losing steam at a rate of roughly 0.32% per month (a total drop of 0.8% over 2.5 months). Extrapolating linear deceleration speed of 0.32% per month Perth is on track to hit 0% growth by October. Yet loss of confidence is never linear. While a straight mathematical line points to late October for Perth to hit zero growth, market psychology moves much faster. Real estate shifts like a cliff, not a smooth slope. The moment buyers notice rising stock and decline in sales prices, fear of missing out instantly turns into fear of overpaying. If interstate investors pull back and local buyers hit their lending limits simultaneously, confidence will collapse. This psychological domino effect could easily bring Perth's market standstill forward to July or August. By August all Australian property could be in decline due to the perfect storm.

Treasury modelling suggest underlying inflation is projected to remain sticky above 3% until second half of 2027 and estimate rates will remain high, as such I do not expect property to start next growth cycle until late 2027 or early 2028.

Buckle up, the next twelve months are going to be a bumpy ride.