AAO Season 15 Ranked Play Stats
Julius from Beamdog posted the stats for last season on the Steam community forum.
Season Fifteen Stats:
Total Ranked Games: 129091 (51 games per player, 707 games completed per day)
Axis wins: 70011 (54.2%)
Allies wins: 59080
The longest-running ranked game of the season (rounds): 116 rounds
The average rounds of the ranked games: 6.15
Total number of ranked players: 5077
Total number of ranked Axis players: 3923
Total number of ranked Allies players: 4066
Wood Axis players: 361
Bronze Axis players: 1081
Silver Axis players: 1477
Gold Axis players: 803
Platinum Axis players: 264
Wood Allies players: 456
Bronze Allies players: 1191
Silver Allies players: 1497
Gold Allies players: 716
Platinum Allies players: 206
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I've compiled the stats for every season that they've posted, which goes back to season 6 for total games and players, and goes back to season 11 for ranking level separated by faction. (for seasons 10 and earlier, they seem to have given every player a rank for both factions even if they only played as one faction, so there are a lot of "ghosts" in the Wood ranks) So here is a nerd data dump and light analysis of that.
S15: 5077 players, 129091 games, avg 51 games played, Axis win 54.2%
S14: 4983 players, 127225 games, avg 51 games played, Axis win 54.5%
S13: 4977 players, 115143 games, avg 46 games played, Axis win 54.4%
S12: 5097 players, 123023 games, avg 48 games played, Axis win 54.2%
S11: 5291 players, 133128 games, avg 50 games played, Axis win 54.1%
S10: 4862 players, 113939 games, avg 47 games played, Axis win 54.4%
S09: 3981 players, 98742 games, avg 50 games played, Axis win 54.1%
S08: 4144 players, 102105 games, avg 49 games played, Axis win 53.8%
S07: 4334 players, 106387 games, avg 49 games played, Axis win 54.1%
S06: 4128 players, 109562 games, avg 53 games played, Axis win 53.2%
From Seasons 6-9, the game had an average ranked player population of 4150 per season, with the average player completing 50 games per season. Seasons 10-15 have averaged 5050 ranked players per season, with the average player still completing 50 games per season. Board Game Nation's Youtube series on the 2023 World Championships, which got a quarter of a million views, is credited for bringing in almost 1000 new players. (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLMu2lpi84ZaiUkC5v19Rp1Rr2s3_P1V4l)
During all of this, the Axis win rate has hovered around 54.3% per season. The last time this number fell outside of 54.1-54.5% was season 8.
Beamdog has only posted fully faction-separated ranking data (taking into account that some players only play as one side and not giving them a ranking for the side they don't play) since season 11. Over these 5 seasons, the average breakdown by side has been:
Axis-only players: 19%
Allies-only players: 22%
Dual players: 59%
Wood Axis: 8.6%
Bronze Axis: 25.1%
Silver Axis: 38.8%
Gold Axis: 21.1%
Platinum Axis: 6.8%
Wood Allies: 11.0%
Bronze Allies: 28.8%
Silver Allies: 36.9%
Gold Allies: 17.8%
Platinum Allies: 5.5%
It would be a little bulky to paste here, but these percentages hardly changed at all from one season to the next. Season 15, which had the third-highest number of players from any posted season, had the second-largest percent of W/B Allies and the largest percent of W/B Axis, suggesting the small (2%) increase in players this season might represent actual new players joining.
Using the assumptions of a standard chess Elo system with normal distribution, mean 1500 and standard deviation 200, these player distributions imply:
Axis
Wood/Bronze Cutoff: 1227
Bronze/Silver Cutoff: 1416
Silver/Gold Cutoff: 1619
Gold/Platinum Cutoff: 1804
Allies
Wood/Bronze Cutoff: 1254
Bronze/Silver Cutoff: 1448
Silver/Gold Cutoff: 1646
Gold/Platinum Cutoff: 1819
These numbers were consistent across the 5 seasons. I would bet that the real cutoffs in the game's code are 1200/1400/1600/1800, and that the implied difference is due to points decay from inactivity (confirmed to be part of their Elo/MMR system) and unequal winrates between the sides. Unsurprisingly, inactivity seems higher at lower levels. Allies implied cutoffs are "higher" due to the Axis winning the majority of games... the game code likely has the same cutoffs for both, but they're slightly harder to reach as Allies.