u/taboo__time

In regard to the recent Plain English fertility podcast posted here.

I do not support pro family ultra conservatism but I'm looking at the default conclusion.

If you look at the US history the 19th century all kinds of wild religious movements started. Some from people moving from Europe. Two examples are the Mormons and the Shakers.

The Mormons were started by a person who believed in having very large families.

The Shakers believed sex was a sin.

The Mormons now dominate Utah and the Shakers are extinct. The difference was cultural. In all the talk of fertility it seems the high disparity between cultures was missed. The only cultures inside industrial nations with positive repro rates are the ultra religious conservatives. They have the desire and plan to keep reproduction high. Any time a religion or sect liberalises it heads into negative reproduction rates. Whatever the religion.

Yes people convert from ultra conservative identities but culture is mostly inherited. Ultras are focused on raising the children without liberal influences.

The logical conclusion of this is a world, I mean globally dominated by ultra religious identities.

Gilead by default. Little room for liberalism.

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Lots of cultures have a negative repro. But ONLY pro family ultra conservative cultures have a positive repro.

Even if they decline they still outcompete over time as their rates fall a slower rate.

A culture has to have people in their 20s meeting and reproducing. Otherwise it is too late for that culture.

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The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Think

Plain English podcast with Derek Thompson

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I'm in the UK but here's the US stats.

The Future Of American Religion: Birth Rates Show Who's Having More Kids

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More stats

Fertility status among US groups

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/religion-fertility-and-child-rearing/pr_2025-02-26_religious-landscape-study_06-03/

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/religion-fertility-and-child-rearing/