u/the_twig_131

Standard deviation of two dependant dice rolls

I have two dice, a d4 and a d6.

I first roll the d4. If I roll more than 2, I roll the d6 and note the result as my score. If I roll 2 or less, my score is 0.

I know that I can manually calculate the standard deviation by just writing out the score for all 24 possible results (12 * 0, 2 * [1..6]) and putting that into the standard deviation formula. That comes out to 2.126.

What I'm actually trying to do however is find a generalised formula that calculates the standard deviation of the score when rolling 1dx if 1dy is greater than z.

Going back to my d4 and d6, I know that the standard deviation of a d6 is 1.708, and I have a 50% chance that I roll the d6, or a 50% chance that I score 0. Is there a formula that I can use to get from those values to the 2.126?

To make it even more complicated, the next step is that if I roll a 4 on the d4, I actually roll 2d6. 50% chance to score 0, 25% chance to score 1d6, 25% chance to score 2d6. That gives me a standard deviation of 3.257. Is there a formula I could use to calculate this as well?

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u/the_twig_131 — 3 days ago

I put together this team a couple of days ago, and oh my god is it consistent at baiting in the Arch/Sableye lead then completely wiping the floor with it T2.

Aerodactyl is Dual Wingbeat/Tailwind/Sunny Day/Wide Guard with a Focus Sash, and Charizard is a fairly standard set (but with Solar Power in base form).

T1 is typically Dual Wingbeat into Sableye and Protect Charizard without a mega, then T2 is Sunny Day and Mega Heat Wave.

Doesn't really matter what the opponent does, Sableye is going down and Arch is taking a good 60% and probably getting locked into an Electroshot charge turn. The only way Sableye survives is if it either uses Reflect T1 and Light Screen T2, or Light Screen and has some exceptionally good special bulk.

Team ID: L85EVKUEGS

u/the_twig_131 — 2 months ago