Expenditure keeps dropping despite ~1,400 calories/day and regular activity — what am I missing?
53F, 5’7”, currently ~140–141 lb. I’ve been trying to lose weight for quite a while and recently started using MacroFactor.
My 30-day average intake is 1,393 calories, while MF’s estimated expenditure has fallen from about 1,600 to under 1,500. My trend weight is essentially flat/slightly increasing (+0.4 lb over 30 days), and MF now estimates a 159-cal/day surplus and has dropped my coached target to 1,184 calories.
Activity-wise, I’m averaging ~7,700 steps/day, strength training 2x/week, doing yoga several times/week, and generally exceeding 150 intensity minutes/week.
I understand why the algorithm is lowering my calories based on the data it’s seeing. What I don’t understand is why my apparent expenditure is this low, or whether there is something about the data/short observation period that could be misleading the expenditure estimate.
I don’t want to respond by continually restricting below 1,200 calories. For experienced MF users: would you hold calories steady longer and let the expenditure estimate settle, change the goal rate, increase activity, or investigate something else?
I also recently had labs showing mild/subclinical hypothyroidism (elevated TSH with normal free thyroid hormones); repeat testing has been reassuring/normal, and I’m following this with my doctor.
Screenshots attached with weight trend/change, expenditure, current goal, and calorie intake.
ADDED: Thank you — I’m going to tighten up my logging by weighing food and also keep increasing activity.
For context, I’ve been logging food for about 2 years and strength training consistently for 1 year. I’m also working on keeping my steps consistently above 8k/day, and this month I added 20-minute cardio sessions on days I’m not strength training or doing yoga.
What feels different this time is that I’ve cut successfully in the past by reducing calories and increasing activity, but my energy levels have never felt this low.