There has been much discourse on the performance of the draft picks of Adam Peters and it sparked my curiosity to put some numbers alongside the discussion.

As you will see below, the 2024 and 2025 draft picks for the Commanders have delivered surplus value on the field, both aggregated and relative to their draft positions.  This doesn’t mean that there haven’t been misses (Ben Sinnott), but it does mean on the whole, commanders draft picks have played and produced more than their contemporaries.

I could do a whole post on the methodology used (check out the link in the comments for more details), but the brief version is that I use pro football reference’s Approximate Value to measure on field production and fit a curve based on pick number, position and years since drafted to estimate how much Approximate Value that combination will generate. Then I compare the residuals to infer performance, a player that has a positive residual (actual-estimate) has a performance that exceeds their draft position (e.g. Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who finished 23rd in the league in rushing yards from pick 245) and someone with a negative number (e.g. Dominique Hampton, who delivered 0 AV) has underperformed their draft position.

First, the Commanders had disastrous classes in 2022 and 2023 under Ron Rivera. Combined, the Commanders come in 31st of 32 teams.

https://preview.redd.it/f27wdf7dihkh1.png?width=1522&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf1d03c3ff8f3c194566c7af21e9fb0744567184

However, the metric completely flips over 2024 and 2025 draft classes under Peters, with the Commanders 4th of 32 teams.

https://preview.redd.it/esgiuf7dihkh1.png?width=1522&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d21ae51560e8f764e8004142f70a4551999d81b

Here is a look at each player’s performance, segmented by the two regimes. You can check out the link in the comments to filter and sort for yourself.

https://preview.redd.it/pi2ngjnojhkh1.png?width=1532&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc3bb64440cf3b8aa4d2a99b47ca42a62c2eafdc

https://preview.redd.it/mp2fle7dihkh1.png?width=1526&format=png&auto=webp&s=25f539747582a321c20de574a43e7bf49f545130

AV has some limitations, and therefore I think it's wise to use caution around claiming too much on the back of it, particularly at the individual player level, but I think it's directionally accurate enough for light inference on the team level aggregation. Also, I don’t believe the correct interpretation of these results is to say the commanders are now awesome at drafting, more like the first two classes are off to a good start.

One last thing that I notice in the data is something that I think is really clever by the Commanders front office is what they’ve done with waivers and free agency for players from the 2022 draft class. While the Commanders didn’t get a lot of their own 2022 draft class, they’ve signed a relatively big collection of productive players from that class:

Player (2022 class rank by AV):
Rachaad White (26)
Leo Chenal (50)
Chig Okonkwo (71)
Nick Cross (75)
Nicholas Petit-Frere (100)
Jerome Ford (102)
Treylon Burks (128)
Drake Jackson (153)

Some of these guys are genuine training camp lottery tickets, but Peters saw the market and went and bought four of the top 75 most productive players from the class to fill the gap left by the previous regime.

Previous Season Recap

Coming off a surprising final four appearance in 2024, the Commanders faced a more difficult schedule in 2025, bringing back an aging roster full of free-agent mercenaries on 1-year deals and investment at both tackle positions (Laremy Tunsil, 2025 1st-rounder Josh Conerly) to protect the franchise in Jayden Daniels.

It was a turbulent offseason for the team and fan favorite Terry McLaurin, as the two locked into a stalemate over a contract extension - which in the end led to both parties losing. McLaurin missed most of camp and the ramp required to avoid injury, then promptly missed chunks of the season with a muscle injury. The Commanders lacked a credible threat to run X & Z routes, and the offense struggled mightily without his verticality, ability to get open, and ability to make tough catches. Daniels got hurt twice and missed chunks of the season himself - which, given the struggles on defense and lack of offensive playmakers, was disastrous.

The defensive line also got hammered with injuries, particularly at edge, with the team forced to give significant minutes to 3rd and 4th string options at the critical position. Peters and Quinn want their defense to be fast, violent and turnover-creating, and it was basically none of those things. Super-leader Bobby Wagner was a liability in coverage and has lost his range in the perimeter run game. Frankie Luvu took a step back, had a bad year for tackling, and struggled playing more full-time at edge due to injuries. The added disaster: miscommunication in the secondary resulting in huge splash plays for the opposition.

The offense and defense struggled to complement each other. Despite a porous defense and injured stars, OC Kliff Kingsbury resisted attempts to shorten games via ball control and running under center - too far away from his preferred system of no-huddle spread from the gun. In many ways, the poor season was needed to hit reset and start getting younger, faster, and deeper if the team wants to maximize the window with Daniels. Kingsbury is out, replaced by David Blough at OC. Joe Whitt Jr. is out at DC, replaced by Daronte Jones. The coordinator changes were the harbinger for bigger changes across the board.

Team Needs

The team is in better shape on the offensive side, with QB, both tackles, and a star WR in place. The big need is playmakers at WR opposite McLaurin: players who can stretch the field, get separation in the slot, and physical receivers who can make contested catches on the outside. Odds are someone steps up to fill one of those roles in Burks, Brown, McCaffrey, or Lane, but it would be good to add another contestant. LG and OC are replacement-level - someone to compete and provide depth would be welcome. There's also a need for a back who can win in short yardage and bring a bit of power to a speedy and slick top two of Rachaad White and Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

On defense, it's a bit ambiguous how the scheme will lay out under Daronte Jones, but talent is needed at all three levels. A three-down LB with range, a pass rusher on the edge, and an outside corner are the biggest opportunities to add impact to this year's team. Additionally, with the misses during the Rivera draft regime, the team really lacks depth in the squad and is missing the 3-6 year pros so vital to building resiliency through the year and making key contributions on special teams.

Draft

1.7 - Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

Great value. Styles was #2 on the consensus board going into the draft, and having him fall to #7 isn't just value, it's a gift. Exactly the fit needed in the middle of the defense: cornerstone type of player to build around. Styles is the Commanders' type: big, fast, physical, team captain, leader, and son of former NFL LB Lorenzo Styles Sr.

The athletic profile reads like it was made in a lab to play LB. 6'5", 244 lbs, 4.46 40, 43.5" vertical (the highest by an off-ball LB at the combine since 2003, and second-highest by any LB in that span behind Cameron Wake), 11'2" broad jump. Overall RAS of 9.99, ranking him among the top LBs ever measured at the combine. Production matched the testing: First-Team All-American and All-Big Ten in 2025, 183 tackles over his final two seasons after transitioning from safety to LB in spring 2024. PFF tackling grade of 92.2 was the best in FBS, and he was the only defensive player with 50+ tackles to register a zero missed-tackle rate.

The Fred Warner comparison has gained steam through the draft process, and the testing reinforces it - Warner came out a hybrid LB with coverage chops and frame questions; Styles brings more size and length with even more explosive athletic upside. The two years at safety give him a unique perspective on coverage and how the whole scheme operates - exactly the type of asset for a defense that lacked sideline-to-sideline range and gave up too many splash plays to miscommunication in 2025.

Worth zooming in on the Caleb Downs decision. The Chiefs traded up to 6 for CB Mansoor Delane, which took Delane off the board ahead of Washington but left both Styles AND his Ohio State teammate Downs (the consensus top safety) on the board at 7. Going Styles signals what Peters and Daronte Jones value most: a true three-down LB who can call the defense, cover sideline-to-sideline, and rush the passer is harder to find than a safety. Peters admitted he didn't expect Styles to fall and praised his short-area quickness as making him "an excellent blitzer." Dan Quinn said he can't wait to coach him and floated the green dot as a rookie - rare for a #7 overall to walk in calling the defense, and the most direct possible answer to the Wagner question.

Styles immediately addresses the biggest gap in the defense: a true MIKE with the range, tackling reliability, and coverage acumen to anchor the middle. Cornerstone you build a defense around.

3.71 - Antonio Williams, WR, Clemson

Good value here. #56 on the consensus board at pick 71 - 15 picks of value. Needed another guy with the chance to develop. A great route runner who can get open and catch the ball - both things that were a struggle for the team last year. Perhaps not as explosive as the Commanders' typical profile at WR, he has above-average athleticism (8.55 RAS for Williams vs 9.58 for Jaylin Lane and 9.44 for Luke McCaffrey).

Played a role at Clemson all four years, finishing with 192 catches for 2,184 yards and 21 TDs. A strong junior year (70-858-11) had him in the conversation to be WR1 before the 2025 season, but injuries and a slumping Clemson team saw a dip in the box score numbers. However, the advanced analytics showed improvement (drop rate down to 1.8%, increase to 5.8 yards after catch). Additionally, he showed straight-line development each year in PFF grade: 69 as a freshman, 73 as a sophomore, 75 as a junior, and 80 as a senior - the profile of a player who keeps investing in his development and growing.

Should compete for playing time right away in the slot and perhaps for snaps on the outside opposite Scary Terry.

5.147 - Joshua Josephs, EDGE, Tennessee

Great value here - #99 on the consensus board at pick 147, making him the biggest steal of the class in pure board-rank terms (48 spots of value). His length disrupts - an incredible 83 7/8" wingspan, and he has been effective using it. A 38.5" vertical puts him in the 85th percentile for explosion. By conventional numbers (6'3", 242) he's small for an edge and needs to develop - likely needs to add 15 lbs to handle NFL run defense. Despite the explosive vertical, he has just average 10 and 40-yard times - his game is length and burst, not pure speed.

Career production at Tennessee: 104 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 8 PBUs across four years, with two years as a starter and a team-leading three forced fumbles in 2024. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein called him a "long, upright edge defender with an NBA-caliber wingspan and room to continue filling out his frame." That's the developmental bet here. This is exactly the type of player Washington needs to be drafting and developing, given the depth issues at edge in 2025. Given his length and explosion, he should see meaningful rotational snaps as a rookie.

6.187 - Kaytron Allen, RB, Penn State

Great value here. Ranked #132 on the consensus board, picked at 187 - 55 spots of board-rank value, the second-biggest steal of the class. The all-time leading rusher in Penn State history, with four productive years and his best statistically in 2025: 1,303 yards on 6.3 ypa. He had 30 rushes of 10+ yards in 2025 (32nd out of 410 in NCAA), 3.8 yards after contact, and 57 forced missed tackles (18th in NCAA). We don't have his running times - he's not a burner. At 5'11", 217, he's thick but not built like a bruiser - in some ways he doesn't fit the typical athletic profile for Adam Peters, but a team captain and beloved member of the Penn State community speaks to the leadership and team fit Peters explicitly values.

Allen directly addresses the short-yardage and power need behind Rachaad White and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. He won't have to win a touchdown role - just provide the physical complement those two lack.

6.209 - Matt Gulbin, OC, Michigan State

Fair value. Board had him at #206 and he went at 209 - market price, not the bargains the rest of the class were. Gulbin still has a real chance to make the roster as a developmental center with the ability to flex to guard. At 6'4", 312 he has average size for the position, but he is a bit atypical of an Adam Peters pick - below-average athleticism (3.46 RAS, 57 NGS Athleticism Score). However, he's experienced: four years at Wake Forest plus a final season at Michigan State where PFF graded him as the #2 center in 2025. Team captain for MSU in his final season. With Biadasz gone and the Linderbaum miss, the center spot is wide open. Gulbin walks into a real competition with Nick Allegretti for the job.

7.223 - Athan Kaliakmanis, QB, Rutgers

Reach as advertised - #280 on the consensus board at pick 223. But when picking a QB at 223 the goal is usually to find a player who can add to the QB room in intangible ways and show enough growth potential to stick as a backup over the next few years. He has 8,284 passing yards over four seasons at Minnesota and then Rutgers. His last season was by far his best: 3,123 passing yards, 20 TD, 7 INT, 62% completion, and 14th in the country with 26 Big Time Throws per PFF. He showed significant growth year-over-year with 660 more passing yards and a 7% jump in completion percentage. Another team captain in 2025. Marcus Mariota is back as Daniels' veteran backup, so Kaliakmanis competes with Sam Hartman for the emergency QB spot and a developmental track.

UDFA

Eight UDFA signings reported, with a couple of legitimate roster contenders in the group:

• Robert Henry Jr. (RB, UTSA) - #294 on the consensus board. 2,300+ rushing yards and 27 TDs at UTSA. "Slasher with a wiggly lower half" per NFL.com. Crowded RB room, but explosive enough to fight for a practice squad spot.
• Chris Hilton Jr. (WR, LSU) - #285 on the consensus board. 4.41 speed, vertical-threat profile with five of six career TDs coming on plays of 40+ yards.
• Jeffrey M'Ba (DL) - 27-year-old developmental NT with intriguing power.
• Fred Davis II (CB, Northwestern) - Fluid mover with length and downfield coverage feel.
• Malik Spencer (S, Michigan State) - Projected Day 3 pick, three-year starter with 52 tackles, 5 PBUs, and 2 sacks in 2025.
• Drew Stevens (K, Iowa) - 76 career FGs, 12 from 50+, four-time All-Big Ten. The most interesting UDFA - signed off the rookie minicamp invite list, suggesting real competition for the kicking job.
• Jaden Bradley (WR, UNLV) - 6'4", 195, 23 years old. Length profile is rare in the room.
• Tanoa Togiai (OL, Utah) - $140K total guaranteed, the highest UDFA money the team allocated, signaling real interest.

Final Thoughts

Overall, this is an A draft for the Commanders. Probably a D on managing draft capital over the previous two years - the Tunsil trade alone cost a 2nd and 4th this year, and the cumulative effect was that Washington entered the weekend with the 26th-most pick capital in the league. But they executed really well with what they had: ended the weekend with the 18th-most asset value on the consensus pundit board - one of the biggest positive deltas in the NFL.

The top pick, Styles, will be a cornerstone of the defense for years to come. They managed to get value at every other slot and add players with realistic chances to contribute - only Kaliakmanis of the draftees seems destined for the practice squad. The class hits the three biggest defensive needs (three-down LB, edge, plus added length on the back end via UDFA), takes a real swing at the WR2 question, addresses the power-back gap behind White and Croskey-Merritt, and gives the OL room a real center competition.

After a season of being old, slow, and brittle, the floor is up. Now we need to see Blough open the playbook for Daniels and Daronte Jones get this defense to play fast.