What could happen if Tesla and SpaceX merged? (From a Tesla investor's perspective)
I've been thinking about this for a while, but I don't really understand how mergers like this work.
On paper, I'm not very excited about the idea of Tesla merging with SpaceX. One reason is that SpaceX's valuation looks pretty stretched to me (although you could say the same about Tesla to some extent). The difference is that I have more confidence in where Tesla is heading with robots, robotaxis, etc., and I can see a scenario where the current valuation is eventually justified.
Another concern is that SpaceX now includes xAI. Personally, I see xAI as a huge money and resource sink, and I'm not even sure it will ever generate meaningful economic returns, even in the long term given the level of competition.
My biggest question is: how would a merger actually work for Tesla shareholders?
My main fear is dilution. If Tesla merged with SpaceX, is there a scenario where Tesla investors end up owning a smaller piece of the combined company than expected?
And let's say, hypothetically, that SpaceX offered to buy Tesla at $600 per share as part of the deal. If some shareholders didn't agree with the merger, would they have the option to sell their shares for $600 in cash, or would they automatically receive shares in the new combined company? How much choice do shareholders usually have in situations like this?
I'm probably missing a lot here, so I'd love to hear from people who understand mergers better than I do.