u/zylich

As title suggests, what would you suggest to keep up with the inflation for long term, (2-3 years) or 6-7 years.

I haven't extensively studied Sitara petrolum, so I might be lacking in the knowledge, but my current thesis says that Sitara petroleum is being over hyped AF.

Sitara is basically a oil marketing company whose entire busniess model relies on selling fuel to retail outlets (petrol pumps) in volume.

Their margins are heavily regulated by the goverment.

According to my re-search, fuel retail industry on a decline since past 7-8 years.

The overall market cap of the industry is declining while more and more players are entering and fighting for the already shrinking pie.

2017 & 2018 was the absolute peak of this retail industry, where the total fuel consumption of the country touched 17 Million ton for desiel and petrol both. (This doesn't include furnance oil and other stuff)

At that time, total retail outlets (petrol pump) operating were around 8k-8.5k.

At that time, there were only 7-8 OMC's properly operating, selling 17M/T~ fuel to these 8.5k retail outlets

But today, there are 15-16 OMC's that are properly operating, while the amount of petrol station sights has gone upto 12 thousand.

Now the worst part, all of these 12 thousand sights are still selling 17M/T~ (maybe even less)

While the retail outlets grew by 40%-50%, the demand for the fuel is still the same.

Why demand is going down?

There are two likely scenarios.

First, the petrol got so expensive that we have started to use less.

Second, since the petrol is expensive, we have found the alternatives.

Nowadays, litreally nobody uses generators to light up the factories, turbines to pump water.

With the EV revolution in the play, the demand destruction will continue, at a even faster pace.

Also, don't forget the smuggling of desiel, one of the biggest reasons behind demand destruction.
Now the most important part, OMC's doesn't have pricing power.

Their margins are regulated by the OGRA, and goverment always drags their feet.

When the PPDA (Pakistan petrol pump association) threatens to shut down operations, only then goverment pasess on few rupee's or pesais

For example, the last margin hike they got was in 2023, raising their overall gross margin to 7.75~ PKR from 3~ PKR it was in 2021 per liter.

You maybe thinking that from 3 to 7.75, thats more than 120% increment.

But here is the thing.

Back in 2017, when the compeition wasn't this cut throat, their margin hoverd around 3 Rupee.

IF you adjust this 3 rupee with inflation, the current margins are barely beating the inflation.

Meaning the margins are stagnant.

They absolutely do not have pricing power.

Since the current envoirment is very competitive, every OMC is trying their best to intencive the retail outlets (petrol pump owners) with various perks.

Such as paying pump owners monthly rent to stay in contract, and subsidizing in other ways.

With all being said, I don't see long term compounding potential in this entire OMC industry.

Maybe they end up diversifying their portfolio better in future, but that's betting.

This is why I'm not sure why everyone flocks to buy OMC stocks, such as PSO, Sitara petrolium etc.

I just watched recent Pakwheel video, featuring CEO of Lucky motors.

I know the partnership news has already been out for more than a month at this point, I also learned a little about GAC group they are doing partnership with.

Would this GAC partnership gonna be huge impact on overall Lucky's stock? or it has already been priced in?

Is it me or PSX's stock is pretty much undervalued for long term hold?

Currently, the stock is trading around 35 PKR, with P/E ratio of 15, which is pretty cheap, especially the fact that PSX's investor base is growing rapidly likely because of finfluncers.

With the current speed, the stock should have been trading around 20-25 P/E at the very least, but It's not.

Also, I have noticed that this stock is non-shariah, although their underlying busniess is halal?

It's not like they are producing tobbaco or alchol, or entire busniess is interest based.

I maybe wrong, please need conviction.

I only invest in shairah compliant scrips, but we can't just paint anything black and white since financial system is complicated.

Idk, I maybe gaslighting myself.

As title suggests, I have 12-15 stocks in my portfolio, I'm not sure how I'm gonna keep an eye over dividend dates?

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Which conglomarte is more promising with good expected CAGR?

Pre-war, market was consolidating in the ballpark of 185k-170k

The oil was $60, interest rates were 10.5%, and inflation was around 6%

Post-war, market is consolidating between 165k-170k.

The oil is $110, interest rates 11.5%, inflation 11%.

Other than few selective sector stocks, there doesn't seem to be much value left, everything has been priced in.

Buying at current levels doesn't seem worthwhile, because market is mostly corrected.

On the other hand, if war prolonges, index could come back to 155k.

Do you think waiting for war to end is good idea? or just buy buy if there is any value left?

As everyone is aware of it already, Banks are a MASSIVE part of KSE-100 index, while KMI-30 struggles with high concentration issues due to very less amount of high cap compainese.

For example, FFC takes up 8% of KSE100, while it takes staggering 15% of the index in KMI-30.

I was wondering if more banks ever gonna pass shariah compliance screening in the near future? or there is still wait of decades?

I'm currently invested in MCIF, they are offering around 9.5% returns after fees.

Are there other alternatives that pay even higher?

As title suggest, I've heard alot about few sectors that are supposdely cyclical, and only perform in a certain time period.

So the consenus often advocates offloading them at peak of the economy.

But my question is, does it matter in the long term if a busniess is a fundamentally strong?

Lets take GHNI as an example.

Even though this stock is supposedly cyclical, but its total returns are over 30% CGAR since the company's inspection.

I'm very certain that GHNI will continue to perform well because it holds a very big market share.

So, is it wise to keep it holding for long term regradless of the economic downturns or uptrends?

Any Idea how to time the entery and exist for Cylical stocks? Such as Cement, Auto, or any other manufactuering busniess.

I mean, I know the basics that keep an eye on M2 Money supply, interest rates, inflation, as well as current forgien reserves.

But I'm not sure how to execute it practically with descipline, because market prices in everything while you are asleep?

Is there any way to update Ticker price of each stock in my spreadsheet automatically?

I tried few extentions and bunch of stuff, it didn't work.

I recently came across the concept of Islamic Cash funds, which are very flexible when withdrawing money, and returns are almost enough to fight against inflation.

Since I get paid in $$'s, I hold alot of it, but I'm not sure if I should keep them in that digital wallet or withdraw.

My question is which is the better option? I actually don't feel comofrtable keeping my money in some digital wallet for prolonged period of time.