u/zylich

Due to Auto policy, a stock that was supposed to trade at 2800~ given upcoming full year EPS of 380-390, Sazgar is dropping each day, down to 1850.

Does anyone has any educated guesess what would the policy gonna look like?

Only asking for educated guess ofc, and how do you see sazgar's positioning.

would they be able to maintian car sale volume of 1500-2000 per month?

Divdend date for Money market funds is around the corner, and I'm currently invested in MICF (Mahanna Islamic cash fund)

I started investing in MICF just a month ago.

Fund's current value is 126, lets say they are gonna pay 5 as dividends.

But since I just started investing a month ago, I've only earned 1.2% so far.

But since fund let's say 2% as dividend, would I be taxed at 2%? even though my total earned money is only 1.2%.

Isn't it kind of unfair if we are only accounting for unconsolidated results ?

1 tb slim ps5 1 controlor with box, what should be the good and final price for this console?

I see alot of fake ads of products with prices too good to be true.

How does the scam actually works? what does the fake ad maker is trying to achive.

Like someone selling playstations for 1 lac, or expensive half million worth laptop being offerd in just 2 lac.

I know Meezan bank is pioneer of islamic banking, and demands premium multiple, being the most effeicent bank out here.

But I noticed that Faysal bank is consistently trading between P/E of 5 & 6 while Meezan bank at 10.

Faysal bank is paying 7.2% dividend yeild with the payout ratio of 45%

Meezan bank pays 5.8% with the payout ratio of 60%.

Meezan retain's only 40% of investor's money, while faysal bank keeps 60% of the investor money even though paying higher yield.

Although MEBL's ROE is around 33%, while FABL is around 20%.

But FABL's is currently improving, on a right tragictory ever since their full islamic conversion.

With high dividend yeild, and improving ROE, isn't stock trading at very low P/E?

Or is there something I'm missing.

What could be the factors?

I'm currently using AKD securities services, but want another account.

I remember the nightmare of opening a new account, so I wanted to know if there is any faster way to open a new account for someone who already have another broker account, like skipping over bunch of verifications?

How actually the june budget announcment negatively impact PSX?

As title suggests, what would you suggest to keep up with the inflation for long term, (2-3 years) or 6-7 years.

I haven't extensively studied Sitara petrolum, so I might be lacking in the knowledge, but my current thesis says that Sitara petroleum is being over hyped AF.

Sitara is basically a oil marketing company whose entire busniess model relies on selling fuel to retail outlets (petrol pumps) in volume.

Their margins are heavily regulated by the goverment.

According to my re-search, fuel retail industry on a decline since past 7-8 years.

The overall market cap of the industry is declining while more and more players are entering and fighting for the already shrinking pie.

2017 & 2018 was the absolute peak of this retail industry, where the total fuel consumption of the country touched 17 Million ton for desiel and petrol both. (This doesn't include furnance oil and other stuff)

At that time, total retail outlets (petrol pump) operating were around 8k-8.5k.

At that time, there were only 7-8 OMC's properly operating, selling 17M/T~ fuel to these 8.5k retail outlets

But today, there are 15-16 OMC's that are properly operating, while the amount of petrol station sights has gone upto 12 thousand.

Now the worst part, all of these 12 thousand sights are still selling 17M/T~ (maybe even less)

While the retail outlets grew by 40%-50%, the demand for the fuel is still the same.

Why demand is going down?

There are two likely scenarios.

First, the petrol got so expensive that we have started to use less.

Second, since the petrol is expensive, we have found the alternatives.

Nowadays, litreally nobody uses generators to light up the factories, turbines to pump water.

With the EV revolution in the play, the demand destruction will continue, at a even faster pace.

Also, don't forget the smuggling of desiel, one of the biggest reasons behind demand destruction.
Now the most important part, OMC's doesn't have pricing power.

Their margins are regulated by the OGRA, and goverment always drags their feet.

When the PPDA (Pakistan petrol pump association) threatens to shut down operations, only then goverment pasess on few rupee's or pesais

For example, the last margin hike they got was in 2023, raising their overall gross margin to 7.75~ PKR from 3~ PKR it was in 2021 per liter.

You maybe thinking that from 3 to 7.75, thats more than 120% increment.

But here is the thing.

Back in 2017, when the compeition wasn't this cut throat, their margin hoverd around 3 Rupee.

IF you adjust this 3 rupee with inflation, the current margins are barely beating the inflation.

Meaning the margins are stagnant.

They absolutely do not have pricing power.

Since the current envoirment is very competitive, every OMC is trying their best to intencive the retail outlets (petrol pump owners) with various perks.

Such as paying pump owners monthly rent to stay in contract, and subsidizing in other ways.

With all being said, I don't see long term compounding potential in this entire OMC industry.

Maybe they end up diversifying their portfolio better in future, but that's betting.

This is why I'm not sure why everyone flocks to buy OMC stocks, such as PSO, Sitara petrolium etc.

I just watched recent Pakwheel video, featuring CEO of Lucky motors.

I know the partnership news has already been out for more than a month at this point, I also learned a little about GAC group they are doing partnership with.

Would this GAC partnership gonna be huge impact on overall Lucky's stock? or it has already been priced in?

Is it me or PSX's stock is pretty much undervalued for long term hold?

Currently, the stock is trading around 35 PKR, with P/E ratio of 15, which is pretty cheap, especially the fact that PSX's investor base is growing rapidly likely because of finfluncers.

With the current speed, the stock should have been trading around 20-25 P/E at the very least, but It's not.

Also, I have noticed that this stock is non-shariah, although their underlying busniess is halal?

It's not like they are producing tobbaco or alchol, or entire busniess is interest based.

I maybe wrong, please need conviction.

I only invest in shairah compliant scrips, but we can't just paint anything black and white since financial system is complicated.

Idk, I maybe gaslighting myself.

As title suggests, I have 12-15 stocks in my portfolio, I'm not sure how I'm gonna keep an eye over dividend dates?

I

Which conglomarte is more promising with good expected CAGR?

Pre-war, market was consolidating in the ballpark of 185k-170k

The oil was $60, interest rates were 10.5%, and inflation was around 6%

Post-war, market is consolidating between 165k-170k.

The oil is $110, interest rates 11.5%, inflation 11%.

Other than few selective sector stocks, there doesn't seem to be much value left, everything has been priced in.

Buying at current levels doesn't seem worthwhile, because market is mostly corrected.

On the other hand, if war prolonges, index could come back to 155k.

Do you think waiting for war to end is good idea? or just buy buy if there is any value left?