r/AAPL

https://preview.redd.it/ih0nvqbvb7fh1.png?width=1896&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc0101369a8ae43d71bbbb7ba5feabbef6aa601c

$AAPL

Right out of the gates.
MARSI cross.
Close above PDH.

CALLS active.

*No trade for me today. Was out running errands.

**SpaceX (SPCX) a month after the biggest IPO in history — is this a $2T rocket or a falling knife?**

Been chewing on this one since the IPO and figured I’d lay out both sides, because the bull/bear split is wild right now.
The setup: largest IPO ever, $1.77T valuation, popped 19% day one, Musk briefly a trillionaire on paper. Then reality it’s been drifting back toward the IPO price and the technicals have gone cold. Meanwhile short interest is sitting around 31% of float, which tells you the skeptics are loading up, not backing off.
Bull case: Nasdaq 100 inclusion forcing passive ETF inflows, Starlink revenue ramp, and a company that literally has no comp. Bear case: no earnings track record as a public co, priced for perfection, and a third of the float betting against it.

Apple is the only mag 7 who has not burned through all their FCF by building datacenters and the market is rewarding them for exactly that.

This signals that we might see hyperscalers who indicate heightened ai spend to be credited with a selloff by the market. And cutting back could lead to a rally, highly incentivicing cutbacks across the board come next earnings cycle.

Any slowdown of capex spend will lead to an absolute bloodbath for Memory and downstream semi suppliers at first who are riding high on ASP hikes. Even if we are still structurally in a shortage, stocks will crater as they are forward looking and pricing in the coming downturn.

This is only part 1 of the bubble popping. And even if it doesnt pop this part seems to be inevitable and was started to get priced in last week.

AAPL hit a new all-time high on Monday, making it the strongest performer among the “Magnificent Seven” so far this year. The stock has gained more than 20% over the past three months, and the move shows investors are starting to appreciate Apple’s more cautious approach to the AI race.

While many companies rushed to make big AI promises, Apple has taken a slower approach. Some investors were frustrated by that patience, but the market may be realizing that Apple doesn’t need to win the AI race by building the biggest model. It needs to turn AI into a better experience for billions of existing users.

The interesting part is that the AI hype itself is starting to face more questions. Valuations are stretched, expectations are extremely high, and investors are beginning to separate companies with real business models from companies simply riding the AI narrative.

Apple’s strength has always been ecosystem, customer loyalty, and cash flow. If AI can become another reason for users to upgrade devices and use more services, this could be the beginning of another growth cycle.

The question now is: is Apple being rewarded because the market finally understands its strategy, or is the stock already pricing in too much future success?

The 6s looked so good

AAPL did a 4-for-1 split back in 2020 when the share price got too high (around $500). I bet they do another one in the next year or so when the price gets above $400.

I want to double my holdings in Apple but just haven’t gotten around to it. What do you long term holders think? I’m sure there will be a pullback at some time but I’ve been waiting too long now. I wish it was still a forgotten about dinosaur according to the market and media.

I mean he built his name and fortune at Apple and now he is seemingly doing everything he can to fuck the company.

Has anyone successfully hedged AAPL over the years and recovered the cost of the hedge? For some other stocks, I have been successful by buying LEAP Puts and recovering their cost by selling weekly puts against them. In most cases, the premiums are good enough to make it work. With AAPL, weekly premiums beyond the first couple of strikes are shyte, and the stock tends to make sudden $10-15 moves, which might get my LEAP Put called away.

Any other ideas?