I've been reflecting on some of the comments from other moderators on this subreddit recently.

It's true that we've suffered from some high inflation recently. Parking my entire portfolio into short-term treasuries does seem a little too conservative.

The prevailing opinion amongst bulls is that this can go on a lot longer - perhaps years.

I decided to search for a macro bull case to make long-term investments in stocks... (other than semiconductor pumping FOMO)

First, I decided to compare the S&P500 against M2 money supply. Oh dear, it appears we're at all-time highs.

OK, so the Nasdaq must be lower then, since we're seeing such great "earnings". Oh wait, we're much higher than the 2000 peak... hmmm

Well, maybe gold will tell me what to do. Surely that's going.... nope, still rolling over.

At least bonds yields won't compete with the market though, TLT is ugh.... about to test new lows.

Inflation expectations are clearly still high, but are they actually printing enough money? Maybe not...

Gas prices then? Lower energy costs stimulate economic... OH, they are at 2008 and 2022 levels, that's... fine! It's totally 200% fine!

The inflationary pressures are more a push into demand destruction right now, rather than a pull from disposable income.

Meanwhile, the FED is starting to lean away from dovishness.

Essentially, the bull case is about the momentum of AI datacenter buildout - just like it was about the momentum of internet fiber laying in the 2000s.

The Gartner Hype Cycle may be about to strike once again!

Another batch of company write-ups from Substack authors worth taking a look at.

Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: https://gilescapital.substack.com

Americas

Capitalist Letters on Oracle Corporation (🇺🇸 ORCL US - US$498bn) Oracle's third Ellison-led pivot targets US$224bn revenue by 2030 with cloud growing 75% annually. Contracted future revenue of US$553bn is the bull case; US$112bn net debt and negative free cash flow are the cost.

HatedMoats on Mastercard (🇺🇸 MA US - US$450bn) Wonderful business at fair price. DCF base case lands at US$568 versus US$504 today, a roughly 13% margin of safety. Author selling US$480 puts and waiting for genuine weakness.

Elliot on ServiceNow (🇺🇸 NOW US - US$96bn) Earnings update. Subscription revenue up 19%, AI guidance raised by US$500m, but the stock crashed 14% post-print as Iran-driven uncertainty pushed customers to delay deals for software hosted on their own servers.

Elliot on Intel Corporation (🇺🇸 INTC US - US$95bn) Earnings update. Data centre revenue up 22% and the chip manufacturing turnaround on schedule, but the stock trades at a record-high price-to-sales while investors wait 12-18 months for the foundry business to start generating cash.

The Finance Corner on Zoom Communications (🇺🇸 ZM US - US$26bn) Strip away US$7.7bn cash plus a US$4bn Anthropic stake from a US$26bn company and the core video business is left at roughly 7x free cash flow. A near-mirror of the old Yahoo and Alibaba setup.

The Few Bets That Matter on CF Industries and Intrepid Potash (🇺🇸 CF, IPI - US$18bn, US$420m) Two North American fertiliser plays as defensive macro hedges. CF benefits directly from the Hormuz disruption tightening global nitrogen supply; IPI is the sole US potash producer with net cash and lithium optionality.

Brian Coughlin on Meridian Holdings (🇺🇸 MRDN US - US$77m) Global online betting operator at 5x adjusted EBITDA after a March rebrand and reverse split. A US$92m goodwill writedown muddies the GAAP picture; underlying revenue grew 21% to US$183m and debt was cut 51% year-on-year.

Wolf Of Oakville on Biorem Inc. (🇨🇦 BRM CN - US$33m) Canadian air-emissions-control microcap with C$65m of contracted backlog against a C$46m market cap. FY25 earnings up 60%, net cash on the balance sheet, and management guiding to a 43% beat over the next three quarters.

Europe, Middle East & Africa

Rijnberk InvestInsights on Hermès International (🇫🇷 RMS PA - €173bn) Sixth-generation family-controlled luxury business at 38x earnings after a 40% drawdown. Operating margins of 40%, return on capital above 30%, €8bn net cash, and a 15-hour minimum craft time per Birkin bag means supply can only grow 7-10% a year.

DeepValue Capital on Pandora (🇩🇰 PNDORA DC - DKK52bn) The world's largest jewellery company by volume, down 60% from highs with a 33.5% IRR base case and a 4% dividend. Author passed despite the numbers, arguing jewellery is won by design taste rather than scale, and the new product team has yet to prove it can deliver consistently.

Schwar Capital Research on Ashtead Technology (🇬🇧 AT LN - £700m) Author writes up Ashtead at 30% of his portfolio after a 65% year-to-date run. UK underwater equipment rental business with 30,000+ pieces of kit, structurally short market, and a cost-and-scale advantage smaller players can't replicate.

Myles Kuah on RaySearch Laboratories (🇸🇪 RAY B SS - SEK6.1bn) Swedish oncology software with an 80% share of the proton therapy planning market. Trading at 27x earnings after a 50% drawdown, with 90% gross margins, expanding operating leverage, and founder Johan Löf controlling 41% of votes.

Deep Value Insights on Passat SA (🇫🇷 ALPAS PA - €17m) Classic Graham net-net. Net cash equals 82% of market cap, P/B is 0.42x, EV/EBITDA is 0.7x, and the 81-year-old founder plus his CEO son are both buying open market in March 2026. Zero analyst coverage.

Asia-Pacific

Asia Tech Review on SK Hynix (🇰🇷 000660 KS - US$170bn) Korean memory chip leader with 61% share of high-bandwidth memory and 72% gross margins on that product line. A clear beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending, though P/E approaching 25x and memory cycle risk warrant caution.

Rei Saito on Nintendo (🇯🇵 7974 JP - US$61bn) TOP PICK Stock down 40% in six months on production cuts and AI-narrative panic. Backing out ¥2.29tn net cash, the core business trades around 9-10x EV/EBITDA. Switch 2 sold 17.4 million units in six months and the Mario movie is the biggest 2026 release.

Eric Jurado on Karex Holdings (🇲🇾 KAREX MK - US$127m) The world's largest condom manufacturer, with one in five sold globally. Iran disruption doubled shipping times and pushed raw material costs up 25-30%, allowing 20-30% price hikes into demand that doesn't go away. Currently unprofitable, but small revenue gains drop heavily to the bottom line on recovery.

AltayCap on Art Vivant (🇯🇵 7523 JP - US$83m) TOP PICK Tokyo microcap below NCAV plus investments. Founder's August 2025 buyout at ¥1,670 was blocked by activist Hiroyuki Maki, who has now accumulated 40.13% and is openly seeking management control. Top three holders own 83% of shares.

Everyone tells you to look at the P/E ratio.

But here's what they don't tell you:

A high P/E isn't always bad.

And a low P/E isn't always a good thing.

That's why the PEG ratio makes all the difference.

The PEG ratio is the P/E ratio's smarter cousin.

Here's what it does:

It calculates the P/E ratio by dividing it by the company's expected earnings growth rate.

The formula: PEG = P/E Ratio ÷ Earnings Growth Rate

Think of it like this:

The P/E ratio tells you how much you're paying for earnings today.

The PEG ratio indicates whether you're paying a fair price for future growth.

Here's how to read it:

PEG less than 1 = Potentially undervalued

PEG equal to 1 = Fairly valued

PEG greater than 1 = Potentially overvalued

Real example:

Company A has a P/E of 30 and 30% growth = PEG of 1.0

Company B has a P/E of 15 and 10% growth = PEG of 1.5

Company A is actually the better value, even though it looks more expensive.

The catch?

Growth rates are estimates. They're not guaranteed. So use analyst estimates and company guidance, but always verify the numbers make sense.

Bottom line:

The P/E ratio shows you the price.

The PEG ratio indicates whether the price is justified.

What's your go-to valuation metric? P/E or PEG?