Another batch of company write-ups from Substack authors worth taking a look at.

Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: https://gilescapital.substack.com

Americas

Capitalist Letters on Oracle Corporation (🇺🇸 ORCL US - US$498bn) Oracle's third Ellison-led pivot targets US$224bn revenue by 2030 with cloud growing 75% annually. Contracted future revenue of US$553bn is the bull case; US$112bn net debt and negative free cash flow are the cost.

HatedMoats on Mastercard (🇺🇸 MA US - US$450bn) Wonderful business at fair price. DCF base case lands at US$568 versus US$504 today, a roughly 13% margin of safety. Author selling US$480 puts and waiting for genuine weakness.

Elliot on ServiceNow (🇺🇸 NOW US - US$96bn) Earnings update. Subscription revenue up 19%, AI guidance raised by US$500m, but the stock crashed 14% post-print as Iran-driven uncertainty pushed customers to delay deals for software hosted on their own servers.

Elliot on Intel Corporation (🇺🇸 INTC US - US$95bn) Earnings update. Data centre revenue up 22% and the chip manufacturing turnaround on schedule, but the stock trades at a record-high price-to-sales while investors wait 12-18 months for the foundry business to start generating cash.

The Finance Corner on Zoom Communications (🇺🇸 ZM US - US$26bn) Strip away US$7.7bn cash plus a US$4bn Anthropic stake from a US$26bn company and the core video business is left at roughly 7x free cash flow. A near-mirror of the old Yahoo and Alibaba setup.

The Few Bets That Matter on CF Industries and Intrepid Potash (🇺🇸 CF, IPI - US$18bn, US$420m) Two North American fertiliser plays as defensive macro hedges. CF benefits directly from the Hormuz disruption tightening global nitrogen supply; IPI is the sole US potash producer with net cash and lithium optionality.

Brian Coughlin on Meridian Holdings (🇺🇸 MRDN US - US$77m) Global online betting operator at 5x adjusted EBITDA after a March rebrand and reverse split. A US$92m goodwill writedown muddies the GAAP picture; underlying revenue grew 21% to US$183m and debt was cut 51% year-on-year.

Wolf Of Oakville on Biorem Inc. (🇨🇦 BRM CN - US$33m) Canadian air-emissions-control microcap with C$65m of contracted backlog against a C$46m market cap. FY25 earnings up 60%, net cash on the balance sheet, and management guiding to a 43% beat over the next three quarters.

Europe, Middle East & Africa

Rijnberk InvestInsights on Hermès International (🇫🇷 RMS PA - €173bn) Sixth-generation family-controlled luxury business at 38x earnings after a 40% drawdown. Operating margins of 40%, return on capital above 30%, €8bn net cash, and a 15-hour minimum craft time per Birkin bag means supply can only grow 7-10% a year.

DeepValue Capital on Pandora (🇩🇰 PNDORA DC - DKK52bn) The world's largest jewellery company by volume, down 60% from highs with a 33.5% IRR base case and a 4% dividend. Author passed despite the numbers, arguing jewellery is won by design taste rather than scale, and the new product team has yet to prove it can deliver consistently.

Schwar Capital Research on Ashtead Technology (🇬🇧 AT LN - £700m) Author writes up Ashtead at 30% of his portfolio after a 65% year-to-date run. UK underwater equipment rental business with 30,000+ pieces of kit, structurally short market, and a cost-and-scale advantage smaller players can't replicate.

Myles Kuah on RaySearch Laboratories (🇸🇪 RAY B SS - SEK6.1bn) Swedish oncology software with an 80% share of the proton therapy planning market. Trading at 27x earnings after a 50% drawdown, with 90% gross margins, expanding operating leverage, and founder Johan Löf controlling 41% of votes.

Deep Value Insights on Passat SA (🇫🇷 ALPAS PA - €17m) Classic Graham net-net. Net cash equals 82% of market cap, P/B is 0.42x, EV/EBITDA is 0.7x, and the 81-year-old founder plus his CEO son are both buying open market in March 2026. Zero analyst coverage.

Asia-Pacific

Asia Tech Review on SK Hynix (🇰🇷 000660 KS - US$170bn) Korean memory chip leader with 61% share of high-bandwidth memory and 72% gross margins on that product line. A clear beneficiary of AI infrastructure spending, though P/E approaching 25x and memory cycle risk warrant caution.

Rei Saito on Nintendo (🇯🇵 7974 JP - US$61bn) TOP PICK Stock down 40% in six months on production cuts and AI-narrative panic. Backing out ¥2.29tn net cash, the core business trades around 9-10x EV/EBITDA. Switch 2 sold 17.4 million units in six months and the Mario movie is the biggest 2026 release.

Eric Jurado on Karex Holdings (🇲🇾 KAREX MK - US$127m) The world's largest condom manufacturer, with one in five sold globally. Iran disruption doubled shipping times and pushed raw material costs up 25-30%, allowing 20-30% price hikes into demand that doesn't go away. Currently unprofitable, but small revenue gains drop heavily to the bottom line on recovery.

AltayCap on Art Vivant (🇯🇵 7523 JP - US$83m) TOP PICK Tokyo microcap below NCAV plus investments. Founder's August 2025 buyout at ¥1,670 was blocked by activist Hiroyuki Maki, who has now accumulated 40.13% and is openly seeking management control. Top three holders own 83% of shares.

Time for a rant... My sense is...Corporate America keeps its debt around 15% of the capital structure. Been drifting down for years.

​Think about what that means. The people who run actual companies, who go bankrupt when they're wrong, looked at leverage and mostly said no thanks.....

​Then the rest of us built it for them.... Should we expect that this continues on forever...

​The question now, when does it end? How does it end? Who walks away with the bag?

​Margin debt just hit a record $1.42 trillion, up 54% in a year. And that's the boring ground floor. Put a 2x ETF on top. Buy calls on the ETF. Borrow on margin to do it. Four layers of double-or-zero, all riding on the same one share, none of it touching the ground.

​The companies were too smart to build something this fragile. So we assembled it by hand out of their stock and called every new floor an innovation.

​Good for thought anyway

https://caffeinatedcaptial.substack.com/p/the-daily-morning-brew-the-cliff

A Trump Administration previously ardently opposed to any real or perceived interference in AI development has suddenly broken the seals with an executive order and most recently the export control of Anthropic’s newest model, Fable 5. Anthropic made the connection between AI model development and existential cybersecurity threats and that connection has changed the face of AI development.

Anthropic is sitting on top of some of the most powerful pieces of technology in human history and has found a way to get them export controlled. As the internet collectively groans over the Trump Administration’s decision, many of these Tweets are missing two critical points:

1. The lack of AI testing and assurance is a direct hinderance to AI innovation
2. Export control processes should be understood as AI continues to grow

If we don’t get our arms around ways to test AI and be able to justify why export control decisions like this were made, we will find ourselves in the next cycle of an AI winter.

Anthropic’s gambit of pressing the fear narrative could have ended very differently. Had Anthropic accompanied these claims with announcements that it was funding or had funded a program of rigorous AI testing, it would have cut the government’s actions off before they started. Had Project Glasswing instead been a testing effort rather than a conglomeration of other billion-dollar companies, the Fable 5 story would have ended differently.

The problem is that for too long, AI testing and assurance were seen as red tape, as blockers to innovation. Instead, Anthropic’s own actions have revealed them to be the true definition of AI infrastructure. AI infrastructure, in the hardware sense, is the infrastructure that enables AI models to be trained and used by millions. The fate of Fable 5 is that it is trained but not being used by millions of eager users. Had Anthropic had AI safety and assurance infrastructure in place, this would have been prevented. The ultimate AI enabler.

Fable 5 is the outcome of a fear-based narrative about a product not coupled with testing and assurance. Small wonder that AI users trust more advanced models less than early models that were less accurate. As we’ve built models to be more capable, we’ve ignored the need to ensure they are performing. Not performance in the sense of how many tokens they use or how fast they are. Performance in the sense of testing against edge cases, preventing harms, and protecting national security. If the government is to evaluate AI models, as the Trump executive order states, it must have standardized testing to evaluate all models regardless of maker or input.

Anthropic hath wrought some of the most advanced models to date that are doing amazing things. In that pursuit, it also hath wrought government intervention from a previously non-interventionist Administration. In so doing, it has proven that AI testing and assurance is AI infrastructure and without it, we are assured of unintended consequences.

Read the whole article here: https://binarybreakaway.substack.com/p/what-hath-anthropic-wrought