r/BritishPolitics

Study involving 100 sitting MPs reveals gulf between perceptions of the political class and realities of public attitudes on environmental issues such as insulation and green taxes.

Our study found a systematic pessimism about the public appetite for climate action among the UK’s most influential decision-makers

Lisa-Maria Tanase

Members of Parliament from the UK’s three biggest political parties in the House of Commons significantly overestimate levels of public resistance to major policy proposals for tackling climate change, a University of Cambridge study suggests. 

Researchers say it may be the first data-led evidence for a “spiral of silence” in Westminster, where skewed perceptions of public sentiment among politicians can reduce political support for a policy.  

The study’s authors, from the University’s El-Erian Institute of Behavioural Economics and Policy and the Cambridge Political Psychology Lab, surveyed one hundred sitting MPs in early 2025 on how they think voters and other parliamentarians feel about carbon reduction policies, and compared their estimates with public polling from earlier that year.

On making grants or loans for improved insulation available to all households with an energy efficiency rating of C or below, MPs collectively estimated public opposition to the policy at around 18%, more than three times the actual level of just 6%. 

When asked about rejigging tax on products so that it varies according to environmental damage, MPs believed public opposition to be around 38%, almost double the 20% shown by polling the British people.  

“MPs across parties who both support and oppose climate policies consistently overestimate public opposition,” said study lead author Dr Lisa-Maria Tanase, who conducted the work for her PhD at Cambridge. “This is likely to limit the range of what they consider to be politically feasible options for taking action on climate change.”   

“Our findings cannot be explained away by wishful thinking of politicians or the projecting of their own worldview. On average, even MPs who support a climate policy think the public is more opposed to it than it really is,” said Tanase. 
“Politicians, like all of us, are often exposed to information environments that distort perceptions of public opinion. Social and traditional media can disproportionately reflect particularly vocal segments of society rather than the full distribution of opinion.” 

“We find a ‘funhouse mirror’ effect through which politicians see a distorted version of the public position on carbon reduction policies, associated with a lower willingness to promote these ideas,” said Tanase, now a Postdoctoral Research Associate at Cambridge’s El-Erian Institute of Behavioural Economics and Policy. 

Link to petition: https://www.change.org/p/independent-review-into-the-circumstances-surrounding-the-death-of-dr-jason-arday

Reform UK has slumped to third place in a new opinion poll.

In a fresh blow to Nigel Farage ahead of Thursday’s by-election in Clacton, the Lord Ashcroft survey showed support for the party has fallen to 18%. That is down 3 points on the Tory peer’s previous poll a month ago.

At the same time, the Conservatives have gone up by 2 points to 23%, while Labour is up 6 points to 27%.

The poll is further evidence that Labour is enjoying a bounce in popularity under new prime minister Andy Burnham.

It will also be welcomed by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who has won praise in recent weeks for her improved performance.

But the poll is a further reality check for Reform, who have come under pressure over the financial arrangements of both Farage and the party itself.

It emerged in April that Farage had not declared a £5 million gift he received from Thailand-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before he ran for parliament in 2024.

Parliment’s standards commissioner launched an investigation, but that was put on hold when Farage resigned as MP for Clacton to trigger a “people versus the establishment” by-election in the seat.

He is expected to be re-elected when that takes place on Thursday, although his only serious rival is Count Binface after Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and Restore Britain all refused to put up candidates.

Assuming he makes it back to Westminster, the standards probe will then re-start, which could see him suspended from parliament if he is found to have broken the rules.

• Newly elected Mayor unveils major expansion of free baby bundles for families from 1,500 to 10,000 by next year 
• Each baby bundle includes newborn essentials, such as a moses basket and baby clothes, plus toys, books and a baby’s first toothbrush 
• Baby bundles are distributed on a referral basis, supported by a network of Baby Banks across Greater Manchester
• Bev Craig is making it a priority of her mayoralty to make sure that wraparound support is there for every family that needs it.

Exclusive: Party would have raised £4.1m instead of £26.7m last year if £100k funding limit had been in place, Electoral Commission data suggests

Reform UK would have held just 15% of the donations it received last year if a proposed £100,000 cap on political donations had been in force, according to analysis shared with the Guardian.

The analysis by Friends of the Earth using Electoral Commission data highlights the party’s reliance on a handful of wealthy backers in advance of a showdown over political funding.

It registered donations between April 2025 and March 2026 and assumed union affiliation payments would be exempt from the cap, in line with recommendations made by the Phillips review into party funding.

The findings suggest Reform UK would have raised just £4.1m between April 2025 and March 2026, instead of the £26.7m it actually received, if a £100,000 annual donation limit applied. Reform’s registered average donation last year was £137,496, almost six times higher than Labour’s £23,406 or the Conservatives’ £23,173 and 30 times higher than the Liberal Democrats’ average donation of £4,496.

By comparison, Labour would have retained about three-quarters of its registered donations under the cap, raising £8.1m rather than £10.8m. The Tories would have kept just over half of their donations, taking £8.3m instead of £15.5m. The Lib Dems would have held on to about 90% of theirs, taking £5.2m instead of £5.8m, and the Greens would have been unaffected with their £468k in donations.

Reform would no longer be Britain’s best-funded political party under the cap, according to the analysis. Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems all would have raised more over the same period.