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(8/19) "Final" PBE Patch notes. Smaller one today, with small buffs and Augment adjustments. The meta's been pretty stable the last week, so we're not overreacting to yesterday's medium-sized patch.
As with every Set, we'll re-evaluate early next week to see if anything warrants a last-second balance change to make sure the launch patch is the best it can be.
I recently posted a pretty detailed math write-up on how to optimize clicking this wisp (for fractions of gold). Soon after posting it, however, I was alerted by u/learning-android-322 of this message from GM_Blue in wasianiverson's chat:
> Flip Frenzy 1st flip is 85% chance of heads, 2nd flip is 60%, 3rd+ is 50%
This makes perfect sense and we know Riot has done this in the past with similar charms. A wisp with a marginal expected value of 0g (if the coin flip was fair) wouldn't feel fun. TFT systems often cheat behind the scenes to ensure the player doesn't have a bad game experience due to perceived unlucky RNG.
It's very simple: always buy Flip Frenzy (unless you're somehow rolling on stage 2 for a different wisp). You were probably going to do this anyway because gambling is fun! Even if you're at 10g (or X0g) and in danger of dropping an interval, it's always better to click it on average. The average expected payout is 1.87g for an expected return of 0.87g after discounting the 1g purchase cost.
Interest changes how large the advantage is, but it never makes the wisp negative in either model I tested. The single-round EV ranges from +0.72g to +1.38g. Under a save-to-50 multi-round model, every gold value from 10g to 49g is still positive, ranging from +0.72g to +1.94g.
Since this is PBE, final numbers are of course subject to change.
The expected payout can be written as the probability of receiving each successive gold:
1st gold: 85%
2nd gold: 85% * 60% = 51%
3rd gold: 51% * 50% = 25.5%
4th gold: 12.75%
5th gold: 6.375%
...
So:
EV payout
= 0.85 + 0.51 + 0.255 + 0.1275 + ...
= 1.87g
After paying 1g:
Net EV = 1.87 - 1 = +0.87g
Let G be the gold you would have at the time of the interest check without buying the wisp.
Likely loss: G = current gold
Likely win: G = current gold + 1
The table below includes the raw +0.87g edge and the change to this round's interest.
| G last digit | Interest adjustment | Total EV |
|---|---|---|
0 |
-0.149g | +0.721g |
1 |
+0.002g | +0.872g |
2 |
+0.004g | +0.874g |
3 |
+0.008g | +0.878g |
4 |
+0.016g | +0.886g |
5 |
+0.032g | +0.902g |
6 |
+0.064g | +0.934g |
7 |
+0.128g | +0.998g |
8 |
+0.255g | +1.125g |
9 |
+0.510g | +1.380g |
X0 is still the weakest position. If you are projected to have exactly 30g, tails drops you to 29 and costs one interest. That only happens 15% of the time, so the interest loss is not large enough to cancel the raw +0.87g.
X9 is still the strongest position. At 29g, two heads takes you to 30 after paying the cost. The chance of getting at least two heads is 51%.
The interest adjustment is just the expected change in interest caused by the wisp:
Interest adjustment = E[interest after wisp - interest without wisp]
For projected gold X1 through X9, tails does not drop you an interest tier, so the adjustment comes from the chance of rolling enough heads to reach the next breakpoint. For example, at 29g you pay to 28g and need 2 heads to reach 30:
P(2+ heads) = 85% * 60% = 51%
So the first breakpoint contributes +0.51g of interest EV. There are also tiny chances to reach 40 and 50, bringing the total adjustment to about +0.5105g.
At X0, the logic reverses. Paying 1g puts you below your current breakpoint, and tails happens 15% of the time:
-1 interest * 15% = -0.15g
Very long head streaks can still reach the next breakpoint, so the exact adjustment is slightly better than that, about -0.149g. In general, if your projected gold is 10n + r with r > 0, the first extra interest gold is earned when you hit at least:
11 - r heads
Additional interest tiers require another 10 heads each.
For this section I used a simple benchmark:
This roughly captures the "save to 50g as fast as possible" stage 2 game plan. Here we especially care about interest intervals, so if there was ever a scenario where flip frenzy would be -EV, it would be this one.
The future value of a gold total is calculated by repeatedly applying:
next gold = current gold + 5 + interest
This captures so-called "hidden intervals". For example:
13 -> 19 -> 25 -> 32 -> 40 -> 49 -> 58
14 -> 20 -> 27 -> 34 -> 42 -> 51 -> 61
The difference between 13g and 14g eventually becomes 3g, even though there is no current-round difference in interest between them. That makes hitting a tails at 14g unexpectedly expensive. However, since the failure chance is only 15%, even this scenario results in being a risk worth taking.
Here is the complete table. Look up G, using current gold on a likely loss and current gold + 1 on a likely win.
| Last digit | 10s | 20s | 30s | 40s |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0 |
10: +1.497g |
20: +0.747g |
30: +1.104g |
40: +1.231g |
1 |
11: +1.254g |
21: +1.223g |
31: +1.638g |
41: +0.722g |
2 |
12: +1.939g |
22: +1.577g |
32: +1.236g |
42: +0.874g |
3 |
13: +1.837g |
23: +1.113g |
33: +0.732g |
43: +0.878g |
4 |
14: +0.764g |
24: +1.657g |
34: +0.894g |
44: +0.886g |
5 |
15: +1.258g |
25: +1.274g |
35: +0.918g |
45: +0.902g |
6 |
16: +1.646g |
26: +0.808g |
36: +0.966g |
46: +0.934g |
7 |
17: +1.252g |
27: +1.045g |
37: +1.061g |
47: +0.998g |
8 |
18: +1.934g |
28: +1.221g |
38: +1.253g |
48: +1.125g |
9 |
19: +1.828g |
29: +1.572g |
39: +1.635g |
49: +1.380g |
Some examples:
| Current gold | Fight read | Projected G | Save-to-50 EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | likely loss | 14 | +0.764g |
| 14 | likely win | 15 | +1.258g |
| 29 | likely loss | 29 | +1.572g |
| 29 | likely win | 30 | +1.104g |
| 40 | likely loss | 40 | +1.231g |
| 40 | likely win | 41 | +0.722g |
| 49 | likely loss | 49 | +1.380g |
| 49 | likely win | 50 | +0.720g |
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(8/18) PBE Patch Notes
We're aiming to have 1 more fine-tuning pass tomorrow (Augments, some Traits, smaller changes), and then ideally we're locked for the release (beyond critical bugs that appear).
The bulk of the champs/traits seem to be in a good spot for launch, but the largest concern now is the frequency/power balance of Artifact+Emblems. These systems tend to benefit reroll more than higher-cost strategies, and also depend a lot more on Augments.
We're close everyone, and thanks for the support, feedback, and patience for a unique PBE cycle.
Wanted to give a little write-up on this wisp because I saw some confusion about it in the PBE thread.
Assuming perfect RNG, the raw expected value is exactly 1 gold, and the wisp itself costs 1 gold:
T)HT)HHT)HHHT)HHHHT)If you average all possible outcomes, you get 1g back on average. So ignoring everything else, buying it has an EV of exactly 0.
Or does it?
Let
G = 10n + r, r ∈ {0, 1, ..., 9}
be your gold when the wisp is offered, and let X be the number of heads before the first tail.
Then:
P(X = k) = 2^-(k+1)
and
E[X] = 1
The wisp costs 1g, so after resolving it your gold is:
G' = G - 1 + X
Now suppose:
1 ≤ r ≤ 9
Buying the wisp cannot knock you down an interest tier in this case, because after paying the 1g you're still above the previous threshold.
To reach the next interest threshold, 10(n + 1), you need:
X ≥ 11 - r
For this geometric distribution:
P(X ≥ m) = 2^-m
So the probability that the wisp earns you at least one extra point of interest is:
2^-(11-r)
For example:
X ≥ 2, which happens 25% of the time.X ≥ 3, which happens 12.5% of the time.X ≥ 10, which happens only about 0.01% of the time.You can theoretically jump multiple interest thresholds with a sufficiently long heads streak, so below the 50g cap the exact additional interest EV is:
EV(G) = Σ[j=0 to 4-n] 2^-(11-r+10j)
for:
r = 1, ..., 9
The later terms are extremely small, though, so for normal gold totals below 50 the result is overwhelmingly determined by:
r = G mod 10
In other words: the last digit of your gold matters a lot.
| Gold before buying | Approx. Wisp EV |
|---|---|
10n + 0 |
−0.49951g |
10n + 1 |
+0.00098g |
10n + 2 |
+0.00196g |
10n + 3 |
+0.00391g |
10n + 4 |
+0.00782g |
10n + 5 |
+0.01564g |
10n + 6 |
+0.03128g |
10n + 7 |
+0.06256g |
10n + 8 |
+0.12512g |
10n + 9 |
+0.25024g |
The wisp's raw gold EV is exactly neutral: you pay 1g and get 1g back on average.
But because TFT interest is based on 10g breakpoints, its actual EV depends heavily on your current gold.
At X9 gold, buying it is quite good: you can't lose an interest tier, and you have a 25% chance to gain one, giving roughly +0.25g of additional EV.
At X0 gold, it is quite bad: spending the 1g immediately drops you an interest tier unless the first flip is heads, giving roughly −0.50g EV.
So:
Buy on X9 > X8 > X7 > ... > avoid on X0.
Fuck. Okay. The tl;dr above is missing a bit of nuance because it only considers the EV for one round and not multiple rounds.
Oh, and it also doesn't consider the possible +1g from winning, oh dear...
The problem is that in TFT, 1 gold is not always worth exactly 1 gold.
For example, compare 13g and 14g if you're purely just holding:
13 -> 19 -> 25 -> 32 -> 40 -> 49 -> 58
14 -> 20 -> 27 -> 34 -> 42 -> 51 -> 61
That one extra gold at 14 ends up being worth 3 gold by the time both lines reach max interest.
This is basically what people mean by a hidden econ interval: even if 13g and 14g earn the same interest this round, 14g reaches 20 next round while 13g only reaches 19. That changes the next interest payment, which changes the one after that, and so on.
So the wisp's real EV is better thought of as:
EV = average future value after buying - future value without buying
If gold had perfectly linear value, the wisp would still be exactly 0 EV, but sometimes the 1g you risk by buying the wisp is much more valuable than face value.
E.g. your current gold is 14g.
If you don't buy:
14 -> 20
If you buy and immediately flip tails:
14 -> 13 -> 19
You didn't lose interest on the first round, but now you're at 19 instead of 20, so you lose interest on the following round.
Under a deliberately naive model where you never spend, never win, have no streak, and just save until 50, buying the wisp at 14g is actually around -0.9g of eventual EV. So already, the simple rule of "X9 good, X0 bad" starts to fall apart.
There's another problem: win gold happens before interest is calculated.
If you're going to lose the fight:
You have a 25% chance to hit 30, with no chance of losing an interest tier. So:
EV at 29 if you lose ≈ +0.25g
But if you're going to win:
Without the wisp, the +1 win gold already takes you to 30g. With the wisp, you start at 28g, then win gold takes you to 29g.
Now if you flip tails, you've lost the 30g breakpoint. So:
EV at 29 if you win ≈ -0.50g
If your chance of winning the fight is p, the immediate-round EV is approximately:
EV ≈ 0.25 - 0.75p
Which means the wisp at 29g becomes negative EV once your chance to win is above roughly 33%. And that's still only looking at the current round. Once you include hidden intervals, current streak, win probability, and when you're planning to roll down, there isn't really a universal answer based only on your last digit.
The best we can really say in general is:
> The wisp is a 0-EV gamble on the marginal value of your current gold.
The easiest in-game heuristic is to first estimate your effective gold at the interest check:
Then look at the last digit of that effective gold:
| Effective gold | Wisp |
|---|---|
X0 |
Avoid |
X1-X5 |
Basically neutral; hidden intervals matter more |
X6 |
Slightly +EV |
X7 |
Decent |
X8 |
Good |
X9 |
Best |
Or, if you prefer a decision table:
| Current gold | Likely loss | Unsure | Likely win |
|---|---|---|---|
X0 |
Avoid | Avoid | Basically neutral |
X1-X5 |
Marginal | Marginal | Marginal |
X6 |
Slight + | Slight + | Decent |
X7 |
Decent | Decent | Good |
X8 |
Good | Very good | Best |
X9 |
Best | Avoid | Avoid |
At exactly X9, the immediate EV flips negative once you think your chance to win is above about 33%. So if your pool looks remotely even, skip it.
The other important caveat is hidden intervals. The tiny edges at X1-X6 can easily be overwhelmed by whether that 1g changes your econ path next round. I wouldn't try to optimize those from this table, but if you are certain that your game plan is to save to >50g as fast as possible:
| Last digit | 10s | 20s | 30s | 40s |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10: -.12 | 20: -.91 | 30: -.31 | 40: -.25 |
| 1 | 11: -.24 | 21: +.17 | 31: +.38 | 41: -.50 |
| 2 | 12: +.52 | 22: +.35 | 32: -.25 | 42: ~0 |
| 3 | 13: +.05 | 23: -.31 | 33: -.49 | 43: ~0 |
| 4 | 14: -.90 | 24: +.39 | 34: +.01 | 44: +.01 |
| 5 | 15: +.19 | 25: -.23 | 35: +.02 | 45: +.02 |
| 6 | 16: +.38 | 26: -.46 | 36: +.05 | 46: +.03 |
| 7 | 17: -.24 | 27: +.09 | 37: +.09 | 47: +.06 |
| 8 | 18: +.52 | 28: +.17 | 38: +.19 | 48: +.12 |
| 9 | 19: +.04 | 29: +.34 | 39: +.38 | 49: +.25 |
Estimate whether you're winning this fight. If losing, look up your current gold; if winning, look up current gold + 1. Positive = buy, negative = skip. If uncertain, average the two.
So for example:
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This is a bit of a long read so I apologize for that I wasnt expecting this to be this long.
I have recently been forcing one comp and it got me all the way to diamond 2, but for next set I really want to be able to pivot well and not force any comps so I can try to get to master.
The main problem with this that I find is what I will explain here below. I usually play fast 8 because i find I have way more success when I play fast 8 and win streak. But here is what I dont understand about “playing what the game gives you”. If i start the game and I think I am going to play a fast 8 comp, I usually want to win streak in order to perform well, usually when I lose streak and play a fast 8 comp I have a much lower chance of getting top 4. So in order to do this, I slam items to fit that playstyle and save HP. If i start slamming a sol items, for example, i fully cannot switch to something like nova miss fortune or meeple corki, and I may not even be able to switch to conduit zoe because I started leveling and might be halfway through level 6 already and have not saved any of the units i needed to hold for that reroll comp. Another thing, what if i am leveling at at 3-5 i level to 7 but then later on 2 people pivot to conduit sol before i rolled down and now im stuck with 1 sol and no morganas, i would want to pivot to conduit zoe but it is too late because that is a level 6 reroll comp and i am already level 7.
The way I would think you would do it is by not committing to a comp but committing to a playstyle, like reroll or fast 8. But theres also a problem with this. If im playing conduit sol and theres 3 people contesting me, then what am i goingnto switch to? The only other viable AP fast 8 comp is space groove nami and in order timo play that and place well you pretty much need a space groove emblem, which I most likely do not have because I thought I was going conduit a sol.
So how do you usually play a flexible game without having these problems that I am laying out here? Curious to hear how you all work through this. I think understanding this is the last thing holding me back from being a top player because when I know what I am playing and it goes well I always place high. The struggle for me is picking the right comp and being able to pivot effectively when the game gives me something different.
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Okay so im curious what the competitive TFT community has to say about this.
I am currently at Diamond 2 and my goal is to get to master by the end of set 17. But this changed very recently.
Basically, I was back and forth from high emerald 1 to high emerald 2 over a period of about a month and half and during that time I was not forcing a comp at all, I would genuinely play what I felt the game was giving me. I would have some bad games and some good games but I never put together enough good games in a row to get to Diamond.
Fast forward to a few days ago and I decided I was just going to say forget it, I know this is technically not how you are supposed to play to get to a high rank but I am going to just force a comp over and over again and see what happens. I started forcing one S tier comp and I instantly got over the hump I had been stuck at for almost 2 months.
I am now Diamond 2 41 LP and that is my highest rank ever, my original goal this set was to hit diamond, but now it is to hit master since I am climbing so quickly forcing this comp.
I am curious as to what people in this sub have to say about this? Is this climb legit, is my rank legit, do you feel like it is not well deserved since I am just forcing the same comp over and over again? Or do you feel like if it is working, it does not matter how i get there as long as i am the person playing and I am not cheating?
I feel like since I was stuck emerald 1 and now i am rapidly climbing straight through diamond, that it almost feels like this rank and this current climb is not legit. What do you think?
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If you'd like a longer rundown of the format you can grab a look here in one of our previous posts: Extensive Explanation
This event is designed to be fairly open to new players with concrete goals by using a Top 4 advances format early and then rolling into the point system later to make things feel closer to a true competitive format for more experienced players to feel more satisfied.
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I have been a starcraft 2 player before and I actually have hit master rank there and I can tell you that some spots on tft require a fairly decent APM, the most iconic is the 4-2 reroll if you attempt to replace your board on the same turn too. For me it's almost impossible to combine both and if I do, it will be really messy, a big reroll takes time, tbh a lot of time, I tried a few times to rush it and I missed important units in some cases even though they were marked, by the time I'm done, the timer is almost over and even though sometimes I manage to replace a few units, the board is a mess. Sometimes, when I play 2c slowroll and I decide to go all in and spend all of my gold due to delayed 3-stars, I fail to complete the full reroll on one turn for 62-65 gold or so, if I do of course it's better since the board already have the units that I need so I don't have to replace anything.
So, for now at least, I spend 4-1 or 4-2 to reroll and buy the units and I spend the next turn to transition, this is more smooth and after all, your board was supposed to be the strongest so it can still win, I don't think, it's the end if you miss the complete transition for one turn.
So guys, how do you handle this?
Are you supposed to pull it off in one turn? Reroll+Transition
I was wondering in the above situation if enemy number 3 assassin/fighter would always go to tank or wrap to carry or is it random if they are the same number of hexes away? Are there any pathing rules? Thanks in advance for the help aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaxdfd
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>Big patch today! Aiming for only 1-2 more of these before we lock in the first patch. We've reached the state where a lot of content can see success after the Blackthorn rework, but the meta seems a bit too polarized on certain reroll lines (which are boosted by Wisp tempo).
We also have a few more gameplay bugfixes that appeared later in he week. Such as Blackthorn giving immense amounts of Damage Amp, Luxes erroneously transforming, and a Death's Defiance being weaker than intended.
A small note on Aphelios, we're pushing him aggressively more towards Rageblade builds. This change results in more damage the more AS he has, and is an overall buff.
I'm emerald atm, I'm trying to incorporate scouting into my arsenal but tbh I don't understand how it is useful when it comes to seeing what comps are contested. Most players play the strongest board until 4-2 so it is impossible to know what they will roll for on 4-2. When I play Xayah which is my main comp right now, only like 2-3 units remain in the team after the roll and those are generic enough so it's impossible to know that I will roll for Xayah. I guess for 2cost slowroll it is easier because those comps focus on the comp units early and don't play strongest board until 3-2 although that's not impossible either. Even then you don't know for sure that someone will go for a 2c slowroll unless this is the only meta option for that specific comp.
So, let's say I want to play Xayah, how am I supposed to know that someone will contest me? it is impossible to get this information through scouting because this is a 4-2 comp only and the units are generic enough until 4-2. I will only find out after the roll.
Scouting for positioning is something that I understand better but this is useful only on later turns and even then your opponent can adjust the position on last second, so you want more of a foolproof position rather than a counter one.
If you ask me, I don't get it why scouting is important. Having some history on your opponents is probably more useful.
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While I think set 18 as a whole is quite good in terms of unit design and trait webs, I have a lot of trouble understanding why wisps/charms were brought back as a mechanic.
I would like to say I didn't play set 12 because I didn't like the charm system and chose not to play the set. Unfortunately, since Vegas tickets are on the line, I must play this set.
Despite that, I don't think wisps are a good design for a multitude of reasons.
As with fruits in set 15 and anomalies in set 13. Wisps are another aspect of the game that players are forced to learn through trial and error. This is neither fun nor a rewarding process. Unlike picking an augment, which you will have an entire game to decide the power of. A wisp is only chosen for a single round; this makes it difficult to understand if the reason why you lost a fight was that your wisp was bad or good, or even if you just picked it in a bad spot. Coupled with the fact that the other player you are facing will also have a combat wisp, it becomes even harder to gauge board strength relative to your opponent. There is also no wisp "stats" so a player can ONLY learn what is good based on spamming games or watching hours of vods.
A typical fast 9 opening requires a 7-10 streak. The addition of combat-warping wisps in the early game can make it feel incredibly frustrating to play a good opening into losing to a wisp(Loading an AD opener into someone with bramble wisp). There is already a great deal of RNG in the early game that can skew fights, but this added layer of inconsistency makes it even harder to successfully play a streak early game without getting scammed by someone.
We've already seen changes on PBE to nerf fast 9, but my main issue with early game econ wisp is that they are so narrow. Getting a lose streak wisp on a win streak is unclickable. XP wisps on a 1c reroll cannot be clicked since you don't want to level, streak wisps incentivize open forting(something that riot has tried to discourage), since you cannot control this, and you cannot afford to roll in stage 2 in most lines, you are stuck with what the game gives you leads to incredible feelsbad when the rest of the lobby gets good econ wisps and yours are unclickable.
It's extremely frustrating to go into a roll-down turn and lose 2 shop slots to a bad wisp you cannot click. This is a more minor issue, but a pet peeve of mine. I know this was a problem in set 12 but I still think its current implementation is frustrating; letting players opt out of seeing wisp for a round would be nice for this.
Of course, you can balance wisp. There is a number between 0 and 100000 dmg that makes wisps balanced. The problem is that you can't have a system be both impactful and balanced at the same time. If early-game wisps aren't impactful, then nobody would click them; if they are, then they lead to all the same problems mentioned above. Econ wisps inherently have to be more valuable than the gold paid for them; otherwise, they can't be clicked.
Wisp are an RNG mechanic that players MUST play around, but there's no way to play around them in a satisfying way. Rerolling for a different wisp will tax your shop slots; you cannot roll for a new wisp in the early game since it's never worth it to ruin early econ. The only time where wisp feel good is in the late game where you have the gold somewhat to control which combat wisp you want and even then most of the time you are clicking the first one you see, and this still leads into the problem where wisp balancing is problematic because either they are impactful enough to swing a fight (op), or not impactful enough to swing a fight(why waste gold and click?).
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