Everyone looks pretty comfortable up here. Maybe a little too comfortable.

There’s a nasty mix building around Bitcoin right now: tighter Fed policy, sticky inflation, oil above $100, high bond yields and a market still loaded with leverage.

Higher rates mean less easy liquidity, and BTC has always been extremely sensitive to liquidity conditions. Add expensive energy keeping inflation pressure alive and yields making safer assets more attractive, and the setup gets uncomfortable.

The bigger issue is leverage. Every bounce keeps pulling more longs back in. If the first important support breaks, liquidations could turn a normal pullback into something much uglier pretty fast.

Monday could be interesting.

Short from around 84,320, invalidation at 85,537, first target 83,110, final target 80,085. That is 1:3.4 reward to risk, risking about 1,210 to make about 4,150.