GameStop is already sitting on serious unrealized eBay gainz
Not saying this is exact, just throwing some napkin math out there for the group.
GameStop’s filing shows synthetic exposure to about 29.08m eBay shares through the put call pairs, with roughly 7m paid in net premium. The strikes are somewhere between about 84.74 and 114.96, but we do not know the exact weighting, so the average strike is the big missing piece.
The rough formula I’m using is:
current eBay price minus assumed average strike, multiplied by 29.08m shares, minus the 7m premium.
With eBay now around 119, the rough unrealized gainz could look something like this:
If avg strike is 85, around 980m (wtf?!)
If avg strike is 95, around 690m
If avg strike is 100, around 540m
If avg strike is 105, around 400m
If avg strike is 110, around 250m
If avg strike is near 115, still around 100m
Again, this is not realized cash and the exact number depends on the strike weighting, but the setup looks pretty wild. Whether the deal goes through or not, GameStop may already be sitting on a massive win from the trade itself. And if that gain runs through earnings, the next report could look insane.
Just imagine something like roughly 1B in quarterly revenue and reported net income also getting anywhere near that level because of those unrealized value gain. That would be absolutely nuts.
Please correct my thinkng, if i am wrong!