Por contra, la variación intertrimestral del PIB real en el 2º trimestre en nuestro pobre país fue del 0,7%, por lo me que parace factible que acabemos con un incremento interanual del 2,6%, como pronostica el Gobierno
Excerpt: The Philippine economy grew at its slowest pace in five years, expanding just 2.8 percent in the first quarter of 2026, as the country grapples with the persistent government spending slump and mounting inflation shocks.
The country’s economy, as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), decelerated from the 3.0 percent expansion recorded in the final three months of 2025.
It also significantly missed the 3.4 percent median growth projected by economists in a survey, and marked the weakest quarterly output for the country since the first quarter of 2021, when the economy contracted 3.8 percent during pandemic-era lockdowns.
Saw all those headlines about Germany passing Japan as the 3rd largest economy in 2023, so I threw the World Bank data into a chart to see what was actually going on.
Turns out it’s basically just a currency story.
In current USD, Germany did cross Japan ($5.05T vs $4.44T). But over that same period, the Yen took a massive hit, dropping from around 80 per dollar down to over 150. When you adjust for exchange rate swings using constant 2015 USD, Japan's actual output was still bigger in 2023.
Just goes to show how much headline GDP rank depends on FX markets rather than actual economic output.
Swipe, and you will see more GDP, GDP per capita, and GDP Constant US$.
A lot of the discussion around ARM today centers on its ~18% China revenue exposure (mostly royalty revenue through licensees like Samsung and SK Hynix). Ran the EPS sensitivity instead of just looking at the headline percentage: a 10% cut to that China revenue only moves EPS by about $0.01. The royalty/licensing model has enough operating leverage that revenue shocks don't translate 1:1 into earnings hits.
HPE was up almost identically (+10.0%) the same session, which points more toward broad tech/infra rotation than an ARM-specific catalyst. The AI infrastructure and custom silicon design-win narrative ("physical AI buildout" robotics, edge, data centers) is getting cited as the underlying driver.
Full writeup: https://metricshour.com/briefs/2026-07-10/
Curious if others are seeing the same EPS math or reading the exposure risk differently.
Friday's July jobs report was genuinely weak, and the market rallied to record highs on it. This is one of the more interesting macro setups in a while because the usual bad news is good news reflex is running straight into an inflation backdrop that could break it.
Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July against expectations of roughly +80,000 which is the first outright decline since February. May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, but that was driven by people leaving the workforce. Participation fell to 61.4% from 62.1% at the start of the year, and the employed count is down over 800,000 this year. Wage growth cooled to 3.2% yoy, the slowest since 2021. So underneath the headline, nearly every measure points to a softening labour market.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% last week but has been openly worried about hiking because inflation re accelerated on the 2026 oil shock and three members dissented in favour of a hike. A soft jobs print takes pressure off that hawkish bias with September hike odds falling from 55% to 40% right after the report. Lower odds of tighter policy raise the present value of future earnings, which is why rate sensitive growth names led the rally. If the labour market cools gently while inflation behaves, you get the goldilocks path with no hike, eventual cuts and a soft landing.
Two problems still remain, firstly, a labour market where the jobless rate only falls because people stop looking isn't strength, it's late cycle cooling, and earnings estimates haven't caught down to it. Citi is out of consensus calling for three cuts by January 2027 precisely because they see unemployment pushing above 4.5% soon. Second, and more immediate is inflation that hasen't actually gone anywhere. If it's still hot, the Fed could be forced to hike into a weakening labour market and would be the worst of both worlds for equities.
July CPI drops on 12 August, any hotter then expected inflation data will revive the hike narrative, lift the 2 year and pressure a market sitting at record highs. A softer print keeps the benign path alive, it's rare to get a single data point that so cleanly arbitrates between two opposite regimes, and the positioning into it looks one sided.
Does anyone have the Macro backdrop as a part of their overall philosphy or is it all noise for you guys?
Most investors read the income statement and balance sheet, but miss critical details hidden in the 10-K about where a company actually makes its money.
This guide walks through exactly how to find and analyze geographic revenue breakdowns in SEC filings, including:
• Which sections to check
• How to interpret country and region exposure
• Why geographic concentration risk matters
• Common pitfalls to avoid
Full step-by-step breakdown here:
https://metricshour.com/blog/how-to-read-a-10-k-filing-for-geographic-revenue-data-2/
Have you ever dug into the geographic revenue notes in a 10-K? Worth the effort?
If you are trying to play the Mexican economic boom (nearshoring, manufacturing shifts from China, growing middle class), buying a generic emerging markets ETF exposes you to too much global drag and currency volatility. The clinical way to play this macro shift is through US-listed equities with massive, established geographic revenue exposure south of the border.
Here is the direct SEC EDGAR data breakdown of the operators most structurally embedded in Mexico right now:
$WMT (Walmart): 40% Exposure. Retail investors treat WMT strictly as a gauge for the US consumer. At 40% Mexican revenue exposure, it is actually one of the heaviest blue-chip proxies for the Latin American consumer baseline.
$LYV (Live Nation): 10% Exposure. A massive structural play on the expanding discretionary income and live entertainment TAM in the region.
$WPC (W. P. Carey): 8% Exposure. Commercial real estate with a heavy physical footprint in Mexican industrial and retail sectors.
$CL (Colgate-Palmolive): 8% Exposure. Pure consumer staples baseline.
$MET (MetLife): 7% Exposure. Financials and insurance capital flows.
When the market talks about supply chains moving to Mexico, the capital flows directly to the operators that have already spent a decade building out the physical infrastructure there.
Data compiled via MetricsHour SEC EDGAR terminal screener.