
Lagarde at WEF: Europe’s post-war growth model is dead
ECB President Christine Lagarde’s key points at the World Economic Forum:
2,500+ global trade restrictions implemented in 2025
China now competes in ~40% of euro-area comparative advantage sectors (was ~25% early 2000s)
2025 EU energy-intensive industry electricity prices: >2× US levels, ~50% higher than China
Euro-area growth (1.5% in 2025, 0.4% q/q in Q2 2026) driven entirely by domestic demand
Stated response: deepen the single market + selective partnerships (India, Indonesia, Australia, Mexico, Mercosur). Explicit China de-risking.
Sector implications:
Relative winners: advanced manufacturing (lithography etc.), AI (firms planning 9% of 2026 investment), renewables & grids
Relative losers: energy-intensive industries and protected national champions
Genuine structural shift or standard “Europe must do better” rhetoric?