CFSv2 forecasts for Feb-Mar 2027 and a CFSv2 run from Jul 1997 valid for Dev97-Feb98
I’m interested in what you smart folks think about the consistency of what the CFSv2 runs are showing for Q1 2027. The 2mT signals continue to be astounding. I believe there is some type of (possibly) convective feedback signal that the model cannot handle and causes it to blow up surface anomalies to unwarranted levels. What are your thoughts?
Other long-lead runs like the ECMWF, NMME, and others show a similar pattern but much lower amplitude. The 500mb maps have a general look as to what I’d expect in a super Nino but that cold signal at the surface is way too far north imo.
I pulled the CFSv2 hindcast from July 1997 valid for Dec97-Feb98 and it showed something similar to this pattern but still not as intense. That’s my second image in this post.
Have a look. I’m interested in your opinions or any research you might can point me to. Thanks.
Oh, and here is what Claude thinks.
https://claude.ai/share/f30cebc0-dd1b-4d60-ae6d-96e8033c4cbc