Tried to help everyone out again and got laughed at earlier this week.
Once Bessent started buying the additional long-dated stuff, it was game over.
All you clowns doing the “remind me in 6 months” nonsense, haven’t seen anything yet.
Called it from 74 to 57 last time.
This one won’t be quite as severe but mid 60s cometh soon.
1997-98 has been touted as the strongest El Niño in at least 100 years. We are currently blowing that record up by a massively amount, with development still continuing. This is going to have significant global impacts, ranging from drought in India and Africa, flooding in Perú, flooding in the Southeast US and California, heat/drought in eastern Australia, and a very warm winter in the northern U.S. and most of Canada. But, hey, at least Atlantic hurricane numbers will be cut down significantly.
The plot above shows the subsurface temperatures on 8/9/2026 compared to how they looked on 8/9/1997, which is the benchmark year. Going to be a wild eight months coming up globally.
Truly historic event upcoming.
This event continues to crush prior years.
Also threw in the latest CPC Pentad. Nice +10C contour showing up now.
He looks like he’s absolutely miserable out there. I’ve seen pros that were grumps, but this is another level. Feel even worse for his caddie.
Our ice maker broke in our refrigerator. Made me think of this game tonight. I really liked it but hadn’t thought of it in 35 years.
I’m interested in what you smart folks think about the consistency of what the CFSv2 runs are showing for Q1 2027. The 2mT signals continue to be astounding. I believe there is some type of (possibly) convective feedback signal that the model cannot handle and causes it to blow up surface anomalies to unwarranted levels. What are your thoughts?
Other long-lead runs like the ECMWF, NMME, and others show a similar pattern but much lower amplitude. The 500mb maps have a general look as to what I’d expect in a super Nino but that cold signal at the surface is way too far north imo.
I pulled the CFSv2 hindcast from July 1997 valid for Dec97-Feb98 and it showed something similar to this pattern but still not as intense. That’s my second image in this post.
Have a look. I’m interested in your opinions or any research you might can point me to. Thanks.
Oh, and here is what Claude thinks.
https://claude.ai/share/f30cebc0-dd1b-4d60-ae6d-96e8033c4cbc
“Poof, you’re a sandwich!”