r/FluentInFinance

How much money do you consider is enough for retirement?

Bond markets are melting down right now.

The US 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.18%. We have not seen borrowing costs this high in almost 20 years.

At the same time, Japan's 30-year yield just hit 4.17%, the highest in that country's recorded history. And Japan's 10-year broke above 2.80% for the first time, ever.

Two of the world's largest bond markets. Both at historic extremes.

Japan holds roughly $1.1 Trillion in US Treasuries. If Japan starts selling those bonds to stabilize its own market, US yields go even higher.

As US yields rise, the government pays more interest on its $36 Trillion debt. To cover that interest, it borrows more. More borrowing pushes yields even higher. It's a self-feeding loop. And the Government has no real plan to break it.

I think we're entering the most aggressive surge in inflation and yields since the 1970s.

Many businesses only survived the last decade because debt was cheap. With borrowing costs exploding right now, many companies will file for bankruptcy.

This is getting ugly. We're watching the biggest financial shift since 2007.

Peter Lynch coined the term "diworsification": adding so many positions to a portfolio that you end up recreating the index, but less efficiently. More fees, more complexity, same or worse returns.

The benefits of diversification plateau after a certain point. Beyond that threshold, extra positions don't meaningfully reduce risk, they just dilute conviction. And if your holdings overlap more than you realise (multiple ETFs all heavy in the same mega-cap stocks, for example), you're less spread out than you think.

Under-diversification has its own problems, obviously. But the "more is always better" assumption is worth questioning.

Where do you draw the line?