r/GCTS

Is Starlink / SpaceX now the favourite to be the major global operator “One of the world’s largest satellite communications providers” strongly implies a major global operator, not a startup.

GCT has deepened its partnership with a huge satellite communications company.
The goal is to help roll out global 5G service faster, including in places where normal cell towers don’t work well. GCT will provide a “reference design,” which is basically a ready-made technical blueprint using its 4G and 5G chips.
The satellite company can use that blueprint to build new devices (“user equipment” — things like modems, terminals, routers, or connected devices) more quickly and cheaply.

All signs suggest this will be Globalstar / Amazon, but GCT have already announced a partnership deal with Globalstar, so the more you look into it, the more it looks like Starlink / SpaceX

GCT specifically mentions:
“direct-to-satellite applications”
“5G and 4G chipset integrations”
“next-generation user equipment”
convergence of terrestrial + satellite networks
potentially very large unit volumes
That sounds less like traditional satellite terminals and more like mass-market cellular/satellite connectivity devices.

Starlink is aggressively building direct-to-cell capability.
It needs massive amounts of low-cost user equipment and connectivity hardware.
GCT specializes in integrated 4G/5G modem chipsets for routers, hotspots, and CPE devices, exactly the sort of hardware ecosystem Starlink could leverage.
Qualcomm and MediaTek already dominate premium handset modems, so a smaller specialist like GCT fits better in fixed wireless / satellite terminals.

GCTS seems to have a niche with the big players

Do you think dilution is likely in the next few days/weeks?
Interested in hearing both bullish and bearish views.

Just joined the community and looking forward to constructive conversation from all. I was early in with GSAT and did copious amounts of research to know it was a HR waiting to happen. Walked away with good coin from it. Looking forward the next place to park some money.

Stumbled across GCTS via their partnership with GSAT. I see they provide the 2 way chips for GSAT’s RM2000 (something) product. After some initial research, I see that GCTS fills the void outside of where QCOM runs town (also made a lot with QCOM).

GCTS has a solid position with GSAT and now Amazon and could be primed for tremendous growth as Amazon Leo rolls out and starts leveraging their stronger satellite network and newly acquired spectrum (highly valuable and usable).

Outside of drones, potential Ring and Echo products, and low connectivity solutions outside of cell network, what would be the best use cases this “3 way” partnership could prosper?

Just listened to GCTS earning call and love the adjusted outlook and trends. Still early but am a risk taker. Any articles or groups that love to share their insights and thoughts that you could share? Just looking to take in all information I can, similar to what I’ve done with GSAT. GLTA!!

Note:

• 50k workers is 40% of Samsung's South Korean workforce
• $DRAM holdings = 20% Samsung, 27% SK Hynix
• Few days later, Samsung was granted court injunction against imminent strike action

Discuss:

• Bullish or bearish for MU, SNDK, WDC, STX?
• Supply squeeze or demand slowdown for memory prices?
• Short-term shock or longer-term pricing catalyst?

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Source 1: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/samsung-strike-looms-why-analysts-say-to-watch-mu-as-memory-fabs-warm-down-4692589

Samsung Electronics has entered emergency management mode as up to 50,000 employees prepare to strike for 18 days starting May 21, according to Mizuho TMT Sector Specialist Jordan Klein. The company has begun a "warm down" of its memory fabs at the Pyeongtaek facility to prevent equipment damage during a potential stoppage.

Samsung management and its union remain far apart on negotiations, with the union demanding a 15% share of operating profits and removal of bonus caps. The company’s stock dropped 8.6% on Friday.

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Source 2: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/samsung-starts-winding-down-chip-producton-six-days-before-planned-18-day-strike

According to the Seoul Economic Daily, daily losses could approach 3 trillion won ($2 billion) if fabrication lines are paused entirely. Professor Kwon Seok-joon at Sungkyunkwan University previously estimated that the 18-day walkout alone would cause 10 trillion to 17 trillion won ($17 billion) in direct losses, while JPMorgan has projected total losses of up to 43 trillion won ($28 billion) when factoring in labor costs and extended production disruption.

https://preview.redd.it/0v7difz13p1h1.png?width=1594&format=png&auto=webp&s=2381d62cc48e775706cf6c61547c424944885a6a

https://preview.redd.it/os7g9o043p1h1.png?width=1583&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f7583831bb7eb16dbcec10e6392f8b2a588eaed

GCT is getting noticed and the story of their involvement with "one of the largest satellite communications companies" with "low millions" in chip volume can't be ignored by Wall Street.

It's worth noting that any use case that requires "low millions" of chip orders per year is undoubtedly a consumer facing application. So, think Amazon LEO or Starlink as examples.

So what's going to happen as we move forward? Where will GCTS be in over the next 6 months to a year?

Here's my thoughts. As always, this is not investment advice and I recommend everyone do your own research:

1. Short sellers will try to attack the company and characterize it as a fraud or fake. Shorts love to demonize companies with operations outside USA as a scam. However, this will be a great opportunity in my opinion, because their characterization will be completely misplaced. GCT has orders with Alphachips that coordinates and readies demand with Samsung Foundry. Additionally, reputable analyst firms ( B. Riley and HCW ) have come out with $3-4 targets even with known potential dilution. Lastly the company is listed on the NYSE, notoriously one of the hardest exchanges, most stringent, in terms of listing requirements.

2. GCT will almost certainly get additional orders beyond what the analysts know today. This is why I'm on record as saying $10-12 is possible by EOY.

3. The company needs capital to fund initial order placements with the Foundaries and for R&D expenses ( i.e. working with OEMs to integrate the chip orders for the reference platform agreement ). So dilution might occur. Another possibility is that a prepayment option occurs. If the latter than dilution is off the table and the shàre price targets by analysts could be adjusted upwards.

4. At some point the satcom company will become known or announced. I'm on record as saying I believe it is Amazon + Globalstar. But there has also been collaboration with Iridium. I think it is probably not Iridium, simply because the order volumes are too large.

5. If I'm right that it's Amazon, then this chip company and it's tech is likely an integral part of a consumer facing use case. This strategic position means Amazon needs to ensure GCT doesn't fall into a competitor's hands. This sets up the potential for an acquisition.

Much of my anslysis is based logical dedication and reasoning through facts that are publicly available. Could I be wrong? Yes. I could.

Additionally, there always risks. Noting is 100%. A Korean war on the peninsula would , could impact the bull case. A sudden tech innovation rendering modem chips obsolete would devastating consequences. There are many others.

But the platform reference agreement with the satcom provider was a definitive point. It shifted GCT from being a struggling chip company to being a core part of large use case and ecosystem of OEMs. Now...we just wait to see what that use case is.

Why is it pumping so hard?

Since 11th May, they earned approx 17.8 millions on ATM! Probably for the huge order made by sat company!

My take on GCT Semiconductor: I got in thinking it’s just a small semiconductor play maybe they land some contracts, clean up revenue, and grind their way up. Then they drop a satellite partnership and suddenly I’m imagining them personally flying up there to install chips mid-orbit. Fast forward a bit and somehow every device on Earth is running GCTS silicon, they’re hosting earnings calls from space, and analysts are still asking if $2 is “strong resistance.” Then they casually announce “Phase 2,” which apparently means building infrastructure on the moon because Earth latency is “suboptimal.” Revenue goes vertical, they’ve got lunar WiFi in beta, and the stock still dips because guidance didn’t explicitly mention Jupiter.

Next thing you know, they pivot into biotech by accident because their chips got so advanced they started fixing human cells, and now they’re out here low-key curing cancer between firmware updates. Wall Street’s reaction? “We’d like more clarity on margins.” By Phase 3 they’ve rebranded into a multi-planetary infrastructure company, installed something in the sun for “energy optimization,” and are basically running Mars’ financial system. Meanwhile I’m just sitting here holding shares like yeah… I bought this at $1.67 because I liked the setup, didn’t realize I was investing in the future rulers of the solar system. Anyway that’s how I imagine them taking over and being bigger than nvidia and realistically a low shot for price target is 4590.

All jokes aside i bought like 15390 shares at 1.67 hopefully it goes up. Also they look promising with revenue increase in future and partnerships and they finally confirmed there order of a bunch of chips for 23 bil Korean won. Headquarters in Cali, production in Korea at Samsung I believe.

Did I get this wrong?

When I see AXTI doing a x75 in one year, is is reasonable to think that GCTS (if it continues to prove that their performance is groing) can do at least a x10 until end of the year ?