r/IndiaWeather

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Dhanbad can be pretty lekin mere aankh se dekho

Follow me for more such useful information regarding weather #imd #monsoon

Monsoon info hownit arrives and retreats and some facts about it if u like it or not tell me in comments

Happy independence day everyone to all my weather enthusiast buddies 🙏🙏

Captured on Delhi to Bhopal route. Plus, its continuously raining here in Bhopal since last 3-4 days

1st Slide: Super Enno Chart officially crosses + 2.0 C mark and we will see its effect into mid-august and September where monsoon will be hit really hard especially N, NW India, South India, Western Ghats while NE India will get good rains and Central India Might get below-normal rains, this will drive the Monsoon deficit even lower.

2nd Slide: IOD has officially become positive with +0.63 C this enhances the SWM season sadly no one can survive the wraith of El-nino suppression over Indian subcontinent so IOD cannot completely offset el Nino though it might help offset some of it, but long-term predictions still look bleak.

Tougher Times ahead!! those who were saying Indian Monsoon dominated El-nino well it never won

Source: https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/influences/graphs/index.rnino.shtml?index=iod&period=weekly

1. Heavy rain continues across coastal OD and WB on Thu.

2. Spells of heavy rain shift inland toward JH, CT, and N UP on Fri.

3. Widespread heavy downpours will affect CT and MP on Sat.

4. Very heavy rain persists over central MP and parts of NE India on Sun.

#monsoon #heavyrain #mp #od #weather

Source:
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_monsoon?base_time=202608010000&index_type=All%20India%20Rainfall

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202608090000&projection=opencharts_southern_asia&valid_time=202609210000

1st Slide: It shows Long range Ensemble forecast for All India Rainfall and it shows less rainfall in the last months of monsoon, while rain picking up later in November and December overlapping with NE Monsoon season for South India hence as of now entire India will see less rainfall while during NE Monsoon South India will see good rainfall and cyclones possibly.

2nd Slide: each photo shows precipitation anomaly for 1 week starting from 10 August to 14 Sept
to me it looks like NE India and Indo Gangetic plains will see good rain especially NE India while rest of India will see less rainfall.

Winter rains looks normal to good for Himalayan region in India till the end of this year, and good rainfall is forecasted for the Himalayan regions in the upcoming 2 weeks due to monsoon axis shifting towards foothills as there's no low pressure dragging it towards central India. El nino has always been shown to increase winter rains over north india particularly Himalayan region so following the trend Himalayan region might see good rainfall but that's a long stretch since there's still time for core winter months i.e. more than 5 months so take it with a pinch of salt but generally saying good rainfall in winter months and weak rainfall in monsoon except these 2 upcoming weeks.

remember this one fact if there's no system, then monsoon axis will give good rain in ganga plains and Himalayas generally, also Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh will see good rain towards leeward side since monsoon flow weakens in absence of system that allows sea breeze interaction and slowing of westerlies allowing evening thunderstorms.

though some good spells are forecasted for western ghats and NW India in upcoming 1 week after that looks tough.

4th Slide: El Nino will peak around Oct-November and it will be the time to see if it can surpass the 2015 strongest el nino record

3rd Slide: IOD will cross +1.0C and will peak around Sep-October which are last months of monsoon, and IOD has been associted with creating northwards travelling BSISO/MISO waves that might give rainfall as it passes through the subcontinent giving good rain especially in western ghats though need to see if the wave train even forms or not in first place

Forecast is based on ECMWF model and views are personal follow IMD for detailed info

Source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4

Atp I'm damn sure this is going to be the strongest el Nino in recorded history mark my words, it has already crossed +2.68C and the highest ever recorded was 2015 +3.01C, i remember 2015 was a flood year for south India what do you think will the extreme el Nino feed the NE monsoon to its peak causing another flood year for South? or do you think it will be an exception....for now monsoon deficit + Strong NE monsoon looks very likely if this happens, we will loose from 2 sides.

Btw this means guaranteed drought for North India, acc to IMD definition though sporadic rainfall will happen everywhere across country but that itself cannot refill the deficit.

Tell me your opinion i have tried to post in different manner this time in comparison to previous one people didn't like my previous way of posts tell should I continue in this way #weather facts

Heavy rain 🌧🌧 at the moment! Very nice cold and cozy atmosphere stay alert while touching electric poles.

This is an isolated thunderstorm and you can clearly see where it is dumping rain and where it's not. The boundary between cold and warm front are clearly visible

Well, no thunderstorm activity but watching it grow was mesmerising.