Github Repo-https://github.com/suhas2090/StockmarketDB
Visit site-https://suhas2090.github.io/StockmarketDB/

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Built this as a CA aspirant inbetween exam and results.(NO BACKGROUND IN CODING)

There are flaws — it's a side project, not a professional terminal. Some data relies on free APIs that can be flaky, NSE data is only available during market hours, and the calculations are simplified estimates. Don't trade based on this alone.

Would love feedback from this community.

NOTE :THIS IS NOT A PUBLIC SITE AND IS NOT A ADVERTISEMENT .ITS JUST A PERSONAL PROJECT

TL;DR: PhonePe's core product (UPI) generates almost zero direct revenue - zero MDR is a policy choice, not a temporary inefficiency. The IPO is reportedly largely OFS which means that existing investors are exiting, little to no fresh capital for the company. Valuation already reset from $15B to $9–10.5B as per Reuters. NPCI's 30% market share cap is still live and would force PhonePe to shed a third of its volume if enforced. The monetization story is real but still evolving.

Been digging deep into the PhonePe IPO and I think most discussions are missing the actual core issue.

Everyone focuses on the scale:

• 700M+ registered users
• 50M+ registered merchants
• 47 - 48% UPI market share
• Walmart backing
• Potential $9–15B IPO valuation

But the most important fact is this: the core product generates almost no direct revenue.

UPI operates under zero MDR. That's a policy choice, not a temporary market inefficiency.

So every transaction PhonePe processes increases:

• habit
• engagement
• merchant reach
• infrastructure relevance

…but not necessarily earnings.

The most-used product is also the least monetiszable one.

That's not a bug in the business model. That's the architecture.

The framing most people get wrong

Most fintech IPOs ask: "Can this company grow fast enough?"

PhonePe asks a different question: "Can a company that already became infrastructure convert that position into durable monetization?"

PhonePe has already solved distribution, trust, scale, and frequency.

What it hasn't fully solved yet is monetization at the scale its user base implies.

That's why the valuation debate became much more complicated between late 2025 and early 2026.

The numbers

Metric	Detail
FY24 Operating Revenue	₹5,064 Cr
FY25 Operating Revenue	₹7,115 Cr
FY25 Net Loss	₹1,727 Cr
FY25 Adjusted Profit (ex-ESOP)	₹630 Cr
Last Private Valuation	$14.5B (Oct 2025)
Jan 2026 IPO Expectation	$15B
Reuters reported (Mar 2026)	$9–10.5B

Revenue growing 40% YoY. Losses narrowing. ESOP-adjusted, the business turned profitable in FY25 for the first time. Direction is improving. But the path to fully reported profitability is still long.

The IPO twist most retail coverage completely missed

Early reporting assumed PhonePe would raise fresh capital through a standard IPO structure.

That's reportedly not what's happening.

January 2026 reports suggested the IPO may largely be an OFS (Offer For Sale):

• Walmart reduces stake (~9%)
• Tiger Global exits fully
• Microsoft exits fully
• Little to no fresh capital goes into PhonePe itself

That changes the interpretation significantly.

A fresh issue funds growth. An OFS primarily provides liquidity to existing investors.

So the question is no longer: "Will this IPO help PhonePe expand?"

It becomes: "Is the exit price fair for the business as it exists today?"

That's a very different underwriting conversation.

The Walmart overhang nobody is talking about

Tiger Global and Microsoft reportedly exiting fully actually simplifies things.

Walmart is more complicated.

Even after dilution, Walmart may still retain ~63% ownership post listing.

Public markets won't just price what's being sold now. They'll also price the possibility of future sell downs.

Institutional investors will care a lot about lock-in structure, future secondary sales, and long term ownership intent.

That overhang matters more than most retail discussions acknowledge.

How PhonePe actually plans to make money

Not from UPI directly. UPI is the distribution layer. The monetization thesis sits underneath it.

Insurance
Probably the most mature vertical. Commission income on premium. Natural fit for a high-frequency payments platform.

Lending
Highest-margin business - personal loans, merchant loans, BNPL. Also the most regulated. RBI scrutiny around digital lending has already tightened fintech economics materially.

Wealth and broking
PhonePe is directly competing with Groww, Zerodha, and Upstox through Share.Market, WealthDesk, and OpenQ. Intense competition and relatively thin margins.

Indus Appstore
Long-duration strategic bet. Not meaningful revenue today. But if India's regulatory stance toward app-store concentration tightens further, this becomes a structurally interesting asset over time.

PhonePe-SBI Credit Card
Launched April 2026. Card economics are structurally more monetizable than UPI rails - this matters.

The cross-sell potential is genuinely large.

The problem is conversion visibility.

We still don't have clean data on how effectively PhonePe converts payment users into profitable financial-services customers.

The regulatory risk the market still underestimates

NPCI proposed a 30% cap on UPI market share for any single player.

PhonePe is at 47–48%.

The proposal has been deferred multiple times, most recently to December 2026. It has never been formally withdrawn.

If enforced aggressively, PhonePe may need to shed close to a third of its transaction volume. That directly weakens distribution, engagement, and cross-sell potential - the exact things supporting the financial services monetization thesis.

And this is increasingly becoming competitive, not just regulatory.

April 2026 reports suggested Amazon and Meta were pushing for stronger enforcement around UPI concentration rules - platforms with their own payments ambitions now have direct commercial skin in the game.

The user reach justifying the valuation is inseparable from the dominance a cap would constrain.

The Paytm shadow

Every institutional investor evaluating PhonePe will run some version of the Paytm comparison. Hard to avoid.

Paytm listed at a big premium in November 2021, crashed hard, and the RBI-Paytm Payments Bank crisis in early 2024 fundamentally changed how Indian public markets price fintech scale, regulatory risk, monetization visibility, and profitability timelines.

PhonePe is cleaner strategically, more coherent operationally, and stronger on UPI relevance.

But the market is unlikely to completely remove the fintech regulatory discount. That discount got priced in for a reason.

Where things stand

• Confidential DRHP filed: September 2025
• IPO paused: March 2026 (market conditions cited)
• Revised timeline: not announced

And the valuation conversation already moved materially before a single share traded publicly:

$14.5B private reference → $15B IPO expectation → Reuters reporting $9–10.5B discussions

That's a 40% compression at the starting line.

My take

PhonePe already solved something extremely difficult: distribution at national scale.

700M users. Massive merchant reach. Deep behavioural habit. That's real and not easily replicable.

The unresolved question is whether that distribution converts into durable earnings strong enough to justify a large public market valuation — one that has already reset 40% before listing.

That's what the IPO will ultimately test.

Curious what this sub thinks:

Does PhonePe eventually become a high-margin financial ecosystem built on top of UPI infrastructure?

Or does zero-MDR structurally cap how profitable this model can become?

Not investment advice. Do your own research.

Market Vibe: Short Sided Continuation, Expanded Regime

Trade Structure

• Signal Ticker: NIFTY
• Traded Instrument: NIFTY Futures
• Entry Structure Futures: 1 leg, 2 lot each
• Capital Reserved: ₹4,15,000
• Capital Utilised: ₹1,74,000

May ROI: 21.1%

Entry Time: 9:16 AM after confirmation

Algo was in expanded zone, short trade was taken and expected gap down continuation but we hit SL. I guess this is what I was also waiting for that the algo goes into the negative territory and we can now double the lot size. Chances were 2% but we were long overdue for a SL hit. Regime is really volatile might tweak a few things here and there but here we are.

I dont think this requires a verified PnL but if it does, its available in my last post which is in continuation.

My problem was not really about picking stocks.

Looking back I see that I lost money for reasons.

These reasons include:

* entering a trade late

* making decisions based on how I felt

* changing my plan in the middle of a trade

* following what is popular instead of doing what I know works

At the time I thought I was making good decisions.

Later did I understand that I was mostly acting on instinct I was not really thinking things through.

The thing that really changed my approach to trading was realizing this.

I am curious to know what mistake made you change the way you trade the most.

What was the mistake that made you think about trading, in a way I mean what was the mistake that changed your approach to trading.

Mine is checking my profit and loss way often after I enter a trade.

When I have a plan I still watch every small change, in the market like it will make a difference.

Most of the time it just makes me feel more emotional and leads to making decisions.

I am curious what habit do other traders struggle to stop doing even after they know it is harmful?

Do you believe there is more downside from here?

The other data points that we can look at are:

- Corporate India Earnings Growth (You will be surprised to see the pessimism even after the results)

- The RSI on the Weekly/Monthly Chart (RSI also has a support and resistance, after all it is the mood)

- The Bounce Back of the IT sector.

Avg pricing are :

HDFC : 772

HUL : 2275

Cipla : 1303

Infosys : 1117

MOIL : 306

VB : 494

ICICI : 1242

Power Grid Corp : 307

IRFC : 102

Kalyan Jewellers : 363

GAIL : 162

Also I thought of purchasing stocks which are at a discount but have a good future , so do rate the portfolio

Which sector should I enter further and which stocks should I go for ??

Should I buy HAL cuz it's at a discount and defence is a bit bullish ig or should I see the Oil and Minerals sector ?? Drop some of your recommendations...

I used to think that revenge trading was about quickly getting into another trade after I lose one.

Now I think it actually starts in my mind a lot earlier than that.

The moment I start thinking that I need to make back the money I lost my way of thinking about trades changes.

I become less patient. I try to force trades to happen and suddenly I think every little move in the market is a good opportunity to trade.

Most of the time this just leads to me making worse trades.

I am curious to know how other people clear their minds after they have a loss or a bad day in the market, with their trades specifically with revenge trading.

I want to know what people do to avoid revenge trading after they lose money.

A pattern I see is:

* When I spot a setup I hesitate a lot at first.

Then when the price moves in the direction I expected I feel more confident to enter.

This is strange because the risk versus reward is usually worse at that point.

It seems I trust seeing the price move more than my analysis.

I am trying to find a balance, between being patient and not hesitating much.

Do you guys enter a trade early even if you are not sure or do you wait until the price move feels confirmed?

I haven't seen much out there for the ladies.

Just need some guidance on what to keep n what to sell as stock are like worst state. Please help….

So I have invested in stocks as seen since 2 years not of any profit just MDL has given some, rest for MFs I took out around 1Lakh as in emergency that is what I’m happy about that it helped me stay in good condition. Rest still want to have a diversified and stable portfolio so that Risk is manageable.

Need serious advice on my MF and Stocks M 28

Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/business/commodities/story/rupee-hits-all-time-low-breaches-96-for-1st-time-against-us-dollar-2912254-2026-05-15

So I added a "Narrative" view to my open-source trading assistant (OpenMTOps). Instead of numbers, it outputs labeled sentences describing what the chain is actually doing at that moment. It works for intraday & is real-time based on websocket.

Here's what each label means:

DIVERGE

This fires when spot moves one way but PE (or CE) premium moves the other way. For example: spot +0.05% but 75,100 PE premium jumped 2.9% with IV spiking from 13.8% → 16.6%. That's not hedging noise, rather that's someone aggressively buying puts despite spot holding. The label tells you the strike, the price move, and the IV jump so you can decide if it's worth tracking.

WALL / FLOOR

Finds the highest OI strike on CE side (resistance) and PE side (support) and tells you exactly how far spot is from each. "CE wall at 75,000 with 68.73L OI, spot is 128 pts below" is more useful mid-session than hunting for it manually.

REGIME

Tracks average IV compression or expansion across the whole chain since session open. "Average CE IV compressed 15.3% → 10.7% (-30.5%)" means premium sellers are winning and a directional move is likely. It also tells you if IV is stable across strikes (writers holding positions) or diverging (one side getting hit).

CLUSTER

Looks for coordinated fresh writing or unwinding across multiple strikes simultaneously. "Widespread fresh writing on PE side across 74,600 / 74,700 / 74,800 / 74,900 / 75,000 / 75,100 / 75,200" is a very different signal than a single strike getting written. Institutional positioning often shows up here first.

Below the bullets, there are CE and PE Time vs IV charts per strike so you can see the IV trajectory for each strike through the session and visually confirm what the narrative is telling you.

The whole thing runs locally. No server, no subscription, no data leaving your machine. You need a Dhan account for live data (free API). Stack is Flask + DhanHQ WebSocket + SQLite for candles.

Repo link on the profile.

For those who've built similar chain readers curious what signals you watch that aren't covered here. PCR and max pain are already in the backend, thinking about creating gamma exposure next.

One thing I have noticed is that after a couple of losses in a row I stop trusting my good trading setups.

Trades that I would normally take suddenly start looking very risky to me.

Then I do one of two things:

* I skip the trade completely

*. I enter late after the trading move already starts

And usually those trades end up working, which makes it even more frustrating for me.

It is weird how quickly confidence changes my decision making in trading.

Do you guys reduce the position size after losses take a break, from trading or just continue trading with the same trading strategy?

Anyone invested? ☠️

Crazy retailers trap!

M pattern breakdown happened already.

3200 seems important level now!

What say?

Disclaimer: Not giving any buy/sell recommendations only sharing for educational purpose