The Trump administration unveiled plans to eliminate 702 federal regulations in its largest deregulatory push yet.
The proposal targets environmental reviews, energy efficiency standards, and DEI-related rules, with the White House projecting $1.5 trillion in economic savings from the sweeping rollback.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins said Trump Accounts are about “savings and investing for the long term,” giving children a chance to “own a piece of the rock.”
He said the goal is to give every child “a stake in the game” and teach them how markets and free enterprise actually work.
Quick answer: Gold fell from an all time high of $5,595 on January 29, 2026 to roughly $4,037 by late June, a decline of nearly 30 percent, after the US-Israel-Iran war shut down the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices to a wartime peak near $120 a barrel. The oil spike pushed inflation higher, forced the Fed to abandon its 2026 rate cut plan, strengthened the dollar, and lifted real yields, the exact combination that breaks gold's bull thesis. The result is the largest bearish engulfing candle gold has ever printed on the quarterly chart.
Now for the long answer, bare with me, this is why I gave a short answer:
First, lets learn about the history of gold and then we are going to breakdown the drivers making gold go lower:
*How Gold Reached Its $5,600 All Time High*
Gold entered 2026 on the back of its best year since 1979. Central banks had spent four straight years buying bullion at roughly double the pace of the prior decade, real yields were falling, and the dollar was under pressure. By late January, gold had pushed to an all time high near $5,600 an ounce, a parabolic move that left even bullish institutions scrambling to raise targets.
Then, the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran under what became known as Operation Epic Fury, killing Iran's Supreme Leader and triggering an active regional war. Iran responded with missile barrages on Israeli cities and US bases across the Gulf, and the conflict expanded into Lebanon as Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel.
On March 4, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and threatened to attack any ship attempting to pass through it. The strait is the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and a similar share of global LNG, and the closure became, in the words of the International Energy Agency, the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
*Why Gold Crashed: The Oil to Gold Rotation Explained*
This is the pivot point that defines the entire quarter. In the first days of the war, gold did what it always does in a geopolitical shock: it spiked as a safe haven. But within weeks, the trade flipped. The story stopped being about fear and started being about inflation, and that distinction changed everything for gold.
Brent crude surged 10 to 13 percent to around $80 to $82 a barrel within days of the conflict starting, and by late April it had rocketed to nearly $120 a barrel, a wartime peak that represented the largest sustained oil rally in more than three decades. For comparison, even the 1990-91 Gulf War, which knocked out Iraqi and Kuwaiti supply simultaneously, only pushed oil to around $40 a barrel.
That oil spike did something gold bulls did not expect. Instead of reinforcing the safe haven bid, it became the single biggest headwind to the gold trade. Energy costs ripped higher, CPI and PPI prints came in hot, and the market repriced the entire interest rate path. The Fed trimmed its 2026 rate cut projections from two cuts down to one, citing producer inflation that came in well above consensus, and signaled that the Hormuz driven oil spike was creating inflation persistence that prevented easing.
The 4 Fundamental Drivers Behind Gold's 2026:
The Fed turned hawkish instead of dovish. The entire 2025 gold rally was built on the assumption that the Fed would keep cutting. Instead, persistent energy driven inflation forced the committee to hold, and markets are now pricing real hike risk into year end, which is the single most damaging input for a non yielding asset like gold.
The dollar strengthened. The Dollar Index climbed toward 99.9 as rate cut expectations were pushed out, making gold more expensive for buyers outside the US and slowing marginal demand at exactly the moment positioning was already stretched.
Real yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.2 percent, lifting the opportunity cost of holding a zero yield asset like gold just as the broader macro backdrop turned more hostile.
Leveraged positioning unwound. After a parabolic run to $5,600, speculative length was historically extreme. Goldman Sachs framed the initial March selloff as a leveraged positioning unwind rather than a fundamental break in the structural bull case, a view that held up through the spring drawdown.
It is worth being clear about what has not broken. Central bank demand has not vanished. The World Gold Council reported central banks bought 244 tonnes in the first quarter alone, up 17 percent quarter over quarter, while total Q1 demand including OTC activity reached 1,231 tonnes worth a record 193 billion dollars. Bar and coin demand actually rose 42 percent to 474 tonnes in Q1, the second highest quarterly total ever recorded, suggesting physical buyers stepped in rather than pulled back as prices fell. That is the tension defining this quarter: a structural long term bull case that remains largely intact, colliding with a short term macro regime that has turned sharply against the trade.
The push follows Trump’s disclosures, which reportedly showed over $600 MILLION in 2025 income tied to $TRUMP.
Gillibrand is also facing scrutiny after reports that her son raised funding for a 'perpetual futures exchange' backed by Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen.
The platform doesn't intend to use crypto or blockchain.
Every time the Fed announces its decision, the headlines are predictable:
But is it really that simple?
A few things I've been thinking about:
1. A rate hike isn't automatically bearish.
Markets usually react to surprises, not the rate decision itself. A widely expected 25 bps hike can have little impact, while an unchanged rate with a hawkish statement can move markets much more.
2. Higher US rates don't always mean FIIs will exit India.
Foreign investors compare risk-adjusted returns. If India's earnings, growth, and macro outlook remain attractive, capital can still flow in despite higher US yields.
3. Over the long run, domestic factors matter more.
Corporate earnings, RBI policy, inflation, fiscal policy, and domestic liquidity have a much bigger influence on Indian markets than a single Fed meeting.
History is a good reminder:
Fast forward to June 2026. The Fed kept rates unchanged and signalled that inflation is easing but isn't fully under control. Markets interpreted it as "peak rates are probably behind us," but not an immediate pivot to cuts.
That could support:
But risks remain if US inflation picks up again or the dollar strengthens.
Personally, I think the biggest change over the last decade is India's domestic investor base. SIP flows and DIIs seem to absorb a lot more foreign selling than they used to.
Do you think India is becoming less dependent on the Fed, or do Fed decisions still drive our markets more than domestic fundamentals?
According to President Trump’s annual financial disclosure released this week, he reported approximately $1.4 billion in income from cryptocurrency related ventures in 2025.
This includes significant earnings from World Liberty Financial (a crypto project linked to Trump and his sons) and royalties from Trump branded meme coins.
Trump has stated there is nothing illegal or wrong with these earnings, noting that he does not directly manage the businesses and that presidents are generally exempt from certain conflict-of-interest laws that apply to other federal officials. Critics have raised ethics concerns due to the overlap with his administration’s pro-crypto policies. reuters.com
Official Source:
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – The Employment Situation – June 2026
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm (released July 2, 2026)
He also disclosed stakes in companies like Bitcoin miner-turned-AI-compute firm Coreweave.
@nikhileshde reports.
OpenAI has proposed giving the US government a roughly 5% stake in the company, according to the Financial Times.
The discussions are part of broader talks between OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and the Trump administration about the government potentially taking equity stakes in major AI companies. The proposal is linked to OpenAI’s earlier idea of a “Public Wealth Fund” that would allow the public to share in the economic benefits of AI development.
No final agreement has been reached.
Source:
Financial Times report: https://www.ft.com/content/8559a3f9-86de-4a1c-8a75-6623e83e6a00
Warren Buffett reportedly skipped his usual June donation to the Gates Foundation for the first time in two decades.
The pause comes as he waits for a review into the foundation’s past links to Jeffrey Epstein.
He said he had not spoken with Bill Gates since the Epstein files were released.
Buffet has given roughly $48B in Berkshire shares since 2006 as part of his “lifetime” pledge.
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The Trump family’s crypto ventures have reportedly delivered $2.3 billion to Trump and affiliated entities, according to Reuters.
The same ventures have created a similar-sized loss for investors, raising fresh scrutiny over the family’s growing web of financial side deals.
President Trump says "Communism is very easy to sell.. I'll be honest, I think I'll be the GREATEST communist in history" "I'd give free rent.. Ladies and Gentlemen from now on, you don't have to pay for rent"
Question..... are you also making profits in thesame as Mr. president ?
He then warned that “the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist” if escalation continue
The COT of the week shows that there are many shorts on the futures on es, also US launched massive strike on Iran and if it wasn’t enough an insider of trump with 100% win rate just opened a short on es before market open with a value of 70,000,000.00. I was finishing writing this post and a new comes out saying that FED WILL INJECT
$6,637,000,000.00 INTO THE ECONOMY RIGHT BEFORE THE U.S. MARKET OPENS To prevent a brutal market crash next week. Something big is coming next week so me personally I’m not trading on Monday