¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡ Regarding what Deutsche Bank said recently... Well, apparently ES8 sales reached 8,900 units in June... a number that could be interpreted as a slowdown, but we'll have to see if that's actually the case. According to the bank, several buyers have preferred to wait for the launch of the five-seater ES8, and it's also possible that there has been some cannibalization of sales from its "big brother," the ES9.

The company also mentions that this year, the gross margin attributed to other income (BaaS - Battery as a Service, Software and Subscriptions (SaaS), Ancillary Sales and After-Sales, etc.) will reach 20%. This improves the overall gross margin. In Q1, ES8 sales represented 54.14% of the total 83,465 vehicles delivered. Well, it's very difficult to expect to match that. In Q2, we would have 33,395 ES8s and about 11,000 ES9s. Taking the average selling price (ASP) of all three versions, 11,000 ES9s would be equivalent to selling about 15,000 ES8s. In a sort of cumulative total, that would give us about 49,000 ES8s for Q2. Therefore, the ASP for Q2 wouldn't be that far off from what was achieved in Q1. In Q2, it would represent 46% of total sales. The ASP in Q1, with that 54% for ES8s, was $39,570 per vehicle. Taking the company's average estimate that 70% of customers acquire their vehicles with BaaS, this would give an average selling price (ASP) for the ES8 of approximately $49,000 USD... In short... Approximate numbers for Q2 and a comparison with the previous two quarters:

Q4: $36,215 USD

Q1: $39,570 USD

Q2: $37,900 USD (estimated).

Decrease: $1,667 USD per vehicle (-4.2%).

Approximate vehicle revenue, $4.08 billion. To that, we would have to add other revenue that could be around $400-450 million... In Q4, where NIO earned $48 million in profit, the average revenue per vehicle (ASP) was $36,215. In Q2, there were 107,658 deliveries, which is 17,150 fewer sales compared to Q4, but the ASP is $1,700 higher per vehicle. Let's assume this is the revenue, which does not include other income. Let's take $420 million, which is an average of the other revenue from Q4 and Q1. This would bring the total to $4.5 billion in gross revenue. Operating expenses Q4/Q1: rigid cost structure. SG&A + R&D

Q4: $795.5M USD

Q1: $780.3M USD

Therefore, we also use this Opex for our estimate, which showed almost no variation in the last two quarters, Q4/Q1. With an estimated gross margin of 18% on revenue, that gives us $810M. Net profit could be around $30 million. As Deutsche Bank said, right at the break-even point. Each percentage point improvement in the gross margin would be about $45 million, which, less depreciation, would go towards net profit.

The conclusion of all this is that if the company maintains these operating costs and can continue optimizing the business, as it is in fact doing, even within this sales volume range of 40,000 monthly sales, to achieve favorable objectives it still depends on models like the ES8/ES9. That is, on models that can support an average selling price (ASP) that doesn't depreciate. Let's assume it manages to sell those 250,000 units in the second half of the year that we projected, maintaining this ASP of $38,000. This adds $900 million to the "other income" category and maintains a total gross margin of 19%. Let's assume an operating expense (Opex) of $1.5 billion for the entire semester. That would be approximately $10.4 billion in gross income, with a gross margin of $1.976 billion. From that, we subtract the $1.5 billion in Opex, operating costs, and... R&D... Net profit second half: $476 million. Tesla reported a net profit of $721 million in 2020. By then, it already had a market capitalization of $668.9 billion. Violent repricing? ...we'll see...

In any case, this helps us observe that:

The volume of deliveries should not fall below 250,000 units in the next 6 months. For reference, 211,878 vehicles were sold in the second half of 2025.

The gross margin should not fall below 18% if the company intends to achieve its first profitable fiscal year.

And the average selling price (ASP) should not be less than $37,000... In other words, NIO needs its high-end ES8/ES9 SUVs (F-segment).

Are you tired of the gaslighting on social media about NIO? It is genuinely psychotic that people are claiming NIO is a poorly run company. Claiming that Rivian is a better company. Claiming that Xpeng is a better company.

A company is not the stock and the stock is not the company.

NIO has a CAGR of 60%+, how many US companies are growing as fast as NIO. NIO has achieved operational profitability for two consecutive quarters, now going on three. NIO's ASP not only exceeds luxury BBA EVs, NIO is outselling luxury BBA EVs.

Unlike Tesla artificially generating profit by selling billions in carbon credits gifted from the US government, NIO has achieved profit by actually selling cars.

NIO achieved 107,658 deliveries in Q2 2026, Tesla only achieved 126,157 deliveries in Q2 2026 despite having a nearly 10 year lead and massive resources, massive capitalization, the full backing of the US government.

NIO sold 40,597 vehicles in one month. Rivian sold 42,247 vehicles given a full year.

Who is winning the top customer service awards? NIO. Who has the highest EV resale values? NIO. Who has the largest battery swap network in China? NIO.

NIO gen 5 battery swap stations charge an EV in about 90 seconds. BYD flash charging takes 10 minutes and gets your battery hot enough (170°F) to cook an egg.

The goal of anti-NIO trolls always seems to be to justify and rationalize the low stock price. Flooding social media with stupid comments about how "NIO dilutes stock" and "that's why the market capitalization is low", not the clear manipulation, or coordinated and active suppression.

Most of the attacks on social media by anti-NIO trolls lack any critical thinking, lack metrics and context, they're just "feels" and even lies. There are valid criticisms of NIO, but being a poorly run company is not one of them.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡Ok.This is how I think it plays out before the Q2 earnings report. NIO appears to be completing the final leg of a bullish Gartley harmonic pattern, with the completion zone around $4.10.

That area also lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, a psychological $10 billion market cap, and a long-term ascending trendline connecting the stock's historical lows. For this scenario to be invalidated, NIO would likely have to push above $7. I don't see that happening in the near term without a meaningful increase in volume or a major catalyst.

Could we see a bounce first? Absolutely. In fact, it's fairly likely. NIO's Hong Kong listing just printed a green weekly compression candle, so a relief rally toward the 200-day EMA around $5.50 wouldn't be surprising.

Having these reference points may help investors manage their exposure more effectively. This isn't the Holy Grail, nor is it guaranteed to play out exactly this way, but I believe this is currently the highest-probability scenario.

If the stock eventually completes this move into the $4.10 area, it could also provide an opportunity to accumulate a larger share position ahead of what I believe could be a meaningful rally following the Q2 earnings report.

This is about market structure, not monthly delivery numbers. Whether NIO delivers 40,000 or 45,000 vehicles in July doesn't materially change or invalidate the thesis...

To be clear, I mean price action, not the company itself. NIO's June deliveries grew significantly, and the ES8 maintained its top position in the large SUV segment. With the ES9 coming, I imagine it's just going to continue that.

From a technical perspective momentum is a bit shaky, but the 2W trend is still holding, so we are still on trend in the big picture. This gives me some confidence that the recent moves down might be a short-term pullback. Honestly, though, we need the market as a whole to get it's crap together.

I'm still holding but man it's been rough lately. Anyone else feeling the pain?

NIO deliveries have been consistently going up and up in the last 3 years, in the process making NIO number 1 in luxury EV sales, number 1 in customer satisfaction, number 1 in resale value, number 1 in safety!

However that green line will shoot up like never before when June delivery numbers come out tomorrow, blasting to stratosphere , fuelled by NIO’s most expensive/highest margin modelsES8/ES9 and ONVO’s L80/L90.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡This time, the market's reaction probably makes more sense.

Going into the June delivery report, expectations had been elevated. The launch of the ES9, the third-generation ES8, and the recently introduced ONVO L80, combined with a noticeable acceleration in order activity across social media—where NIO appeared to be comfortably outperforming its peers—led many investors to expect monthly deliveries in excess of 45,000 units.

Instead, the June report showed only a modest improvement over May. As a result, it is reasonable to conclude that the market interpreted the figures as a sign of slowing momentum.

We do not yet have the detailed delivery breakdown, but it appears that the largest weakness may have come from the "5566" lineup (ET5, ET5 Touring, ES6, EC6, etc.). ONVO, meanwhile, essentially maintained May's delivery levels, while Firefly continued to gain momentum.

Firefly's June performance brought first-half deliveries to 29,172 units, representing year-over-year growth of 271.9%—nearly a fourfold increase—making it the fastest-growing of the group's three brands during the period.

Even so, I believe the current delivery volume, combined with the company's improving average selling price (ASP), should still be sufficient to produce another profitable quarter. That, in my view, is not the primary issue.

That said, I would not rule out further weakness in the stock over the very short term. The price could continue testing new lows, perhaps even around $4.40, which appears to be a fairly solid support level, before attention shifts toward September, when NIO has historically reported its Q2 financial results.

There is also a broader web of circumstances—many of them unrelated to the company's underlying operations—that helps explain the persistently weak trading volume and depressed market capitalization.

It is also worth noting that the ONVO L60 is no longer performing as strongly as it did last year. In 2025 it was the brand's best-selling model, but current sales are well below those earlier levels.

The NIO brand itself delivered 21,908 vehicles in June, up from 20,013 in May. Since the ES9 began deliveries during the month and may have contributed roughly 8,000 units, while the third-generation ES8 likely added around 11,000 units, it is reasonable to infer that deliveries of the "5566" series may have declined modestly.

Seasonality should also be taken into account. July has historically been a slower delivery month, so deliveries in the neighborhood of 35,000 units would not be surprising. Hopefully, the recently launched five-seat ES8 will provide some additional support.

Looking further ahead, I believe deliveries of roughly 250,000 vehicles during the second half of the year remain achievable. That would place the company near the lower end of its own guidance, with monthly deliveries generally ranging between 35,000 and 40,000 units, while quarter-end months—particularly December—could potentially approach 50,000 deliveries.

Under that scenario, I believe NIO could generate approximately $100–150 million in net profit for fiscal year 2026.

Finally, although it would be somewhat unusual for a Chinese automaker, I believe management should consider announcing even a modest share repurchase program—perhaps a few hundred million dollars.

The financial impact alone would be relatively limited, but the signal it would send to the market could be far more important. It would effectively communicate that the company no longer feels compelled to preserve every dollar out of concern about its liquidity position.

Moreover, with NIO's market capitalization still far below historical levels, every dollar allocated to share repurchases would retire a meaningfully larger percentage of the outstanding shares than would have been possible when the stock traded at $20, $30, or even $40.

As a standalone catalyst, I believe a share buyback would rank among the most bullish announcements the company could realistically make.

Nio seeks Hong Kong primary listing to open door to Stock Connect

Nio has been in talks with Hong Kong regulators, hoping to convert to a primary listing without changing its user enterprise governance.

https://cnevpost.com/2026/06/24/nio-seeks-hk-primary-listing-stock-connect/

"Converting to a primary listing is a prerequisite for inclusion in Stock Connect and access to mainland investor capital."

Well, if this goes through, I suppose shorts will burn.

Beware Shorties, the Cult money is coming for you.

The milestone means that Nio has delivered 6,892 ES9s so far this month, considering that 3,108 units of the SUV were delivered last month.

https://cnevpost.com/2026/06/26/nio-hits-10000th-es9-delivery/

¡Follow us   r/NIO_Day⚡.  NIO today released purchase data for the first batch of L80 owners:

Over 90% of car owners chose the Battery as a Service (BaaS) leasing option.

62% of car owners chose the Max+ model.

58% of car owners chose the Jingyue Black exterior color.

Over 70% of car owners chose the Banyan Brown interior finish.

Over 55% of car owners chose the 21-inch six-spoke Obsidian Black wheels.

Over 70% of car owners chose the "Step by Step Rising" wing-shaped electric running boards.

More than 90% of early NIO L80 owners opted for the "Battery as a Service" (BaaS) battery leasing option, with prices starting at 156,800 yuan.

According to a previous IT Home report, the NIO Ledao L80 was launched on May 15. Positioned as a flagship smart SUV with a double cab and five seats, the new car has a starting price of 242,800 yuan for outright purchase and 156,800 yuan for the BaaS battery leasing option.

Advantage: The outright purchase price is 242,800 yuan, while the battery leasing option costs 156,800 yuan.

Max+: 259,800 yuan for the complete vehicle purchase and 173,800 yuan for the battery lease option.

Ultra+: 279,800 yuan for the complete vehicle, 193,800 yuan for the battery lease option.

The Ledao L80 is 5145 mm long and has a wheelbase of 3110 mm. It features a 240-liter power front trunk and a 1200-liter rear trunk. It offers two intelligent driving solutions: LiDAR and machine vision. The LiDAR version is equipped with the Shenji NX9031 intelligent driving assistance chip and the NIO World Model intelligent driving assistance system; the machine vision version incorporates an NVIDIA OrinX chip.

The car is equipped with a 17.2-inch 3K immersive central control display, as well as a Ledao sound system with 23 custom speakers, 2048 watts of power and 24 independent channels, which adopts a 7.1.4 channel configuration and is compatible with Dolby Atmos.

There has been SO MUCH good news recent even just looking at a snapshot of the past month (can reference on TradeRadar if desired). I can't help but feel like price action this week was a result of the general market trading down. If anything, we've mostly gotten better news this week.

On top of it, from a TA perspective we essentially bounced off the 1 week support since the initial run up from last year... Feels like bullishness hasn't died yet!

Is everything still holding confidence in what's coming?