u/InvestingLogic

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO⚡CNMO Technology reported that 81% of car owners chose the Max+ version. The new Ledao L60 is available in three configurations: Pro, Max+, and Ultra+.

The Pro version starts at RMB 192,900 for the complete vehicle and RMB 135,800 for the battery rental option; it features a full-domain 900V high-voltage architecture and the SkyOS operating system.

The Max+ version starts at RMB 202,800 for the complete vehicle and RMB 145,800 for the battery rental option; it adds to the Pro version a 5nm automotive-grade Shenji NX9031 chip, LiDAR, the NIO NWM intelligent driving model, and the Shenji safety imaging system.

The Ultra+ has a starting price of RMB 222,800 for the complete vehicle purchase and RMB 165,800 for battery leasing. It adds high-performance all-wheel drive, a rear-seat comfort and entertainment package, a new luxury interior package with Nappa leather accents, and 20-inch wheels to the Max+ version.

As for optional accessories, the rear-seat comfort and entertainment package is the most popular, chosen by 86% of owners. This package includes a Sky entertainment screen, a roof sunshade, a smart refrigerator and heater, and a folding table, catering to various needs such as watching movies, storing items, and relaxing during journeys.

Furthermore, among the exterior colors, Interstellar Gray is the most popular, with 45% of car owners choosing this paint; Starry Sky Black comes in second with 20%. In terms of interior, 56% of users prefer Lilac Purple, while another 18% of car owners choose Moon Brown; in terms of wheels, 19-inch ultra-low rolling resistance gloss black wheels are the most common, with 63% of car owners choosing them; and in terms of purchase method, 89% of car owners choose the Battery as a Service (BaaS) rental service.

The same thing is happening with the L80—where user preference had also climbed to 90%—indicating that the brand relies heavily on the battery subscription option.

If 85–90% choose BaaS, then:

the "real" price of the vehicle (excluding the battery) ceases to be relevant on its own
the financial ecosystem (swap + subscription) becomes the true core of the business
the brand begins to depend on the user not wanting to buy the battery

The L60 isn't having a great year at the moment; let's hope the company is considering an aggressive strategy to further boost the group's sales.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡CNMO Technology reported that 81% of car owners chose the Max+ version. The new Ledao L60 is available in three configurations: Pro, Max+, and Ultra+.

The Pro version starts at RMB 192,900 for the complete vehicle and RMB 135,800 for the battery rental option; it features a full-domain 900V high-voltage architecture and the SkyOS operating system.

The Max+ version starts at RMB 202,800 for the complete vehicle and RMB 145,800 for the battery rental option; it adds to the Pro version a 5nm automotive-grade Shenji NX9031 chip, LiDAR, the NIO NWM intelligent driving model, and the Shenji safety imaging system.

The Ultra+ has a starting price of RMB 222,800 for the complete vehicle purchase and RMB 165,800 for battery leasing. It adds high-performance all-wheel drive, a rear-seat comfort and entertainment package, a new luxury interior package with Nappa leather accents, and 20-inch wheels to the Max+ version.

As for optional accessories, the rear-seat comfort and entertainment package is the most popular, chosen by 86% of owners. This package includes a Sky entertainment screen, a roof sunshade, a smart refrigerator and heater, and a folding table, catering to various needs such as watching movies, storing items, and relaxing during journeys.

Furthermore, among the exterior colors, Interstellar Gray is the most popular, with 45% of car owners choosing this paint; Starry Sky Black comes in second with 20%. In terms of interior, 56% of users prefer Lilac Purple, while another 18% of car owners choose Moon Brown; in terms of wheels, 19-inch ultra-low rolling resistance gloss black wheels are the most common, with 63% of car owners choosing them; and in terms of purchase method, 89% of car owners choose the Battery as a Service (BaaS) rental service.

The same thing is happening with the L80—where user preference had also climbed to 90%—indicating that the brand relies heavily on the battery subscription option.

If 85–90% choose BaaS, then:

the "real" price of the vehicle (excluding the battery) ceases to be relevant on its own
the financial ecosystem (swap + subscription) becomes the true core of the business
the brand begins to depend on the user not wanting to buy the battery

The L60 isn't having a great year at the moment; let's hope the company is considering an aggressive strategy to further boost the group's sales.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡Ok.This is how I think it plays out before the Q2 earnings report. NIO appears to be completing the final leg of a bullish Gartley harmonic pattern, with the completion zone around $4.10.

That area also lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, a psychological $10 billion market cap, and a long-term ascending trendline connecting the stock's historical lows. For this scenario to be invalidated, NIO would likely have to push above $7. I don't see that happening in the near term without a meaningful increase in volume or a major catalyst.

Could we see a bounce first? Absolutely. In fact, it's fairly likely. NIO's Hong Kong listing just printed a green weekly compression candle, so a relief rally toward the 200-day EMA around $5.50 wouldn't be surprising.

Having these reference points may help investors manage their exposure more effectively. This isn't the Holy Grail, nor is it guaranteed to play out exactly this way, but I believe this is currently the highest-probability scenario.

If the stock eventually completes this move into the $4.10 area, it could also provide an opportunity to accumulate a larger share position ahead of what I believe could be a meaningful rally following the Q2 earnings report.

This is about market structure, not monthly delivery numbers. Whether NIO delivers 40,000 or 45,000 vehicles in July doesn't materially change or invalidate the thesis...

¡Síguenos 👉 r/NIO_Day ⚡The lesson Lynch wanted to convey was quite simple:

If you've done a good fundamental analysis, a temporary 80% drop in the market doesn't automatically mean your thesis is wrong.

It's impossible to systematically buy at the bottom.

The market can take years to recognize a company's true value.

However, Lynch wasn't saying "just ride out any drop." In his books, he insists that you have to continually review your thesis. If the fundamentals change, sell ; if the fundamentals remain intact and only the price has fallen, the drop alone doesn't invalidate the investment.

Peter Lynch is an American investor, mutual fund manager, author and philanthropist. As the manager of the Magellan Fund at Fidelity Investments between 1977 and 1990, Lynch averaged a 29.2% annual return, consistently outperforming S&P 500 stock market index and making it the best-performing mutual fund in the world.

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡ Regarding what Deutsche Bank said recently... Well, apparently ES8 sales reached 8,900 units in June... a number that could be interpreted as a slowdown, but we'll have to see if that's actually the case. According to the bank, several buyers have preferred to wait for the launch of the five-seater ES8, and it's also possible that there has been some cannibalization of sales from its "big brother," the ES9.

The company also mentions that this year, the gross margin attributed to other income (BaaS - Battery as a Service, Software and Subscriptions (SaaS), Ancillary Sales and After-Sales, etc.) will reach 20%. This improves the overall gross margin. In Q1, ES8 sales represented 54.14% of the total 83,465 vehicles delivered. Well, it's very difficult to expect to match that. In Q2, we would have 33,395 ES8s and about 11,000 ES9s. Taking the average selling price (ASP) of all three versions, 11,000 ES9s would be equivalent to selling about 15,000 ES8s. In a sort of cumulative total, that would give us about 49,000 ES8s for Q2. Therefore, the ASP for Q2 wouldn't be that far off from what was achieved in Q1. In Q2, it would represent 46% of total sales. The ASP in Q1, with that 54% for ES8s, was $39,570 per vehicle. Taking the company's average estimate that 70% of customers acquire their vehicles with BaaS, this would give an average selling price (ASP) for the ES8 of approximately $49,000 USD... In short... Approximate numbers for Q2 and a comparison with the previous two quarters:

Q4: $36,215 USD

Q1: $39,570 USD

Q2: $37,900 USD (estimated).

Decrease: $1,667 USD per vehicle (-4.2%).

Approximate vehicle revenue, $4.08 billion. To that, we would have to add other revenue that could be around $400-450 million... In Q4, where NIO earned $48 million in profit, the average revenue per vehicle (ASP) was $36,215. In Q2, there were 107,658 deliveries, which is 17,150 fewer sales compared to Q4, but the ASP is $1,700 higher per vehicle. Let's assume this is the revenue, which does not include other income. Let's take $420 million, which is an average of the other revenue from Q4 and Q1. This would bring the total to $4.5 billion in gross revenue. Operating expenses Q4/Q1: rigid cost structure. SG&A + R&D

Q4: $795.5M USD

Q1: $780.3M USD

Therefore, we also use this Opex for our estimate, which showed almost no variation in the last two quarters, Q4/Q1. With an estimated gross margin of 18% on revenue, that gives us $810M. Net profit could be around $30 million. As Deutsche Bank said, right at the break-even point. Each percentage point improvement in the gross margin would be about $45 million, which, less depreciation, would go towards net profit.

The conclusion of all this is that if the company maintains these operating costs and can continue optimizing the business, as it is in fact doing, even within this sales volume range of 40,000 monthly sales, to achieve favorable objectives it still depends on models like the ES8/ES9. That is, on models that can support an average selling price (ASP) that doesn't depreciate. Let's assume it manages to sell those 250,000 units in the second half of the year that we projected, maintaining this ASP of $38,000. This adds $900 million to the "other income" category and maintains a total gross margin of 19%. Let's assume an operating expense (Opex) of $1.5 billion for the entire semester. That would be approximately $10.4 billion in gross income, with a gross margin of $1.976 billion. From that, we subtract the $1.5 billion in Opex, operating costs, and... R&D... Net profit second half: $476 million. Tesla reported a net profit of $721 million in 2020. By then, it already had a market capitalization of $668.9 billion. Violent repricing? ...we'll see...

In any case, this helps us observe that:

The volume of deliveries should not fall below 250,000 units in the next 6 months. For reference, 211,878 vehicles were sold in the second half of 2025.

The gross margin should not fall below 18% if the company intends to achieve its first profitable fiscal year.

And the average selling price (ASP) should not be less than $37,000... In other words, NIO needs its high-end ES8/ES9 SUVs (F-segment).

¡Follow us 👉  r/NIO_Day⚡This time, the market's reaction probably makes more sense.

Going into the June delivery report, expectations had been elevated. The launch of the ES9, the third-generation ES8, and the recently introduced ONVO L80, combined with a noticeable acceleration in order activity across social media—where NIO appeared to be comfortably outperforming its peers—led many investors to expect monthly deliveries in excess of 45,000 units.

Instead, the June report showed only a modest improvement over May. As a result, it is reasonable to conclude that the market interpreted the figures as a sign of slowing momentum.

We do not yet have the detailed delivery breakdown, but it appears that the largest weakness may have come from the "5566" lineup (ET5, ET5 Touring, ES6, EC6, etc.). ONVO, meanwhile, essentially maintained May's delivery levels, while Firefly continued to gain momentum.

Firefly's June performance brought first-half deliveries to 29,172 units, representing year-over-year growth of 271.9%—nearly a fourfold increase—making it the fastest-growing of the group's three brands during the period.

Even so, I believe the current delivery volume, combined with the company's improving average selling price (ASP), should still be sufficient to produce another profitable quarter. That, in my view, is not the primary issue.

That said, I would not rule out further weakness in the stock over the very short term. The price could continue testing new lows, perhaps even around $4.40, which appears to be a fairly solid support level, before attention shifts toward September, when NIO has historically reported its Q2 financial results.

There is also a broader web of circumstances—many of them unrelated to the company's underlying operations—that helps explain the persistently weak trading volume and depressed market capitalization.

It is also worth noting that the ONVO L60 is no longer performing as strongly as it did last year. In 2025 it was the brand's best-selling model, but current sales are well below those earlier levels.

The NIO brand itself delivered 21,908 vehicles in June, up from 20,013 in May. Since the ES9 began deliveries during the month and may have contributed roughly 8,000 units, while the third-generation ES8 likely added around 11,000 units, it is reasonable to infer that deliveries of the "5566" series may have declined modestly.

Seasonality should also be taken into account. July has historically been a slower delivery month, so deliveries in the neighborhood of 35,000 units would not be surprising. Hopefully, the recently launched five-seat ES8 will provide some additional support.

Looking further ahead, I believe deliveries of roughly 250,000 vehicles during the second half of the year remain achievable. That would place the company near the lower end of its own guidance, with monthly deliveries generally ranging between 35,000 and 40,000 units, while quarter-end months—particularly December—could potentially approach 50,000 deliveries.

Under that scenario, I believe NIO could generate approximately $100–150 million in net profit for fiscal year 2026.

Finally, although it would be somewhat unusual for a Chinese automaker, I believe management should consider announcing even a modest share repurchase program—perhaps a few hundred million dollars.

The financial impact alone would be relatively limited, but the signal it would send to the market could be far more important. It would effectively communicate that the company no longer feels compelled to preserve every dollar out of concern about its liquidity position.

Moreover, with NIO's market capitalization still far below historical levels, every dollar allocated to share repurchases would retire a meaningfully larger percentage of the outstanding shares than would have been possible when the stock traded at $20, $30, or even $40.

As a standalone catalyst, I believe a share buyback would rank among the most bullish announcements the company could realistically make.